In an incongruous turn of events in Egypt, on June 30, when President Morsi completes one year in office, it will also be the day when the country is hoping to repeat what it achieved in January 2011 – the ouster of a dictator. This time the target is the increasingly authoritarian government headed by President Morsi, which is ironical because it was the success of the revolution that brought him into power in the first place.
As the winner of Egypt’s first democratic presidential election, Morsi has many firsts to his credit, being the first Islamist elected as head of an Arab state and also the first president of Egypt, outside the military.
Morsi’s party, the Muslim Brotherhood, though only marginally involved in the Egyptian Revolution, was quick to fill the void once representative democracy was put in place. It had been the only opposition group during Mubarak’s autocratic rule and had a head start over the other political parties that were still trying to organise themselves and extend their reach to the grass-root level. As its presidential candidate, Morsi’s rise to take the top job in the populous Arab country had little to do with merit; in fact, he was a little-known figure in Egypt till then.
Egypt has already been through two democratic processes since the revolution. In the first one, an unprecedented number of people voted and were in favour of immediately amending the constitution that would end military rule, and for holding of elections within six months. The second catapulted Morsi as president over his rival, who was favoured by the army and regarded as a remnant of the old regime.
In fact, in both cases, the vote was not as much for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, as it was against the old regime and continuing military rule. It was a vote in favour of a chance for political and economic stability to prevail after the cataclysmic events of the revolution.
But, by no means was the revolution over. There were some revolutionaries who had boycotted the elections, protesting the lack of real choice and continued to show their dissent to any act of subjugation by the state. The fact that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood seemed to think that the democratic process ends with the ballot box, as has been evident through their increasingly authoritarian and non-inclusive actions and policies, has only added to the dissatisfied numbers.
It was no secret that the Muslim Brotherhood espoused Islamist ideology, but in order to appease those who feared that as President, Morsi would pursue an "Islamist" agenda, he had promised to work as a president representing all Egyptians.
However, the skeptics were soon proven right as in November last year, Morsi enacted a decree that gave him sweeping powers and ensured that his party would continue to have control over the drafting of the constitution and the Upper House of the Parliament, irrespective of the changes in political leadership. He cracked down on women’s rights and started to fill up key positions in the country with Brotherhood supporters and sympathisers.
There has been a definite move to "Islamise" Egyptian culture and identity, and in a rejection of this attempt, since June 5, a group of prominent filmmakers and other Egyptian artists have been staging a sit-in, demanding the removal of the cultural secretary.
The political instability has aggravated the economic downturn. The rating agencies and investors feel that there can be little hope of an economic recovery in the present political scenario, which discourages tourism and foreign investment. Power cuts, rising food prices, a deteriorating security situation, economic woes and curtailed social freedoms are only some of the problems faced by the Arab state.
In fact, Morsi and the Brotherhood have managed to steer themselves in the unenviable position of becoming the enemy of the revolution’s goals, just as the army and the police before them, within only a year of assuming power.
Against this backdrop comes in "Tamarrod" (rebel), a grass-roots movement, which is organising the effort for June 30, and was established less than two months ago. It claims to have already collected more than 15m signatures endorsing anti-Morsi and anti-Brotherhood protests. A large number of opposition groups, youth groups and hitherto apathetic citizens have pledged to march to the Presidential Palace in a show of no-confidence.
The stage seems to be set for a showdown between Morsi supporters and the disenchanted Egyptian people. There is speculation that the protests are going to be massive; Morsi’s critics are calling it the "day of salvation” or the "second Egyptian revolution." Morsi’s supporters are dismissing the planned protests as being instigated by "atheists" and Christians. The sentiment on the streets seems to be “Anything or anyone will be better than Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Yet, what remains unclear is, what is sought to be achieved on June 30.
That the day may be marred by violence seems to be a foregone conclusion. The last sit-in at Tahrir in January, earlier this year, coinciding with the second anniversary of the revolution, degenerated into days of violence. This time, the army is believed to be deploying at Tahrir ahead of June 30, and Morsi’s supporters are also gearing up to take on the protestors. One can hope that the country does not get sucked into a spiraling vortex of violence, which results in loss of lives and more damage to the social and economic fabric of the nation.
The signatures collected by Tamarrod have no legal binding, and Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood may choose to crack down on the protestors and completely ignore popular sentiment. The outcome that is the most hyped and is being hoped for, is that on seeing the huge numbers congregating at the presidential palace, Morsi may be persuaded to resign on moral grounds, and call for early presidential elections.
But does this scenario achieve the goals of the revolution? In the event that Egypt goes in for another round of elections, are the democratic institutions strong enough to ensure that elections will be free and fair? Egypt’s opposition is fragmented, and needs to consolidate and resolve its crisis in leadership. Will the opposition be able to provide effective leadership to the country? Egyptian society is often perceived as a homogenous group, at the most consisting of two interest groups – the Muslims and the Christians, but in reality the Egyptian political landscape is more complex than that. Will the different sides be able to reach a compromise so as to facilitate the transition of the fledgling Egyptian democracy into a mature one?
Two and a half years earlier, Egyptians had amazed the world by uniting peacefully against a repressive and autocratic regime. Since then, they have continued to show immense political awareness and have returned to Tahrir on every occasion where the revolution was threatened.
The Egyptians definitely know their way to Tahrir Square. But it is time they learn that establishing a democratic state is a process and cannot be achieved overnight. They need to find a way to come together for a national dialogue to work towards a sustainable political solution that will finally achieve the goals of the Revolution and allow them to enjoy the fruits of their labour.
