The Northeast region of India had long been a source of contention for India's peace. Due to geopolitical reasons, the territory is almost split off from the mainland, resulting in a slew of deprivations in the region.
The ferocity of insurgencies in the past had previously led everyone to believe that India's split was inevitable and only a matter of time. After 68 years on the route of rebels and numerous and varied attempts by the Indian government, insurgency in the Northeast area is at an all-time low. Can India, however, breathe a sigh of relief just yet? With fresh rebel regroupings, the China factor, and Beijing's major inroads into Myanmar, is it difficult for India to unwind at the moment?
Poor connectivity, perceived isolation, insurgency in some states, growing vulnerability to terrorism, ethnic conflicts, cross-border linkages, including cultural ties with countries such as China and Myanmar, inter-tribal feuds for dominance, and poor economic development are some of the strategic concerns that make the current security situation in the Northeast region extremely difficult to deal with, but strategically necessary to address.
The region sits on the fringes of three significant political powers: India, China, and Myanmar. Some served as buffer villages, while others served as link communities between these three nations. The earliest insurgency originates in 1947 when the Nagas demanded their sovereignty. That has prompted the other six states to pursue independence. Bloodshed, tribal feuds, and underdevelopment have blighted the history of this region since then.
The Indian government employs both hard and soft power in its counter-insurgency campaign. In the lack of a political settlement at the outset of the crisis, the government used military force and even implemented the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), which permits authorities to arrest, question, and use force against a suspect without a legal or formal warrant.
According to empirical knowledge, insurgencies, especially in democracies, require a politically negotiated settlement. In the states, elected governments with fully working administrations have existed for a long time. Most rebel factions have signed or are nearing signing deals owing to negotiations, talks, and the government's appealing rehabilitation offer.
According to the ministry of home affairs' annual report, insurgent occurrences have decreased by 80% in six of the eight northeastern states since 2014, while security force casualties have lowered by 75% and civilian deaths have dropped by 95%. Due to substantial improvement in the security situation and rapid development and political deals with rebel groups, the central government has lately decreased the number of disturbed regions under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, or AFSPA, in Assam, Nagaland, and Manipur.
Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, China, and Myanmar encircle the region known as the Seven Sisters. From the perspective of Bangladesh and Bhutan, India has had relatively uninterrupted peace. India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, has even stated that India and Bangladesh share peaceful borders and praised the close relationship.
Bangladesh had often served as a coadjutor in suppressing insurgencies in the region, as the subconscious protector of its closest neighbour. Bangladesh handed over the entire ULFA leadership as well as the leaders of the Bodo Insurgency to India. Bangladesh's zero-tolerance terrorist policy benefited India greatly, as insurgencies in the area were a major headache for the country.
However, India must be wary of China. The Chinese claim to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as its South Tibet poses a severe threat to Northeastern security. It's also worth remembering that India has been experiencing tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for the past few years. Despite India's strong defensive stance, the Northeastern states are connected to the rest of India via the Siliguri Corridor, which has a short width of only 17 kilometres and mentally separates Northeast India. In the recent past, the Doklam issue along the LAC was sparked by China's desire to get closer to the corridor.
China has centuries-old ties to the Northeast, including tribal ties between the Nagas and Yunnan Province. Although there has not been any direct Chinese backing for insurgency in the region in recent years, previous experiences of China sheltering some Indian rebel leaders do not rule out suspicion.
China's large-scale dam and river connectivity projects represent a severe threat to water security, not just in the Northeast but also in South Asia. South Asia faces challenges as a result of China's use of water as a strategic weapon in the absence of any meaningful pact. India and Bangladesh must also be concerned about water shortages that may arise as a result of Chinese water diversion and hydropower projects, which could strain bilateral relations.
Although the lowest insurgent incidents in Northeast India provide good news, there are still some areas that remain at a standstill. China, as the region's astute player, with its wingman Myanmar, puts Northeast India's security in jeopardy, as well as the security of the entire region.
Anup Sinha is an independent researcher of South Asian affairs, specially focused on India.
