The psychological warfare pervading the China Seas has begun in the Far East Theatre. It is a kind of Cold War.
On one side of this war is the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and on the other side are the Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, and Japan as well as the US and Australia.
This Cold War began in reaction to the expansionist policy of the PRC in the China Seas. Over the past few decades, the unprecedented economic and technological development of China has helped the country strengthen its military power and elevate to the status of a superpower.
As China gained its status as a superpower, it has focused on expanding its sphere of influence in the China Seas, causing it to keep away the territorial rights of the Far Eastern countries in the region.
To the strength of China, its rival Far Eastern countries are quite weak in terms of military and strategic power, for which they are unable to respond.
However, Japan being one of its long-term rivals is capable of military and strategic power, and has not remained passive at China’s expansionist moves. It has been pursuing various strategic activities in cooperation with the US on far-reaching plans.
At present, the conflict between China and Japan over the China Seas has become quite visible. The US and Australia have joined to support Japan in this conflict. The former has expressed suspicion that China has tested a low-powered nuclear weapon in the wake of the corona epidemic.
The US and Australia operated a joint naval exercise in the South China Sea. Amid this escalating conflict, US warships have sailed into disputed waters in the South China Sea, heightening a stand-off in the waterway and sharpening the rivalry between the US and China. Meanwhile, Japan has continued to conduct various military and strategic activities to counter China.
Explaining China’s expansionist policy
To unravel the mystery of the above-mentioned conflict that has been visible in recent years, one has to look deeper. The underlying reason for this conflict is in China’s unusual military and strategic moves in the China Seas. This is divided into two parts -- the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
China has claimed almost all of the China Seas to be its waters. Accordingly, it has drawn a map in support of its claim -- many countries in the Far East will lose their archipelago as well as sovereignty over economic maritime territory to China.
The archipelago includes the islands of Sengoku in the maritime territory owned by Japan in the East China Sea and the Spratley Islands in the maritime territory claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the South China Sea.
China claimed its rights in the China Seas for the first time in the 1960s, soon after it commenced as the PRC, which was established through the socialist revolution.
However, it did not show much concentration for this claim at the start. But in the year 2011, it suddenly became more and more active and issued a stern warning to rival countries that enjoyed territorial rights in the China Seas until then.
Since 2013, it has begun building runways for military bases in the Paracel Islands claimed by Vietnam as well as the Spratley Islands claimed by Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei. This has continued with a variety of installations under construction.
As the construction of these facilities has gone on, the movements of the Chinese military carriers have increased. Military experts have described these operations as military manoeuvres in support of China’s expansionist policy.
Response of Far Eastern countries
Japan and Southeast Asian countries have kept on protesting directly in response to China’s expansionist move. Furthermore, these countries have continued dialogues over this issue of rights regarding the China Seas at various regional and international forums.
Along with these countries, the US, Australia, and India have expressed their concerns over Chinese expansionism because the Chinese move on the China Seas will put other countries of the world at a disadvantage as well.
It will cause the loss of sovereignty of the Far Eastern countries in the China Seas. At the same time, other countries will fall into various obligations that have interests in the South China Sea.
Any foreign ship crossing the China Seas will be deemed to be using the waters of China. That is why many countries in the world, including the US, Australia, and India, have continued to express concern on this issue.
A shift in US policy and the emergence of Japan
In response to the recent hegemony of China over the China Seas, the US has made sweeping changes in its military and strategic policy. The purpose of this change is to counter the expansionist initiatives of China in the China Seas militarily and strategically.
Therefore, the US has needed strategic allies to implement the policy required to face China militarily and strategically in the Asia-Pacific region. As a part of this move, it has chosen its one-time enemy Japan as a reliable ally.
The thinking being that Japan, which will instantly fall into a disadvantage at the implementation of China’s expansionist policy, can become a strong ally. The US values Japan as an ally as it has both strategic and combative capabilities.
In WWII, Japan was occupied by the US and then became subservient to the US. At that time, Japan had to adopt a constitution with a provision to abandon its imperialist war policy under the pressure of the US.
It was forced to resize its military into a small and limited homeland defense force. As a result of this restructuring of the Japanese armed forces, the production and sale of Japanese weapons halted. The US then took charge of Japan’s defense.
Achieving Japan’s military and strategic capabilities
As part of the military and strategic shift to deal with China, the US recently relaxed restrictions on the expansion of armed forces, arms production, and arms sales of Japan. So this shift in US strategic policy in favour of Japan can be described as a remarkable international event.
This shift in US policy has provided Japan a golden opportunity to become a military power. The US strategic policy in favour of Japan came to surface a few years back, which opened up the military and strategic activities, paving the way for Japan to become a major power.
We can speculate this upswing of Japan from its recent moves towards the achievement of military and strategic activities. From the very beginning, the US and Japan have adopted a shared strategic measure to counter the expansionist activities of China.
However, the dismal constitution made in 1948 prevents Japan from going for military activities. Japan cannot wage war against China just because of its constitutional obligations. Again, the direct sanction of the US prevents Japan from going to war.
But, to counter China, the US lifted all direct and indirect sanctions on Japan. The issue of withdrawal of US sanctions over Japan was first noticed in July 2014. Japan then amended the Ninth Constitution with direct support of the US, and the Shinzo Abe-led government explained that this amendment had created a constitutional right for Japan to go to war.
In actuality, through this amendment of the constitution, Japan regained the right to fight against any country of the world. Thus, Japan’s restoration of rights has been derived from the will of the US to build a strong ally against China.
When the move of the constitutional amendment was undertaken, it was directly opposed by its neighbouring countries, including China, North Korea, and South Korea, who described it as the manifestation of the real face of imperialist Japan.
Initiatives of Japan to increase combat capability
The history of Japan over the past decade is a history of military might and a history of resisting China. Since last year, Japan has focused on building its military power with full vigour. Japan’s strategic activities within the country, at the regional level and the international level, are eye-catching.
Japan has now focused on military formation, arms production and sales, and military cooperation with other countries. It is moving ahead with a high-tech plan to increase its water-land-space combat capability.
It has taken an initiative to build a new generation of fighter jets (F-35 stealth fighter jets) as part of military cooperation with the US. Moreover, it has gestured towards a departure from its previous nuclear policy, for which it has not yet signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
But it is surprising that Japan has so far taken a stand against nuclear weapons. All of these current moves can thus be speculated as to the preparedness of Japan towards the mass production of weapons.
It has issued licenses for arms production and sales to various domestic corporate agencies, which have been now putting efforts towards the mass production of military weapons. These are high-grade weapons.
Since 2005, Japan’s navy has put effort into strengthening through attack submarines. So far, 11 submarines have been commissioned. Most recently, on April 7, 2020, a new Soryu class submarine, built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, was added.
Japan has been accumulating offensive warplanes to enhance the capabilities of its air force. Most of these warplanes have been manufactured domestically in Japan. It recently signed an agreement to procure 135 F-35 fighter jets from the US. It has already joined the international peacekeeping mission and built a military base in Djibouti.
Japan is now reportedly supplying weapons to its allies in Southeast Asia either through an agreement or as an aid to build a defense against China. The Philippines tops the list of Southeast Asian arms buyers of Japanese weapons.
In March, the Mitsubishi Corporation undertook the deal of supplying radar defense worth $90 million to the Philippines. In a similar move, the National Electric Company (NEC) signed a contract with Vietnam to set up a defense system, which includes putting a satellite into orbit.
Strategic activities of Japan
Japan is spending the lion’s share of its military and strategic force in the Far East to counter China. Its main purpose is to protect the Sengoku Island claimed by it, located in the East China Sea and to establish its maritime rights to counter the expansionism of China over the South China Sea.
It has reportedly been encountering unusual movements of Chinese warships and warplanes involved in conducting war games in the air and sea in Japanese territory. Japan has reported facing Chinese military activities in its waters and airspace. In the last financial year (April 2019-March 2020) alone, Japan has reportedly encountered 65 Chinese warplanes in its skies.
Japan has expressed concern that the Chinese warships have continued to operate in Japan’s territorial waters, while Chinese fishing ships are often seen in Japanese waters. It has now taken a firm stance against all these activities.
Recently, it has taken steps to relocate all of its businesses and factories from China as part of a strategic plan to reduce its dependence on China’s manufacturing prowess.
Accordingly, the Shinzo Abe government has announced a financial grant to support expenses to be incurred in relocating the businesses and factories based in China.
Future of psychological warfare
The strategic rivalry that began in the last decade has now turned alarming. China has continued its military domination in the China Seas, and in response, its opponents are putting efforts towards their own military preparedness so that they can establish their rights in the territorial waters. This tension is causing the Far Eastern waters to become a long-term conflict zone.
As China has continued its efforts to establish its domination in the China Seas, the countries of the Far East are also preparing to fight for their own rights. Since none of the stakeholders of this conflict are moving away from their stance, there is no guarantee that the current conflict will not turn into a war.
And if war breaks out, the US and Australia are sure to join the Far Eastern countries against China. If a war breaks out, it will likely lead to a pervasive war. This speculated war in the Far East is pushing the world towards an uncertain future.
Though the future of this psychological war cannot be seen at this time, the move towards the recovery of the lost military might of Japan has been seen. So, it will not be a surprise if Japan emerges as a superpower in the future.
Dr ABM Razaul Karim Faquire is a Professor of Japanese Language and Culture at the Institute of Modern Languages, University of Dhaka.
