The sun sets on the Japanese horizon.
A major industrial, economic, as well as a military power before World War II, Japan got embroiled, wittingly or unwittingly in the war and was eventually defeated by the Allied forces' massive attack including the US, dropping two atom bombs in the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945, respectively.
The effect of the atom bombs, first time in the history of mankind not only devastated the two Japanese cities, killing hundreds of thousands of people instantly, the ferocity and scale of the death and destruction shook the conscience of the Japanese people and hastened the process of unconditional surrender of the country to the US.
The instrument of surrender was signed on September 2, 1945, before the Commander of the US Army General McArthur. The US, being the occupying power, took over the entire control of Japan and set its future course. The military was disbanded, the Imperial Constitution was abrogated and major social, political, and domestic reforms were undertaken to create a modern democratic nation, in the mould of Western democracies. Following the signing of the 1951 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with the US in 1951 (revised in 1960), ending the seven years of American occupation, Japan regained its independence in 1952.
The revised constitution of Japan, framed in 1946 under the direction of the US Command, inter alia, provided for renunciation of war and forbade the establishment of its armed forces. However, following the gaining of independence, in partial modifications of its constitution, Japan created its army in 1954 and called it Self Defence Force (SDF).
Rising like a phoenix
Traumatized and humbled by the defeat and the atomic bomb attack, the nation went through a period of soul-searching and reinvented its inherent strength for a quiet rise. The security of Japan being underwritten by the US, the country devoted itself to industrialization and achieving economic prosperity. Within less than a decade, Japan reemerged as an economic powerhouse.
At the same time, it also began its foreign aid program in 1960, on top of making payment of war reparation and damages to the affected nations. By 1968, Japan became the second-largest economy in the world but conceded the position to China in 2010. Intending to erase the international, and regional negative perception of the country due to its wartime history, Japan commenced its ODA program and provided large amounts of financing to its immediate neighbours, including China and Korea.
According to reports, Japan's ODA to China over a period of 40 years until 2022 was 3.66 trillion Japanese Yen, in addition to 380 billion Yen in grant aid and technical cooperation. It's interesting to note that Japan was the first country aligned Western powers to provide an ODA to China amounting to US 5.54bn in 1979 in the hope that “the emergence of a more prosperous China is a path to a better world.”
Similarly, Japan's monetary assistance to South Korea was also significant, while a large amount of aid to North Korea is being contemplated. One cannot deny the impact of Japanese aid to the SEA countries over the decades contributing to their economic success and development. Japan also extended its generous contribution to the South Asian Countries ever since they started their ODA program. The African continent, the countries of Middle East, Central Asia, East Europe as well as those in South America were also not left out from Japan's outreach program.
Today, it stands as the third largest provider of international aid behind the US and Germany.
During Covid -19 pandemic, Japan provided over $1.5bn in foreign aid to health and medical centres around the globe. In addition it also released $4.5bn to implement Covid-19 Crisis Response Emergency Support Loan to support developing economies hit hard by the crisis.
A policy paradigm shift
Notwithstanding pursuing a pacifist foreign policy aimed at promotion of global trade, investment and development, of late, there appears to be a conspicuous shift in Japan's security policy, largely owing to the evolving situation in the region and beyond. While the US, which has been maintaining several military bases in Japan at a considerable cost and has been coaxing the country to share the cost and also enhance its defense spending, the phenomenal rise of China as the second largest economic power in the globe together with its rising corresponding military capability and belligerent attitude, have been sending chilled shiver in Japan's spine coupled with heightened nervousness.
China's expressed threat of “using force if necessary,” hasn't been taken lightly by Japan but with great concern, especially so when it has territorial disputes with the former. In the face of the mounting tension in the region, not only with the Taiwan and East and South China Sea issues, Japan felt it a sine qua non urgency to review and overhaul its foreign and security policies and made strategic alliances with like-minded nations.
Under the changed circumstances, the late Prime Minister of Japan Shizo Abe, while visiting India in August 2007 made a seminal speech at the Indian Parliament, conceptualizing a new idea -- confluence of two seas,” stressing that the Pacific and Indian Ocean were coming together to form a sea of “freedom and democracy,” which over the years morphed into Open and Free Indo Pacific (OFIP).
Although it didn't receive much enthusiasm initially, the border skirmishes between China and India in Ladakh in 2020, influenced the four countries, for example, the US, India, Japan, and Australia to come together to form a security alliance called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD, aka “Indo-Pacific Strategy” (IPS) to address the emerging situation.
The first summit of the Quad leaders was virtually hosted by President Biden on March 24, 2021. As a corollary to the Quad summit the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in December of the same year, laid out the US's Indo-Pacific Strategy envisioning for “a free, open, connected, prosperous, resilient, and secure Indo -- Pacific region in which all countries are empowered to adapt to the 21st century's challenges and seize its many opportunities.” All four members have adopted the IPS as one of their core security policies. The objective of the formation of the grouping and its stated strategy, are not inscrutable to fathom for the observers. Although the Quad is not a security alliance per se, it is a strategic alliance with security issues as part of its broader objectives.
The annual Malabar naval exercise that commenced its activities in 1992 between the US and India, embraced Japan and Australia into the fold in 2007, providing a shot in the arms of the quad. This is perhaps the first time Japan joined a quasi-military alliance, heralding a fundamental shift in its foreign/defense policy. In 2014 under the strong leadership of Late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan also sought to amend the Japanese constitution removing Article 9 that made it mandatory to pursue a pacifist policy but succeeded in making the reinterpretation that it didn't explicitly forbid the SDF from providing material support to allies engaged in combats.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken Japan considerably, which saw it as a flagrant violation of international law and if not checked would set dangerous precedents around the globe in general and its neighborhood in particular. Japan has long-running disputes with China about the ownership of an uninhabited island but otherwise rich in undersea minerals, called Senkaku / Diaoyu (by the Chinese) 170 and 300km from Japan and China respectively. The countries came to near clashes a few times over the island's ownership, in the last few decades. Japan also has territorial disputes with Russia.
Japan's perceived threat, especially from China, is not misplaced.
Alarmed by the Russo-Ukrainian war, the present prime minister of Japan Mr Fumio Kishida took a strong position against Russia both in the UN and internationally and pledged his wholehearted support to Ukraine, financially and materially. He also traveled to a few countries in Europe to sew a close compact of nations against Russian aggression. He also traveled to Kyiv in March to meet President Zelenskyy and expressed his support to him.
Buoyed by the recent favorable opinion poll crossing the 50% mark since becoming prime minister on October 4, 2021, Kishida made a total overhaul of Japan's defense policy and announced the doubling of Japan's defense budget in the current fiscal year to tackle the dangerous security situation in the neighbourhood. Under new guidelines, it also allowed the SDF to launch a counterattack in enemy bases and command nodes with longer-range standoff missiles. Besides, Japan has also welcomed the opening of a NATO liaison office recently in Tokyo, raising speculation if it's a harbinger of more active cooperation with the military alliance.
The new shift in Japan's defense policy also stems from a greater realization that it's no longer prudent for Japan to entirely depend on the US for its security and it must create its capabilities to fend off any external threats.
In the same breath it must also be noted that, while Japan is beefing up its security and defense capabilities, it has continued to pursue a pragmatic policy of maintaining a balanced relationship with China. China remains the largest trading partner of Japan despite many impediments. The foreign minister of Japan Yoshimasha Hayashi visited China in the first week of April, which was the first visit by a Japanese foreign minister to the country in three years.
Bangladesh's relevance to Japan
Bangladesh is viewed by Japan as a strategic partner with considerable geopolitical and strategic importance. Japan has been the most trusted, tested, and all-weather friend of Bangladesh, throughout the history of the two countries' bilateral relations. The relationship between Bangladesh and Japan is characterized by mutual respect, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, close cooperation on international issues of mutual interest, and the promotion of global peace and stability.
All the heads of state and the government of Bangladesh have visited Japan, some, several times. From Japan also there have been several highest-level visits to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has consistently expressed its support to the Japanese aspirations of becoming a member of the UNSC.
Being the number one single country development partner of Bangladesh, Japan has played a critical role in helping the country achieve its current economic growth and has invested heavily in several mega projects. The two countries' relationship took a major leap forward during the visit of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to Bangladesh, in 2014, announcing a financial package of $6bn for infrastructure developments. He also outlined his vision of the Big-B initiative (the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt) turning the southern coastal part of Bangladesh including Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, and Matarbari into an energy, logistics, and industrial hub.
Bangladesh and Japan have inked a number of agreements, MOUs, and MOCs for strengthening cooperation including trade and investment which continue to register an upward trajectory. The present prime minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, has been following the policies framed by the late prime minister Shinzo Abe. Following the footsteps of Abe, Prime Minister Kishida, while visiting India last March made a major policy address, where he outlined a concept of creating an energy, logistics, and industrial hub in the southern Bangladesh town of Matarbari involving the landlocked North East states of India, known as Seven Sisters, and investment coming from Japan.
The plan envisages creating a supply chain and multi-modal connectivity whereby the Seven Sisters of India will have unfettered access to the deep sea port of Matarbari, facilitating its trade with the rest of India and beyond, which eventually will also bring Nepal and Bhutan into the fold. This ambitious plan is a part of the greater efforts of Japan to implement its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which will work as a bulwark against the expansion of Chinese influence in the region.
The Japanese government has already sanctioned an amount of $1.26bn to Bangladesh to build the necessary infrastructure. Between April 11-12, under the auspices of an Indian think tank Asian Confluence, a dialogue was held in Tripura, the capital city of the Indian state of Agartala. The meeting was attended by the Indian deputy minister for external affairs and the Japanese Ambassador in New Delhi.
The State Minister of foreign affairs of Bangladesh also joined the meeting on invitations. The objective of the meeting was to add flesh to the concept of Kishida for the creation of a growth triangle. This is when, Shahriar Alam, the SFM of Bangladesh, hinted at what the Bangladesh government's IPS is going to be like. The state minister said Bangladesh envisions a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific which was a core area of global politics and a key determinant of the long-term prosperity of the South Asian Region.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit to Japan
Upon invitation from her Japanese counterpart, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made an official visit to Japan from April 25-28 this year. At a time when the country was celebrating the Sakura (cherry blossom) season with all its charm and festivities. This was her sixth visit to Japan as prime minister of Bangladesh. The visit has been termed by the local media as significant. While the Japanese government extended warm hospitality and courtesies to the visiting dignitary, some Japanese media like Nikkei Asia also covered part of the visit.
She was also received in audience by Emperor Naruhito of Japan. It may be mentioned that on April 24, a day before Sheikh Hasina departed for Tokyo, Bangladesh declared its Indo-Pacific Outlook, to ease pressures coming on her from various powerful quarters. At the formal talk between the two leaders, they took stock of the existing state of the two countries' bilateral relations with satisfaction and identified several new areas for expanding and reinforcing the ties.
At the end of the talk, eight agreements and MOCs were signed between the two countries. A joint statement containing 30 paras was issued outlining the outcome of the visit, which, inter alia, elevated the status of the relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic partnership. On the issues of -the Pacific and Russia-Ukraine war, the language was couched in a manner that accommodated both the countries' respective views and sentiments, keeping in mind their national imperatives. The two countries which have been maintaining certain informal defense cooperation, intending to engage in more formal cooperation between them, also agreed to open defense wings in each others' embassies in each other's capitals, which no doubt marks a significant move.
The people of Japan have enormous goodwill towards Bangladesh, which has been adequately demonstrated over the decades through their generous economic support. There is also a huge potential to enhance trade and investment cooperation between the two countries. Presently, Bangladesh's export to Japan amounts to more than $2bn while nearly 400 Japanese companies are operating in Bangladesh.
However, in order to attract more Japanese investment and business into Bangladesh, our relevant government departments should be more responsive and sensitive about their grievances. On the other hand, our exporters should also make some efforts to learn about modalities of doing business with Japanese companies.
When it comes to crafting an Indo-Pacific policy for Bangladesh, it's no doubt an extremely challenging undertaking. Thus the country can ill afford to choose sides but should maintain a policy of "equi- proximity" (as against equidistance). To borrow a phrase from Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, we should perhaps endeavor to adhere to a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” in dealing with the Indo-Pacific time bomb.
Ashraf ud Doula a former ambassador to Japan.
