The Covid-19 pandemic, the greatest global crisis of the 21st century, has disrupted our lives and livelihoods in an unprecedented manner, forcing much of the industry and commerce into a standstill. The world economy is going through a great pause and is in the danger of falling into a recession worse than that of 2008.
However, this is not the first time the world has faced a crisis of such global scale. In the 20th century alone, the world went through two World Wars, the Spanish flu, and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Like all these global crises before, Covid-19 will also pass, but when it does, the world as we know it will be different.
By the time this crisis is over, our perception of what is normal and expected will have changed, especially in terms of how we work, play, and go about our daily lives. The question therefore is, what will this “new normal” look like?
Since most experts believe that while the worst will pass, a complete “zero occurrence” may be difficult to achieve in any country or region. Hence, practices such as social distancing and non-contact greetings (as opposed to handshakes and hugs) will continue to be the norm for the next few years. Wearing masks may even become a fashion statement! The biggest changes, however, will likely be in the workplace (both public and private sector) and the world of business.
A major trend in the workplace will be the increased inclination towards remote deployment. Work-from-home is gradually becoming the new norm rather than an exception as it has been during the pre Covid-19 period. According to an international English daily, around 80% of the white-collar workforce is now deployed under work-from-home regime.
Even my 70-year-old uncle, who is a lawyer in Kishoreganj district judge court, is currently conducting remote judicial hearings with the judges via Zoom despite his limited digital literacy. This has taught the corporate world and also the state machines that physical presence is not an absolute necessity, provided that appropriate technology and cyber-security regimes are in place.
This will lead businesses to rethink the need for expensive commercial office space in terms of both scale and location. Hot-desking policies may become more of a norm considering the reduced physical presence of employees in the workplace. Travel budgets will also come under the microscope, reserving that activity to only the most essential parts of the project.
There will also be conspicuous changes in the consumer behaviour. The fear of contagion during the Covid-19 period has made people more inclined towards online shopping even in an emerging economy like Bangladesh. While many people actually made their first online purchase during this period, the upward trend is likely to continue and as people become more aware of and accustomed to e-commerce platforms and their offerings.
General consumption patterns and spending habits will also change due to the residual trauma from decreased economic activity and loss of employment even after the pandemic is over. Philip Kotler, the father of modern marketing management, predicts that consumers will rethink what they consume, how much they consume, and will spend and save their money more carefully.
Covid-19 has also taught us that many aspects of physical banking may be more of a luxury than a need. Here, I can share a personal experience -- neither I, nor any of my family member, has visited any bank’s branch during the last three months except for very occasional visits to nearby ATM booths; in fact, almost all of my payments and receipts were through internet banking or mobile wallets (eg bKash, Rocket, Nagad etc).
Along with the accompanying challenges and elements of uncertainty, these changes will open up new opportunities. People’s increased consciousness towards personal hygiene and health care will fuel growth for hygiene product manufacturers and the overall health care and pharmaceuticals industry. There is a good probability of growth in the area of telemedicine since the Covid-19 lockdown has forced patients to avail and get accustomed to online medical consultations for minor ailments.
The increased popularity of online banking and cashless transaction has presented banks with the opportunity to reduce costs by downscaling branches and improving customer service through strengthening their technology infrastructure.
The increase in cashless transactions means growth opportunities for mobile wallet operators and fintech companies. The consumers’ invigorated interest in online retail will help the already growing e-commerce industry to flourish.
Same goes for the education space, where the closure of schools has forced many institutes to embrace e-learning. The home-entertainment industry including platforms like Netflix, Amazon prime etc have seen significant rise in demand, many movies are now directly released in these platforms instead of theatres and this trend may carry forward even after the lockdown is over.
This explosion of technology-enabled growth spells a significant increase in demand for business entities specializing in digital transformation, communication technologies, and the Internet of Things (IOT). However, this massive tech-enabled transformation and telecommunication will also present challenges in terms of data and transaction security, stability, bandwidth, and storage capacity.
Hence, companies that can provide data storage, technology support, secure platforms, cyber security, and even backup facilities will see a demand for their services grow rapidly. New opportunities will also emerge for telecom operators, internet service providers, and vendors of computer accessories.
This crisis, like the ones before, demands from the people of the world in general and businesses in particular to reflect, re-imagine, recalibrate, and reinvent. Those who do so will be well-equipped to rise up to the challenges and thrive in the “new normal” of the post-Covid-19 era.
Mamun Rashid is a partner at PwC Bangladesh. However, views expressed in this article are his own.
