Has IS really been defeated?

“Iraq is totally liberated from IS,” was the message from the country’s prime minister, after a three-year fight against the armed group. It’s been a long path to reach this end. The fight for Mosul alone took months. Almost one million people had to flee, and thousands left behind were killed. More than 8,000 homes were allegedly destroyed. And that was just one of several Iraqi cities once controlled by IS. So, is the war against IS really over? What does it mean for Iraq’s future? At any rate, it’s overly optimistic. I mean to say, all the Iraqi celebrations now are frankly insensitive. One has to always bear in mind that they actually began as an insurgent asymmetric warfare capability group. They were not always holding territory, and they will simply revert back to that.A reality check is in orderIraq has to be very vigilant and keep an eye out for any further disturbances. Also, if the social conditions that led to the rise of IS are not addressed, it will likely cause either the revitalisation of IS or something much worse. By examining and analysing what members of IS were doing previously and origins of groups like al-Qaeda and similar organisations, one can argue that they were running guerrilla campaigns against the US occupation at the time in the Anbar deserts. And later on, they fought the Iraqi security forces which had a devastating effect, costing thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment.

Iraq has to be very vigilant and keep an eye out for any further disturbances. Also, if the social conditions that led to the rise of IS are not addressed, it will likely cause either the revitalisation of IS or something much worse

On the other hand, they will probably try to conduct terrorist attacks inside cities and we’ve already seen this in Baghdad and in cities around the Baghdad belt. So, they will take a broad spectrum approach that is very low-cost, asymmetric, difficult to trace or track -- which is why an intelligence approach is very much suited for this kind of warfare. But in order for that intelligence operation to succeed, Iraq has to have people on board. Instead, Iraq now has politicians making grand announcements and giving hopeful messages. But the reality is, they are doing this because elections are coming up and Prime Minister Haider al Abadi wants to win another term. The actual reality on the ground is not much different from what we saw in 2014, when IS jumped onto the scene with explosive force. So, until that is addressed, we just have to bear in mind that the last person who declared that Iraq was liberated was George W Bush -- and that decalration led only to more turmoil and trauma in Iraq.Listen to the oppressedIf we look at last elections in 2014, much of the Anbari population could not vote simply because there was no security in the region. So, that’s millions of people left out of the political process, and that creates more marginalisation. What needs to be done is to have a transitional period where enough security can be put in place as well as restoration of services, so that people can think about survival. One of the demands of the people in some areas that IS has been driven out from is that they don’t want to see Shia militias dominate in those areas. Instead, they want to see provincial security forces taking charge. How realistic is it to expect the dismemberment of the Popular Mobilisation Forces which was such a key force in the fight against IS? It is entirely unrealistic. It appears that the PMF leaders are heavily backed by a regional power, which is obviously Iran, and they wield incredible influence not only within Iraq, but across the border into Syria and further into Lebanon. So, one can draw significant messages from looking at power dynamics stretch across the geopolitical space. When one tries to focus that solely within the Iraqi sphere, one begins to appreciate the level of difficulty that the Iraqi state and people have faced. For them, this is an inescapable reality.Sharif Hasan is a commentator on international politics and is currently working as a field researcher on behalf of Centre for Genocide Studies (CGS), University of Dhaka.