The recent shooting of a Russian combat aircraft by Turkey has prompted Russia to undertake retaliatory steps against them. Amid other steps, Russia has imposed economic sanctions against Turkey. More steps may follow shortly. The two friendly and engaged countries fell apart after an incident that lasted a few seconds.
Russia and Turkey were getting to a point of close co-operation, especially in the energy sector. Ankara and Moscow were rapidly developing their energy ties. In addition, both the countries appeared to be strengthening their diplomatic ties.
In 2010, the two states established a high level “co-operation council” which was to be a body to set up the strategy for developing Russian-Turkish relations and to co-ordinate the development of political, economic, trade, cultural, and humanitarian co-operation. Meetings between presidents or prime ministers of both the counties have been taking place every year since 2009.
In 2015, in a press conference after the meeting of the two presidents, Putin and Erdogan, Putin addressed Turkey as a strategic partner and praised Turkey’s leadership for its independent foreign policy. In the summit meeting in 2012, President Erdogan stated that Russia has always given assistance to Turkey in their difficult times with supply of natural gas. Putin replied saying Russia was always ready to provide Turkey a shoulder to lean on. Since December 2014, Russia and Turkey have been discussing a freetrade zone agreement, but both know it will require the approval of the EU.
During the discussions between the presidents of both the countries in 2012 and 2013, Turkey had indicated that they would end the bid for EU membership if the proposed Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), which includes Russia, China, and four other central Asian countries, would grant Turkey membership.
Erdogan also indicated that Turkey has more in common with SCO states than EU. He opined that SCO would become a very powerful organisation. Turkey and Russia have a number of important policy disagreements. Moscow’s providing of military, diplomats, and combat aircrafts to Syria are a bone of contention between the two countries. Other areas of concern are: Cyprus, Egypt, Armenia, and Central Asia, where Turkey vies with Russia for political and economic influence, mainly related to hydrocarbon resources.
However, many analysts opine that energy dependence on Russia and a robust economic relationship have overpowered other irritants. Both presidents had established a level of comfort in their relationship. As known, Erdogan admires Putin’s personality and authoritarian style of governance. He was heard commenting that Putin is unlike the Western leaders; Putin will remain silent on human rights and governance issues of Turkey.
Turkey was unhappy at the US and European allies for their condemnation of the Gezi Park incident, deteriorating human rights issues, restrictions on press, freedom of speech, political control of judiciary, etc, which they considered as an interference in their affairs. On November 2014, President Erdogan, in an outburst in the committee meeting of OIC, said that Westerners looked like our friends, but they want Muslims dead -- they like to see our children die. It was shocking for his NATO allies to hear such statements when all other nation allies have Christian majority populations.
Turkey has remained unresponsive to the US to allow its airbase of Incirlik in southern Turkey to bomb ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has been trying to link this request to the US for targeting the Assad regime more that ISIS. There were widening gaps between Turkey and the West. The pro-Russian shift of Turkey was a matter of concern for NATO.
On December 2014 President Putin and Erdogan declared cancellation of the South Stream natural gas supply project, which was designed to carry 63 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to Europe annually, across the Black Sea.
Russia was eager to undertake this project for Europe so that they become more dependent on them. In a surprise move, Putin announced that the gas earmarked to be supplied through the South Stream would instead go to Turkey. Russian oil and gas company Gazprom and Turkey’s BOTAS signed an MoU to implement this project. By this decision, South Stream became Turkish Stream. This major move was not expected by the West as Turkey and Russia were adversaries not too long ago.
The US has been uncomfortable over the developments related to Turkey and Russia. There were apprehensions that such a relationship would lead to distancing Turkey from NATO and the US, which was the precise aim of Russia. Turkey is an essential and important member of NATO.
During the visit of US State Department special envoy for energy affairs to Europe, Turkey was criticised for the Turkish Stream concept. Turkey was informed that by this project, they would become overdependent on Russia. It appeared that USA and Turkey were not on the same page on this issue. However, Turkey did not calculate that Turkish Stream would not be successful, unless Europe buys gas from Turkey.
Turkey’s growing overconfidence was causing problems on the solidarity with NATO and the West. During the last visit of Putin to Turkey in 2015, Russian diplomats asked Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz whether they would prefer Russia to the EU. The Turkish minister said Turkey did not give up one for the other: Their roadmap with both Russia and EU were ongoing. Two months later, on March 11, a Western diplomat in Ankara said: “Russia is drawing Turkey in its orbit. If it is not stopped now, it may be too late.”
The recent downing of Russian SU-24 aircraft by an F-16 aircraft of Turkey and the economic steps taken by Russia have made a u-turn in the relationship between the two countries. The rift has become too big to be bridged at least for some time. NATO and Washington in particular will see the development to be going in their favour. The efforts of Russia to woo Turkey may be on the verge of collapse. There will be some tactical and strategic readjustment by the coalition due to the deployment of Russian S-400 missile sites in Syria. However, Putin’s diplomacy as related to Turkey appears to be falling apart, which will be a matter of comfort for NATO, especially the US.
