The ongoing Gaza crisis is simply a war that no-one seems to know how to stop. The renewed rocket fire obviously won’t solve the crisis, rather it adds fuel to it. The problem is that there’s no easy way out from the escalated crisis situation. Israel might argue that it’s trying to avoid civilian casualties while Hamas is trying to cause them. But television reports of civilians dead in Gaza – especially children – will help shape perceptions regarding Israel around the world. From the outset, the Gaza crisis is analysed on account of a number of considerations.
Dissatisfaction that led to the war
First, it is a myth that the war between Hamas and Israel was triggered by the murder of several children, Israeli and Palestinian, in recent weeks. Second, it is also a myth that Palestinian fighters alone are to blame for the ongoing military offensive in Gaza.
We better read it from the point of view that the ongoing war is a logical outcome of the dissatisfaction over failed negotiations and anger over the crippling siege of the overcrowded Gaza strip, the continuous building of settlements, the uprooting of Palestinian trees, and confiscation of land and houses.
Israel fights simply because it can. As it steps up its war against Hamas with a ground invasion, it looks unstoppable. What happens next will depend on the readiness of Hamas, which has declined an Egypt-mediated truce that would have neither lifted the siege on Gaza nor given it political manoeuvrability to negotiate all Palestinian matters with the international community as an equal to Fatah.
Israel’s offensive on Gaza happens at a time when international diplomacy is distracted by the escalation of conflicts in other areas, eg Ukraine and Iraq. Besides, a great deal has changed since the last war in 2012 when Cairo had a government sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Hamas has since lost that support and, like the Muslim Brotherhood, counts among Arab states more foes than friends. Indeed, Israel knew it was an opportune time to strike.
New challenges
In 2012, when Israel operated a military attack on Gaza, the ousted President Mohamed Morsi could and did play a role in normalising the conflict. Indeed, Egypt sent not only humanitarian aid to the strip, but also sent the then Prime Minister Hesham Qandil, who visited for three hours. At that time, Cairo played a role as a mediator to broker a ceasefire with the diplomatic backing of regional and global powers. Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza were brought into the bargaining process.
Now, the state of affairs has become completely different and complex. There is no longer a coalition of regional and global interests which could prop up a serious drive to resolve the current violence. Furthermore, the current regime in Cairo, led by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is overtly antagonistic towards Hamas.
Being no longer welcome in the capital of the largest Arab state in the region, Hamas has been politically marginalised once again. Losing support in Cairo has meant that Hamas no longer has a mediator through whom to engage the EU and the US. And since the overthrow of the Morsi government in July 2013, Egypt has tightened the blockade on Gaza even further.
The Egyptian foreign minister’s remarks condemning Israel’s actions last week were finally transformed into an effort to initiate a ceasefire to end the conflict. Tony Blair’s encouragement of Sisi to take a more active role appears to have been the impetus behind the recent diplomatic overture. Blair has taken to shuttle diplomacy between Sisi and Netanyahu but the end result was a ceasefire that was not going to break the political impasse or Gaza’s siege.
Israel’s initial agreement was simply Netanyahu’s government going through the motions to gain greater international legitimacy. However, the exclusion of Hamas from ceasefire negotiations has served to illustrate the incapacity or unwillingness of the Sisi government to engage with all political players involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which is a must, if Cairo is to be perceived as an honest broker for peace.
Hamas’ other regional options are no longer viable. Iran’s financial support has dwindled markedly and military aid has completely petered out. Hezbollah is neither a friend nor exactly a foe. And all ties with Syria, which used to host its external leadership, are severed.
State terror in 21st century
The casualty is now almost 1,400 subsequent to Israel’s choice to boost its military operation on Hamas in Gaza. In addition to their air-strikes, the Israeli military is now engaging in ground assaults in their bid to annihilate Hamas. This abject display of violence needs to be stopped by diplomatic procrastination and exert pressure on both sides to engage in peace talks.
In reality, a treaty dialogue is imperative at the moment as both the UN report and the media have stated that more children have been killed in the conflict than militants. It cuts a sorry figure and one that Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to keep in mind as he continues the full–fledged attack, ignoring the cries of protest emanating from the rest of the world.
Compared to Israel’s sophisticated military power, Hamas’ rocket attacks are limited in nature. Israel’s augmented retribution to force a military solution is causing the blood of innocent Palestinians to be shed on an unprecedented scale, leading to a human rights disaster. But the face-off between the Israelis and the Palestinians in the Gaza strip is several decades old and one must ask how long both parties can continue in this vein before it completely strips away all human values.
Cost-benefit conundrum
The two belligerents are not “rational actors” as war theorists would assume in a calculation of costs and benefits. The expected gains for either party are not worth the current escalation in terms of loss of human life and destruction, yet both have proceeded.
Both Israel and Hamas are seeking political gains. Israel is hoping to avoid international isolation after the failed negotiations and US-Iran rapprochement. Hamas, on the other hand, is seeking international legitimacy to fight an unstoppable coloniser that kills indiscriminately and disproportionately.
Yet avoiding the savagery of Israel’s war machine is the best the Palestinians can do given the inauspicious Arab-Arab relations (not to mention Palestinian-Palestinian divisions) marked by a deep chasm over the role Islamists may play in politics. As for Israel, if the ground invasion is planned to grab territory in the Gaza Strip or remove Hamas’ rocket making and launching capacity, this might be a gamble the gains of which could be outweighed by the costs incurred.
The costs are too high for the Palestinian side to reject any kind of truce that offers Gazans, including traumatised children, relief from the Israeli offensive. For Netanyahu and his government there is also a significant risk that excessive use of force will significantly diminish its ability to justify it as a “legitimate response” to the international community, and the US, specifically.
Under these circumstances, Israel seems unstoppable, as its political leadership does not deem the risk of a Gaza invasion high enough to deter it. At the same time, the Palestinian side has no military parity to deter aggression when facing an overwhelming offensive by ground, sea and air.
Israel’s strategy of disproportionate use of military power against a defenceless civilian population, in total disregard for human loss, appears to be winning, since it is drawing only limited condemnation from the international community.
The response of the Obama administration to the Israeli offensive against Gaza was weak at best. “The tragic event makes clear that Israel must take every possible step to meet its standards for protecting civilians from being killed,” said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, who went on to condemn Hamas for firing rockets at Israel. Without any pressure from the US and the West in general, Israel will continue to bomb Gaza and take Palestinian lives with impunity.
Likewise, as long as Arabs fight each other brutally as in Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and do little or nothing to stand up for Gaza, Israel will in the foreseeable future keep attacking on a whim. Hapless Gazans will continue to suffer the biggest moral and political tragedy of our time in the Middle East.
Ceasefire: an obscure goal
First you have to decide what scale of operation you’re going to launch – a series of pinpoint commando raids on known weapons dumps? Or a large-scale reoccupation of the whole territory with all the dangers and responsibilities that would bring? Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas’ rocket making capabilities completely, making a ceasefire unlikely.
There would be more civilian casualties, making it a tough sell to international opinion. And there would be Israeli military casualties too - potentially making it a tough sell at home. Israel’s government has set the bar for itself very high by talking about putting a stop to the rocket fire for good and not simply settling for a truce of a few weeks or months. That might be very difficult to achieve. A number of the rockets in Gaza are workshop weapons. What if Israel staged a huge operation, left declaring it a success and then found home-made rockets raining down a week or a month later?
The Iron Dome air defence system fired to intercept a rocket over the city of Ashdod, Israel, on July 8. Many of Hamas’ rockets have been intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system, but millions of Israelis are within their range. So Israel has to push on with the campaign without a clear exit strategy in place.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s image in the rest of the world might be that of the uncompromising right-winger but his political instinct is probably to triangulate between the conflicting views of the hawks and doves around him. Short of that elusive permanent stop to the rocket fire, it’s hard to see what looks like a win from his point of view.
At the moment it seems there’s not much behind-the-scenes manoeuvering to secure a ceasefire. Egypt and Qatar are the most likely mediators. Egypt has contacts with both sides and brokering a solution would raise its diplomatic standing in the Middle East.
On the other hand, it may be relaxed about seeing Hamas’ military potential degraded for a while longer yet. So it’s not difficult to unravel the huge strategic changes and small acts of hatred that conspired to trigger this latest round of hostilities. But it’s very difficult to see what combination of circumstances will eventually bring them to an end.
It is pertinent to say that the United States, a long term strategic and true ally of Israel, must consider the rationale of the protests regarding Israel’s actions and shift its stance. It is now up to the international community to pressurise the Tel Aviv government with appropriate tools in order to facilitate a dialogue.
