On the surface, the forthcoming elections in Bangladesh and India will create fog of uncertainty in the two countries. Beneath the surface, a unique opportunity will make it possible for 250 million people from Bangladesh and West Bengal to transform their lives and bring in a new era of prosperity and peace. The question is whether the chief minister of West Bengal, along with the national leaders of Bangladesh and India, will seize this opportunity.
A new three-dimensional Blue Peace formula can help the chief minister of West Bengal and the leaders of Bangladesh and India create history. If it is implemented, the Teesta will flow for years despite pressures of population growth, economy and climate change. Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore’s words will find a new manifestation turning the Teesta into a heaven’s river, with its banks abundant with water in winter and the flood of joy in every village from Teesta Bazaar to Fulcherry.
It is important to realise that all of the three dimensions of the Blue Peace formula be treated as an integrated package to be implemented simultaneously. The efforts to treat them separately in the past have not succeeded and will not succeed in future.
First, it is essential to sign the Teesta treaty at the earliest on the basis of equitable sharing of water between Bangladesh and India.
Second, it is necessary to launch a Joint Investment Plan by the two countries for the integrated Teesta basin to augment water flow in winter months, change the cropping pattern in favour of drought-resistant crops, and diversify from an agrarian economy to other remunerative means of livelihood.
Third, it is essential to revamp the Bangladesh India Joint Rivers Commission and turn it into an instrument of integrated, collaborative, and sustainable management of all 54 trans-boundary rivers, under the chairmanship of a charismatic leader. It should do away with any need for a separate treaty for each of the shared rivers in future.
It is important to realise that equitable allocation of a river and collaborative management of trans-boundary water to derive benefits from it are two sides of the same coin. The experience of 148 countries and 263 shared river basins around the world proves that a mere allocation agreement does not bring prosperity and peace. On the other hand, an agreement on cooperation without clear understanding about equitable sharing or use of waters is impossible. Therefore, the three components of the Blue Peace formula are parts of the one.
It would be helpful to discuss each of the three components in some detail.
The Teesta Agreement finalised in 2011 provides for equitable distribution of water between Bangladesh and India. There can be contesting views on whether to provide for the environmental flow, which is essential for survival of the river, from Bangladesh’s share or India’s share or equally from both shares. However, the difference between any two extreme propositions would be a maximum of 10 billion cubic metres (BCM) per year.
This is equal to one per cent of total annual water flow from India and to Bangladesh. When Bangladesh and India have much goodwill towards each other, it would be unfair to the people of both countries to hold back an agreement for the sake of one per cent of annual water flow and deprive them of greater benefits described below.
The real problem in the Teesta Basin is a drop in the flow of water from December to March to a maximum of 3 or 4 BCM for the entire four-month period in winter. This can worsen the plight of farmers from northern districts of West Bengal and north-western districts of Bangladesh. Whether there is an agreement or not, flow depletion in the dry months is a stark reality.
It is possible to combat it by innovative means including the following: Shirpur Conservation Pattern successfully practised in Maharashtra to widen and deepen streams, check dams to store water during flood seasons for retrieval during dry months, dredging and excavating of Teesta and her tributaries, Sankosh river link, engineered wetlands and rainwater harvesting. Further, small-sized, solar-run water treatment plants can facilitate reuse of water for agriculture.
While these measures can augment water supply in winter months, drought-resistant paddy can be introduced to reduce the demand for water and increase the yield of crop per drop. In the next phase, eco-tourism and navigation can be encouraged to reduce dependence on agriculture and to create higher income livelihood possibilities for the poor. All these activities will need to be managed jointly by Bangladesh and India since the Teesta aquifers do not recognise national boundaries. They will also need financial resources which can be raised through a Joint Investment Plan.
The Joint Investment Plan will also require an initiative by the West Bengal Government with support from Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jatiya Party (Ershad) that have considerable presence in the north-western districts of Bangladesh. The governments of India and Bangladesh should subscribe to the Joint Investment Plan and also help mobilise the private sector and international investments.
The impasse over the Teesta should be also used to ensure that there is no such problem in future. The best approach would be to do away with the practice of negotiating river-specific agreements. It took 20 years to negotiate Ganga and 18 years to negotiate Teesta. At this rate, it will take 900 years to negotiate separate treaties for all of the shared rivers between Bangladesh and India.
Instead, it would be much more efficient to revamp the Joint Rivers Commission and hand over holistic management of all shared rivers to it. Currently the Joint Rivers Commission is neither joint nor a commission. There are two parallel committees which address river management from a competing nationalist and not a joint perspective.
The restructured body should be headed by a prominent Indian or Bangladeshi leader on an alternative basis and supported by a bi-national technical team to address all issues in a collaborative manner. It is also important for such a commission to have a clear arbitration clause with a well-defined mechanism to resolve differences and conflicts of interest.
The best time to reach an agreement on such a comprehensive Blue Peace formula is now. The chief minister of West Bengal is in an ideal position to take the initiative before the Indian elections are announced. Until then, both national parties, Congress and BJP, will need her potential alliance and respond positively to her call for a Blue Peace approach.
It is also the best time for Awami League, BNP and Jatiya Party (Ershad) to propose the Blue Peace approach jointly since all the three parties have a substantial base in the north-western districts of Bangladesh. The voters of all the three parties will benefit from a Joint Investment Plan which can only be possible if the Teesta Agreement is signed.
Once the Indian elections are over, it would be possible for any future government of India to sign a treaty with Bangladesh as per Article 73 of the Indian Constitution, Entry 10 and Entry 14 of the Union List and the Supreme Court decision in the “Union of India Versus Manmul Jain” case without consulting the West Bengal government or even seeking ratification from the parliament. The window of opportunity for national consensus on a transformational issue that can change the lives of 250 million people in West Bengal and Bangladesh will close.
The beauty of the Blue Peace formula is that there are no risks. All it requires is a mental framework that recognises the real nature of politics, as a game of additions. Imagine the Blue Peace signing ceremony by the Prime Ministers of Bangladesh and India, hosted by chief minister of West Bengal in Kolkata, with presidents of BNP, Jatiya Party (Ershad), BJP and other main Indian parties as the guests of honour.
Imagine the reaction from Beijing to Bretton Woods and from Brussels to Brasilia next morning. Much more important, imagine the smile on the faces of eco-tourism entrepreneurs in Jalpaiguri and Rangpur in 2030 whose parents used to be marginal farmers in 2013. Imagine the light that Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore wanted all of us to be filled with.
