There’s no shortage of interest in the elections of India which is the world's fastest growing economy and largest democracy. India is on three sides of Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal is on the other side. India and Bangladesh have had various bilateral alliances as well as disagreements since time immemorial. India is directly involved in many issues related to the interests of Bangladesh. So, India's election is a big factor for Bangladesh. The country's GDP is now about three and a half billion US dollars. Last year, India became the world's fifth-largest economy, overtaking the United Kingdom.
On June 4, we will get to know who’s going to be crowned the Delhi Mason. A hat-trick for the third consecutive majority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in this (2024) election or a challenge for the Congress-led India Alliance to stop Modi? Even though the voting phase is not over yet, various rumors are very visible in political circles. Before the results of the booth return polls are out, the poll strategists have entered the field with their waists tied. Who will take possession of the Masnad of Delhi? Who will be the resident of Lok Kalyan Marg for the next five years?
The total number of seats in the Lok Sabha of India (543+2) is 545, 543 seats are elected by popular vote and two seats are reserved for members nominated by the President. The victory and defeat of this year's Lower House of Parliament and Lok Sabha elections will be determined through the participation of 96 crore 90 million Indian citizens. India has about 969 million voters across its 28 states and eight Union Territories, which is more than the population of all European countries.
Poll analysts claim that as the 2019 Pulwama incident provided Modi with the logistics to win the election, there is no single issue that will easily defeat Modi this time. High unemployment and employment are bigger challenges now than the Ram Mandir issue or wooing voters for the sake of Hindutva. Added to this are regional state-seeking, corruption, bond scams, and commodity price hikes. Rather than a single issue, voters will give their desired verdict on a range of issues. Analysts, however, say most of the new jobs created are low-paying jobs that will be a big factor in this election.
On the other hand, after the complete defeat of the Congress in the last election, this time they have formed the India Alliance with all the anti-Modi parties. However, there is much doubt about who will be the Prime Ministerial candidate of India Alliance. The results may tell how prepared the opposition is to counter the Modi magic in the polls. Bihar's Nitish Kumar, the main craftsman of the India alliance, has put the alliance on the back foot. However, after the arrests of Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Saren and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on corruption charges, the All-India alliance got a boost. The Indian media is claiming that the BJP government has strengthened its strategy of arresting the opposition with all the anti-corruption investigation agencies ED, CBI, Income Tax Department etc. They have now become a major anti-Modi force, creating a more visible unity than before. This India alliance has created a force that can paint fingers in Modi's eyes.
In the last 17th Lok Sabha election, BJP's single vote share was 37.36% and after 293 seats it increased to 303. The BJP-led NDA alliance had a combined total vote share of 45% and a total of 353 seats. The Indian National Congress had 50 seats on its own and a combined total of 91 seats for the Congress and its allies. Apart from the two alliances, the seats of other political parties stand at 98. A total of 38 parties and many independent candidates participated in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Who is going to come to power? India's renowned pollsters Kushli Yogendra Yadav and Prashanta Kishor have given different interpretations to this question. Of India's 543 Lok Sabha seats, winning 272 seats is necessary for a majority. However, Yogendra opined that BJP will get much less than 272 seats this time. Even with partners (NDA), Narendra Modi's party may fail to form the government this time. On the other hand, poll strategist Prashant Kishor claims that the magic figure will not fall below 272 and the NDA and BJP alliance will not go above 370. Narendra Modi's party BJP is hoping to form the government again with more than 400 seats this time. However, in the last phase of the election, the Indian election experts say that such hope of the BJP is hopeless. They have toured the states and opined that the low voter turnout in the elections will derail the ruling party from its target.
The BJP alone controls 12 of India's 28 states, while the Congress controls only three. The opposition claims that even though Modi was in the air at the beginning of the election, it has started to change before the results are out. Congress has fielded candidates in 303 seats this time, the lowest in the history of the Congress to leave the alliance parties. Many have raised whether it is giving up the road to bring the BJP to power or helpless surrender.
Election surveys say the BJP will lose seats from East India to South India at a significant rate this time. The region includes important states like Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. On the other hand, BJP's main sources of strength are North India and West India. They indicate that the BJP's vote is increasing in Assam, Odisha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. The BJP may increase its seats in Andhra Pradesh due to its alliance with Chandrababu Naidu. On the other hand, the reason for the decrease in votes in Bihar is due to Nitish's party politics, RND in Uttar Pradesh, and Shiv Sena's split into two parts in Maharashtra, Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray are the main reasons. Many people have thought the situation is unfavorable for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. BJP will lose several seats in Uttar Pradesh. For so long, good results in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat polls have brought the BJP to the peak of success. This time also the fate of the BJP depends on Uttar Pradesh.
If the India alliance with the BJP is to have good results, the BJP will have to have a single fight with the Congress. Earlier it was seen that Congress won all the seats not by fighting with the BJP but with the ABJP party. So, Congress should increase the single strike rate. Analysts believe that Narendra Modi's target of 400 seats is a political strategy to keep the opposition under pressure in the polls. The BJP is trying to build up this hype - with various exit poll results and controlled media. It is also true that Narendra Modi now has no wind like before and no bad name is strong. So, it can be said that Modi's coalition NDA will not drop from 350 to 250 overnight. It is okay that their seats will decrease but it cannot be expected that they will not be able to form the government. Even if the seats are reduced in some states, the Modi government will make up for it with seats in the states of South India. BJP tries to woo voters with guarantees like Modi's Ujjwala Yojana, Jan Dhan Yojana, and Awas Yojana.
In northern India, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the BJP has maintained its social presence in a multi-caste society despite varying degrees of resentment against the Modi government among castes and communities. Some larger caste groups, such as the Rajputs, have expressed anger against the BJP in some regions. Other smaller caste groups, which have supported the BJP in the last few elections, have also shown their displeasure. These small ethnic groups are important. The future of the election now depends heavily on Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state, which has the largest number of seats at 80.
Chanakya Amit Shah was the chief commander of Narendra Modi's vote last time. In this election, Modi's unit includes Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, West Bengal BJP leader Subvendu Adhikari and many others. There are also field-level organizations like RSS.
BJP is also financially strong. It has been alleged that they used huge amounts of money in this election through electoral bonds. As an all-India party, the organizational strength of the BJP is quite consolidated. It can be said that BJP is now in peak form in India. No other political party alone has the power to stop the BJP in all aspects of finance-organization-leadership-politics. BJP has also weakened the anti-BJP alliance attack in many ways. It is not easy to prevent the victory of the BJP across India in this election considering regional interests, money, position, etc. Still, Rahul Gandhi, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, DMK chief MK Stalin, CPM's Sitaram Yechury and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee are playing a role in the anti-BJP fight.
After 1984, no other party could single-handedly win 370 seats. The Congress party did the impossible in that year's elections. In the elections held after the assassination of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the Congress party alone won 414 seats.
If Narendra Modi wins this election and remains Prime Minister for another five years, he will be India's third longest-serving Prime Minister. India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru ruled the country for about 16 years and 9 months. His daughter Indira Gandhi ruled the country for 15 years and 11 months.
We all hope that no matter who the Prime Minister is in India's elections, one country will work shoulder-to-shoulder with another to bring peace and order and eradicate famine in South Asia. Bangladesh wants the new Prime Minister of India to be interested in solving various bilateral problems of Bangladesh.
Prashanta Kumar Shill is a journalism scholar and international political analyst. Email: [email protected]
