Some call him a Teflon politician, some call him a politician with nine lives, but Donald Trump appears to survive any political catastrophe that affects him.
He's survived dozens of civil cases as a businessman before he had even entered the political arena by manipulation. The accusations of sexual misconduct or even attempted rape made against him when he began his campaign for presidency melted before they even materialized as solid cases against him.
The two impeachments that he's faced, one in the middle of his presidency and the other when his Presidency was ending. Nothing stuck to him, and today he seems to be hale and hearty and merrily carrying on with his campaign for a second attempt at Presidency.
Merrily, but haltingly, until his latest arraignment before a Federal Court in Miami on 37 counts of felony for stowing secret and classified government documents at his Miami club cum residence (which he referred to as his White House). These classified documents, some of which contain information regarding defense and weapons capabilities of both US and other foreign countries, US nuclear programs, potential vulnerabilities of US and its allies, and plans for possible retaliation in case of attack (these charges are taken from officially published records).
These classified documents were recovered from Trump's Mar-a-Lago social club stored in dozens of boxes marked classified or secret after an FBI search of his club cum residence after the US Archives, official repository of all Presidential records, failed to obtain from Donald Trump after he had left the Presidency.
All presidents of the United States are not only expected but legally required to turn in all documents (except personal letters/mails) to the Archives after they leave the White House for official safe keeping. These may be trivial, but these are all government documents, secret or not. But Donald Trump, who has an unenviable record of thumbing his nose at law or legal processes kept hundreds of documents, information classified as secret with himself, and asked his minions to carry these to his new post presidential home in Miami.
He defied requests from the US Archives to return the documents and sent only a tiny portion of these to the official depository. When the Archives found out that Trump was holding on to a mammoth number of documents still in his custody, they turned to the Department of Justice to force Trump to turn in the documents. Hence the FBI which had to recover the documents after a raid of his Miami club cum residence.
Hence, the 37 counts of felony charges that Trump faces that include violation of US Espionage Act for willful and illegal retention of US defense information. If convicted, Donald Trump may face years of Jail sentence.
But will Donald Trump, the Humpty Dumpty of US politics, ever face jail time? Will not his supporters, man and horses, come to his rescue and put a broken Trump together again as it has happened in the past? Will not his Republican Party loyalists salvage him once again?
Already, most key Republicans in the Senate, including the minority leader Mitch McConnell, have either called the latest arraignment of Trump as a weaponization of federal law against Trump and have either commented criticizing the action or kept silent on it. No one has come out openly criticizing Trump for his reckless disregard of federal laws on illegal storage of secret government records.
One wonders why, despite this very clear violation of laws forbidding ex-presidents to keep presidential documents in private custody (laws enacted since Richard Nixon's infamous Watergate scandal and resignation from office to forestall impeachment), the Republicans are calling the arraignment as “politically motivated”?
The answers are not far to seek. These are hidden behind the political constituents of the Republican Party and the demographic of the core supporters of Donald Trump from the party.
The Republican Party, although it ranks behind the Democratic Party in registered voters (about 30 % vs 34%), is more monolithic than the latter. Among registered Republican voters nearly 80% are white compared with 60% in the Democratic Party. The core supporters of Donald Trump are estimated to constitute anything between 40% and 45% of registered republicans, far higher than any other Republican leader.
None of the top Republican leaders who aim to retain their congressional seats want to risk their position by not supporting Trump even if he were to commit a crime. Because, to the core supporters of Trump, their anointed man can commit no crime. So much so that a good majority of Trump supporters do not consider the insurrection of January 6, 2021 at US Capitol where rioting mob ransacked the building a criminal act, but a legitimate protest against election.
The core supporters dismiss all litigation, civil or criminal, against Trump are politically motivated. Their leader is above law because he represents law itself. One wonders where this defiance from Trump and his supporters comes from.
The answer lies in the character and belief of Trump supporters.
During his 2016 presidential campaign Donald Trump unchained in a figurative way a section of Republicans, who were white, semi-urban, not college educated, and felt marginalized in a country that they felt were turning them into a minority through immigration, loss of work from flight of jobs to other countries, and a feeling of neglect from their party leader. Donald Trump appeared to them as a messiah because he did not come from ranks of professional politicians, promised them a return to the Neverland that would be free from immigrants who take jobs away, and a promise of majority white rule as it was several decades ago. The working-class white responded to his call overwhelmingly and voted him to office.
Trump's fall came because the independents who comprise about a third of voters in the US, spurned him the second time and voted for his opponent Joe Biden. This did not sit well either with Donald Trump or his core supporters. Both Trump and his core supporters refused to accept the results leading to the January 6 insurrection. Even today Trump and many of his core supporters do not want to believe that Trump was truly beaten in the 2020 elections. Hence their belief that the current establishment is out to politically destroy Trump with trumped up cases.
It is early to comment on how the federal case against Donald Trump will go in the coming months. On the face of it, the charges are serious enough to lead Trump to conviction and Jail. It is also fairly certain that two other cases against Trump will lead to his further time in courts, but it is also certain that Trump will act according to his nature and continue to campaign despite the charges.
It is also certain that his supporters will continue to cling to his coat tail and pound the pavement declaring his innocence. But it is not certain that this time around Trump's men and horses will succeed in putting the broken Humpty Dumpty together again. Let us hope that this time law gets the upper hand.
Ziauddin Choudhury has worked in the higher civil service of Bangladesh early in his career, and later for the World Bank in the US.
