The Rohingya, the most persecuted minority in the world, are the residents of Myanmar's Rakhine State. Although, Myanmar government considers the Rohingya as British colonial and postcolonial migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh, A Comparative Vocabulary of Some of the Languages Spoken in the Burma Empire by Francis Buchanan (1799), which was found and republished by Michael Charney in the "SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research" in 2003, says, among the native groups of Arakan, there are the "Mohammedans, who have long settled in Arakan, and who call themselves Rooinga, or natives of Arakan." The Classical Journal of 1811 identified "Rooinga" as one of the languages spoken in the "Burmah Empire." In 1815, Johann Severin Vater listed "Ruinga" as an ethnic group with a distinct language in a compendium of languages published in German.
Blatantly ignoring this history, Myanmar still regards the Rohingya as illegal immigrants and non-citizens. Persecution of the Rohingya thus crossed all limits. Violent, large-scale crackdowns targeted toward the Rohingya -- like Operation King Dragon in 1978, and Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation in 1991 -- forced hundreds of thousands to flee Burma into Bangladesh.
The most current and possibly most virulent, wave of Rohingya persecution began in August 2017 when the military of Myanmar launched merciless onslaught against the Rohingya communities. The head of the UN agency for human rights later referred to the military's conduct as "acts of horrific barbarity," potential "acts of genocide," and "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing." The persecution forced nearly a million Rohingya to flee to their neighbouring country, Bangladesh, while thousands fled to India, Thailand, Malaysia, and other parts of South and Southeast Asia.
In 2018, The UN Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar reported atrocities that “undoubtedly amount to the gravest crimes under international law” and that could constitute a genocide. The report highlighted the extreme scale and brutality of the violence.
Using statistical extrapolations which were based on surveys, conducted with a total of 3,321 Rohingya refugee households in Cox's Bazar, a study in January 2018 estimated that the military and the local Rakhine population killed at least 25,000 Rohingya people and perpetrated gang rapes and other forms of sexual violence against 18,000 Rohingya women and girls. They estimated that 116,000 Rohingya were beaten, and 36,000 were thrown into fires.
Repatriation: the only sustainable solution
Pressure on the Myanmar government to find a long-term solution has increased since these documents detailing violence and crimes against humanity were made public. Since the Rohingya are citizens of Myanmar, their dignified return to their country with guarantees of protection from the Myanmar government can be the only long-term solution to this crisis.
On November 23, 2017, Bangladesh and Myanmar signed a repatriation agreement, marking the start of the first repatriation attempt. There was, however, no consensus on a specific repatriation procedure or a date for its conclusion. In June 2018, the United Nations Development Program and the UNHCR signed a tripartite agreement with the Myanmar government to create favourable conditions for the Rohingyas to return. Repatriation attempts in November 2018 and August 2019 also failed because of the mistrust the Rohingya had in the Myanmar government.
In January 2021, Bangladesh proposed a village-based repatriation process to make the Rohingya feel safe about their return. After a year, in January 2022, both countries resumed the talks. Myanmar said it would like to start the process by repatriating 42,000 refugees from the list of 8,30,000 Rohingyas sheltered in Bangladesh. But alas, this failed also.
Why Myanmar should take back the Rohingya quickly?
The Burmese military is accused of committing ethnic cleansing and genocide by various United Nations agencies, International Criminal Court officials, human rights groups, journalists, and governments.
The UN Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) (August 9, 2022) found evidence of crimes against humanity committed by Myanmar military. Commission for International Justice and Accountability, CIJA have revealed (August 7, 2022) their collected documents proving systematic purge of Rohingya, including wide-scale human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, executions, gang rapes, arson of Rohingya villages, businesses, and schools and infanticides. Cases are ongoing in ICJ, ICC, German, and Argentine international court against the Myanmar army.
The Rohingya have never demanded an independent Rakhine State, all they asked for is citizenship and the right to live in their motherland like other ethnic groups. Before the 2017 cleansing, Rakhine had a population where 63.3% people were Buddhist, 35.1% were Muslim. Clearly, there were only two vital groups, Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims. As most Rohingya are confined in camps now, in the Rohingya-free Rakhine province, the Rakhine people now enjoy a majority of around 80%. This situation has heightened the Rakhine nation's dream of an independent state -- which has long been supported by the Arakan Army.
If the Rohingya had citizenship, the ratio of Rakhine to Rohingya in Rakhine province today would be around 60:40. The Rakhines, being only half the population, could not claim for an independent state based on their ethnic identity. The Myanmar army clearly made a strategic mistake by expelling the Rohingya from Rakhine. So, for their own interest, unavoidable facts and international pressure, Myanmar junta has no option but to take back the Rohingya quickly with assured security and rights.
Why the Rohingya should go back as early as possible?
It is true that, the crisis in Myanmar has not ended. War between the military and resistance forces continues in different parts of the country. But we need to remember that, the people of Myanmar have been under military rule for decades. From 1962 to 2011, the military, led by General Ne Win, took control of Burma through a coup and the government had been under direct or indirect control by the military since then.
Six years since the latest Rohingya exodus, not even a single Rohingya was allowed back. As time passes by, the hope will also fade gradually; the topic will lose its importance. Many other issues in the international arena will get the focus of the international community, as we have experienced with Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine.
The Rohingya should leave no stone unturned to go back to their motherland. Staying in another country as refugees, any protest by them would lack the necessary impact.
The Myanmar government has organized two rehabilitation centres for Rohingya in Rakhine. The security situation for Muslims is better than it has ever been. Facilities for livelihood, health, and education have improved. The number of Muslim-specific educational establishments has expanded.
After a nine-year break, 200 Muslim students were enrolled to Sittwe University last year. This year, a significant number of Muslim students were also accepted. Muslims have access to medical care as well. Junta government is offering "National Verification Card (NVC)" for the returnees. Junta's willingness to solve the issue seems more reliable now.
The latest pilot repatriation plan
Through the mediation of China, Bangladesh and Myanmar agreed to a pilot Rohingya repatriation project recently. In early March 2023, Myanmar arranged a trip to Rakhine for the ambassadors or consul generals of 11 countries, including Bangladesh, India, China, and eight ASEAN nations, to observe the situation there. The envoys underlined that Rakhine's security situation is now stable. The time has come to start the repatriation process.
Right after the ambassadors' trip, a delegation from Myanmar's military junta visited Bangladesh to evaluate potential repatriation applicants. Myanmar validated a list of over 1,000 Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh who will return soon as part of this trial program. On May 5, a 20-member Rohingya team from Bangladesh visited Rakhine to observe the situation there, as part of a confidence building measure and to encourage other Rohingya for a voluntary repatriation.
Though the Rohingya team, after the visit, concluded that they are not returning without citizenship and are not accepting NVC, this could be the first step toward reclaiming their rights.
Global and regional actors
It is the foremost humanitarian duty for the international community and right-wing organizations, to assist the Rohingya. Though the decades-long hostility between Rohingya minorities and the Myanmar government is unlikely to be erased overnight, this is where the international community can play a crucial part. ASEAN, the United Nations, global and regional entities can all play important roles in creating a trustworthy environment between them.
The message from the international community should be clear. If we can act accordingly, the ice of mistrust will gently, but steadily, thaw. The returnee Rohingya are not going to be left alone, they will be observed and their security situation will be monitored -- such a message should be provided by the global actors.
This pilot project should be taken positively. Following this pilot project, if Myanmar can begin and complete the mass repatriation of Rohingya while maintaining security, dignity, and honour, this will undoubtedly aid the Myanmar junta in gaining some respect in the international arena.
The international community, on the other hand, should play a critical role in full-scale repatriation by supervising the overall process, maintaining pressure on Junta and monitoring post-repatriation treatment of this pilot plan.
This is a test for the world community, rights groups, global actors, and Myanmar, that must be passed with flying colours.
Nur-Mohammad Sheikh is a security affairs analyst.
