The National Unity Government (NUG) -- the government of Myanmar in exile -- completed its historic two-year voyage on April 16, 2023. Among the three coups that have dominated Myanmar's history in 1962, 1988, and 2021, two of them in 1988 and 2021 resulted in exiled governments.
Exiled governments are a regular political occurrence in the tumultuous globe of today. However, having two in one generation goes well beyond conventions in the modern era. There are lessons to be learned and idealistic hopes to be realized that can be used to illuminate the future and direct both domestic and foreign affairs.
A short history
After the military overthrew the government in 1988, it promised to arrange elections that would give rise to a multiparty "discipline-flourishing democracy." It did hold such elections in May 1990, which the opposition National League for Democracy swept and the military blatantly ignored.
On December 18, 1990, in territory that was not yet under military control, several members of the recently elected, but unseated, legislature established the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB) and then shifted to Thailand to avoid being apprehended by the military.
It pushed for diplomatic recognition -- which was never granted by the US -- and focused attention on the political situation of the civilian population and inspired strong international support. Sein Win, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's first cousin, was chosen as the NCGUB's prime minister in exile at a summit held in Bommersvik, Sweden, in May 1995. But as the military began the slow, incomplete, but encouraging, pattern of reform, and as the US responded to such quiet signals from the military, relations began to improve. On September 14, 2012, the NCGUB was dissolved in the aftermath of these changes.
The NUG was established on April 16, 2021, and is made up of members of the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw -- the parliament that was elected in November 2020, but was overthrown by a military coup in Myanmar before it could take office on February 1, 2021 -- as well as ethnic minority group representatives and other anti-coup actors.
On September 7, 2021, the NUG formally declared war on the military of Myanmar. The response of the populace to the coup in 2021 was unparalleled. Tolerance of military crimes appear to have come to an end in light of the ethnic minorities' continued fight for autonomy as well as youth exposure to liberalization during the past ten years.
Military aggression against the populace has been unprecedented, and anti-military insurrection is visible even in the Bamar regions that have never before been prone to unrest.
NUG's two-year journey
Since its founding, NUG has maintained a high level of diplomatic activity, leading to the opening of representative offices in the USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Norway, the Czech Republic, France, and the United Kingdom.
In the instance of recognition, Malaysia became the first ASEAN member to engage with the NUG openly, while the Indonesian government opted to formally recognize the NUG on October 7, 2022. The European Parliament adopted a resolution in October 2021 that recognized the CRPH and the NUG as the only legitimate representatives of Myanmar. On October 5, 2021, the French Senate passed a resolution to formally recognize the NUG. On October 7, 2021, the Australian Greens, one of Australia's major political parties, recognized the NUG as the official government of Myanmar.
As the Military Council is increasingly marginalized on the international scene, we are seeing an escalation in international sanctions against it. Recently, the Military Council's abuses of human rights were roundly denounced and called for to be remedied by the UN Human Rights Council. The UN Security Council passed a resolution on the state of affairs in Myanmar, calling for an immediate halt to the junta's violence and the immediate release of all political prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other prominent figures. The United Nations Security Council had never previously passed a resolution mentioning Myanmar. These reflect the diplomatic achievements of the NUG.
Acting NUG president, Duwa Lashi La, reported that over the past two years the NUG has established over 300 People's Defense Force (PDF) battalions across the nation, in addition to 250 out of 330 township public defense groups. Significant progresses have also been seen through NUG's efforts to establish liaisons with various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Karen National Union (KNU), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), the Chin National Front (CNF), and the All-Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), have publicly joined hands with pro-democracy forces, combining to form around 45,000 troops.
Three Brotherhood Alliance consisting of the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) have been providing military training, weapons to resistance forces, and sometimes (The AA) taking part in active fights against the military Junta. Due to NUG's active role, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP)/Shan State Army-North, and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) are keeping their position neutral, and not siding with the Junta.
The military believed that they could seize control of the entire country in a couple of months when they conducted the coup. They failed due to the NUG, and this is considered one of the biggest successes of the NUG.
Contrary to prior uncontested regimes, PDFs and EAOs have posed serious concerns to the military regime this time around. Independent analysts of the situation concluded that only 17% of Myanmar can be properly governed by the Military Council. Revolutionary troops have taken over more than half of the nation.
The future of NUG
The overall performance of the NUG in the past two years has been largely successful due to the support of the people. The main challenges faced are acquiring weapons and establishing a central command system to fight unitedly and strategically in order to achieve greater success in the armed resistance movement. A clear and precise plan on ousting the current military regime is somehow very important.
We must not forget that, unlike the rush by Western governments to support and fund Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky in the wake of the Russian invasion, the Myanmar opposition is receiving little or nothing at all. Un-willingness to support the NUG in terms of weapons and funding means the Myanmar crisis could drag on for years, even decades, despite the “feel-good” statements of the NUG saying 2023 should be the last year for the Spring Revolution to roll out before victory.
The West needs to step up to the plate and offer real support to the NUG to help expedite the Myanmar people's wish to be free from the jackboots of their oppressor. Given that the fate of its people now mainly rests with the NUG, foreign observers should reconsider their positions and extend diplomatic recognition to the NUG.
Any call for the state to be broken up, which has long been supported by some ethnic groups, should be rejected since doing so would probably result in a regional set of anxieties that are "Balkanized," only making the various problems the region is facing worse. Only a federal democratic system with autonomy in some regions or states can be the sustainable solution to the crisis in Myanmar.
Nur-Mohammad Sheikh is a security affairs analyst.
