Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ: SAVA) stock is down 13%. SAVA stock dropped because there's a revival of the worry that everyone's had all along. Does the Alzheimer's drug actually work? Wholly and truly, honest, really work? And the thing is that the jury is still out on that. Yes, there are tests ongoing, results indicate that there might be something there. But it always seems to be around the limit of statistical relevance and not, in fact, all that much of an effect anyway.
OK, that might be being a bit too gloomy about it but we did look at this elsewhere some 3 years back. On Cassava Sciences: “One of the grand and awful diseases that afflicts tens of millions is Alzheimer's. A treatment, let alone a cure, for this will make many billions of dollars. Thus people keep trying even those it's extremely expensive to do so and also no one's really having a great deal of luck at present. It's not in fact entirely and wholly known what's causing it even as there are good theories and reasonable observations of physical changes that take place.
This is what Cassava's doing. They've done the lab work and got to running phase 2 trials. The results of which - see that slump in the price in May? - were that it doesn't work, doesn't do anything useful. Oh dear, how sad, everyone loses their money.
Yes, that's perhaps too flippant but that is how this works. A drug that entirely fails is dead and gone.
Then Cassava had another look, using different analysts, and there is something there. Thus the stock price jump you can see in late September.”
Having to go look again for the effect is not one of those good signs. Things that really and wholly work leap out of the test results that is.
Cassava Sciences stock price from NASDAQ
OK, so now we're a couple of years later, Cassava has been able to continue their work. And we're all still real excited about the idea of a drug that really works on Alzheimer's. And yet the latest test results for SAVA: “Simufilam treatment for 6 months slowed cognitive decline by 38% compared to placebo in mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease (MMSE 16-26). The placebo arm declined 1.5 points on ADAS-Cog, and this arm declined at all measured timepoints. The simufilam arm declined 0.9 points on ADAS-Cog, a 38% difference in favor of drug at month 6 (95% CI, – 2.1 to 1.0; not significant for sample sizes). See Table 1 and Chart 1.” That's one of those things that is interesting, not something that presages a blockbuster. Further, the statistical significance here is not great. It doesn;t help that the CEO seems to be blaming short sellers: ““When I first read the allegations, I felt dazed and confused […] But I think what we're currently seeing is no ordinary short seller betting our data will disappoint," Barbier said. "To me, the short attack against Cassava Sciences feels unprecedented in its boldness, its scope, its immediacy and its intensity. It feels highly organized and well-funded. It feels like whoever is behind this effort wants to make a lot of money quickly, at the expense of our science.”” The problem with this sa an argument is that short sellers have no influence whatsoever on the science. Further, as Cassava is pretty well funded at present the stock price doesn't matter to the company either. So, many are writing that off as the usual blather.
The real problem here at Cassava Sciences is that a drug that truly works against Alzheimer's would be a megablockbuster in sales. Which is why all the excitement of course. But Cassava is having a very hard time proving that simulfilam has anything other than marginal effects.
