For those of us lucky enough to have witnessed the birth of Bangladesh, it all seems to be only yesterday when prognosticators had opined an early demise of the country brought down by the twin forces of population and hunger.
We were given the unenviable label of a would-be international basket case, a perpetual dependent on the charity of rich nations, and an economically unviable country.
Bangladesh was written off by most countries as a dot in the world map that was waiting to be erased. Because in 1972, Bangladesh was listed as the second poorest country in the world.
So dire was the prognosis that even within the country, forces emerged to change the legacy of our struggle for independence, including the leadership that brought about our independence.
Not only our economy was in the doldrums, but our separate and sovereign existence was at stake within three years of our independence. No one, including our own people, had this confidence that time that we would survive that eventful decade of 1970.
And yet we did. Not only that decade, but decades thereafter.
A filler of baskets
And here we are five decades later surviving not as a basket case, but a filler of baskets of other countries with our export of goods, services, and trades that are not only benefiting others but also us.
In five decades, we rose from the lowest rung of the income ladder to lower middle-income status, poverty declined from nearly 44% to 14%, while our gross domestic product rose from $6.3 billion to over $330 billion. Economically we became a success story, rebounding to a parable for development, for hard work and perseverance, and a model for female education and employment.
But along with economic miracles, what has put Bangladesh at the front-centre in the world map is the human development index. From rise in life expectancy, to literacy, to school enrollment -- particularly female -- the success has been beyond impressive. Human development index (HDI) increased by 60% in four decades. In female school enrollment, female employment, and gender equality Bangladesh ranks top among South Asian countries.
So, if this is our base in 2022, where do we see us in another two decades?
Will Bangladesh sustain this pace or accelerate from this position in 2041 to put us in the list of middle-income countries of the world?
What do we have to do? What mistakes do we need to avoid?
Assessing targets
First of all, let us focus on our targets for the next decade; economic, social, and political.
Our economic target is to grow and expand our manufacturing capability, agricultural production, and exports. Our social target is to raise everyone above the poverty line, remove illiteracy, provide accessible healthcare to all, and provide employment to our youth.
Our political target is to sustain and maintain our democracy and create and maintain institutions that help us to do so. This includes creating and supporting a governance infrastructure that ensures rule of law, and good governance.
There is an old saying that if wishes were horses, then beggars would ride. I would like to turn this phrase around and say that when wishes are horses, then everyone can ride.
We are more than 50 years away from those dark days of our traumatic birth as a nation. We are no longer dogged by the fear and gloom of an impending demise of a young nation. We are firmly trenched in an economy of growth and far-reaching ambitions that were pipe dreams five decades ago.
We have already achieved many of the unachievable dream projects that we could only wish for. Our transport infrastructure has in the inventory two major bridges that have halved journey time from north to south and east to west, a tunnel under river, elevated expressways, and metro rails that will reduce hassle of travel for the weary travelers in the city.
We have more power generation capacity than we can use (at least for now), from the blackout nights of our independence. We are now in that phase of our country’s existence when projects like these were really like horses of a beggar’s dream. They are no longer so.
But how do we ensure that our wishes can provide us the horses that we only once dreamed of?
This is not guaranteed. This is not automatic. We can achieve our economic, social, and political goals only with a pragmatic plan that focuses on people, and their welfare.
First on economy
A linear projection of our GDP growth assuming the last five years’ average will lead us to a middle to high income country by 2041. But this assumption is based on the uninterrupted current level of exports, income from remittances from abroad, and a growth in manufacturing and agriculture above current level.
But to achieve or sustain that, we cannot depend simply on the kind of manufacturing (RMG mainly), and continued export of unskilled manpower abroad. The world economy, particularly countries who are trading partners and employers of our labour, will not remain the same.
The demands will change, from simply importing clothing and accessories to other more sophisticated items and services. Our continued reliance on traditional manufacture of finished clothing and accessories may not meet this change in demand.
Similarly, our unskilled labour that only provides manual services will have to change also. Our strategy will need to adapt to this change in demand. Our manufacturing will need to change from RMG to more and more products and services that fit demands and needs of a new generation that will adopt changes in technology geared to these demands.
That means we will need to invest in innovative technology, agri-business, information, and communication technology, to name a few. Instead of garments we should move to computing equipment, software engineering, and related services to respond to changes in demand and provision of the above services.
On social and human resources
Our HDI at current level of growth is impressive, but not adequate to lift us to the level of other middle-income countries. Our literacy is improving, as is our school enrollment. We are expanding our higher education, particularly at tertiary level at record speed.
But we still do not know how to engage this educated youth gainfully. According to World Bank findings, more than a third of college graduates remain unemployed after graduation. This is mainly because the students of most of the colleges/universities graduate in areas that have little employment opportunities.
This will need to change in the coming years with new curricula geared to technology and demands from industry and services worldwide.
What needs our biggest focus in the next two decades beginning now, however, is our political firmament.
We cannot advance to the next higher level, including our entry into the middle-income level, without a firm and strategic leadership in our country and politics which is to be grounded in people’s trust and their welfare.
Everything emanates from good statesmanship and political wisdom that looks beyond power and control. This includes establishing and maintaining good governance, rule of law, and institutions that people have faith in.
Our road map toward further economic and social development depends on good institutions, good governance, and rule of law. We cannot attract foreign investments in our future development if the investors do not have faith in our institutions and governance.
All our efforts and wishes will fail if we cannot demonstrate to our people and to the world at large that we have good and reliable institutions with integrity in place.
This I believe will be the biggest challenge before us in the coming years to celebrate our 70th year of independence. With what I see before me so far in terms of our economic and social achievements, I am confident we will enter our 70th year with heads high.
Our wishes will be our horses to ride.
Ziauddin Choudhury has worked in the higher civil service of Bangladesh early in his career, and later for the World Bank in the US.
