It is wise of the Dhaka Tribune to call only for an “imagining” of Bangladesh’s future. To predict the future has always been hazardous and never more than in today’s world. Climate change and the omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus show only too clearly that no individual country, even the superpowers, is fully independent and in control of its own future.
For Bangladesh, climate change is the most obvious and greatest threat. In future decades temperature rises may cause oceans to rise as well and large sections of coastal areas may well disappear. The coastal region of Bangladesh is 20% of the total and over 30% of the cultivable land, with highly diverse ecosystems to boot. We already have one of the world's highest population densities. People displaced by ocean expansion will seek shelter in a smaller Bangladesh.
With more people and less agricultural land, food prices would escalate. Mega-cities must accommodate the denser population. To continue to build with bricks would require yet more brick kilns. Researchers estimate that almost everyone in the country lives within 10km of a brick kiln, and over 18 million within a kilometre of one. Most use traditional, coal-burning technology, a major contributor to air pollution.
According to FAO, the country has 11.1% forested area, between 1990 and 2010 Bangladesh lost an average 2,600 ha or 0.17 forest per year. There will be no forests by 2041 if no action is taken.
Those who live on and cultivate agriculture in flood-prone land face water pollution bringing in water-borne diseases while commercial pesticides and contaminated water destroy fishing areas. By 2041, polluted effluent from RMG and other industries could destroy all fish and other fauna in our inland water. Kaliakoir Thana in Gazipur District is an example of an industrial cluster where rapid unplanned expansion led to serious land and water pollution. Water-borne disease is rampant -- before 2041 these problems must be addressed by technological innovation.
Bangladesh is still a male-dominated, patriarchal society. In all sectors of the economy and social life, women remain lower in status and are subjected to violence. The country did not fully ratify the Convention Against all Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW). Both the government and eminent NGOs like Brac are working in this area. What women and girls need for empowerment is quality education, employment, and equality of opportunity. I am hopeful that, with necessary facilities, women will be empowered, well before 2041, to work in collaboration with men to create a better society.
The education system will try to cope with growing numbers, but with only 1.3% of GDP the quality will decline. All countries need at least 3.8% of their GDP or more for improvement in education.
Despite setbacks and periods of political turmoil, our resilience and strength have further grown. Far from the days of poverty, not only do we have a massively successful RMG export industry but a widening range of industries and agricultural innovation. Our per capita income, if averaged out ignoring social inequalities, is now higher than most of South Asia and our economy is fully keeping pace with that of India, presently the world’s fastest growing large country.
Much, therefore, has already been achieved. But much more must be done if Bangladesh in 2041 is to see continued progress in the face of so many existing and potential future problems.
The mushrooming of city slums lacking hygienic facilities is causing outbreaks of cholera, smallpox, tuberculosis, and other diseases. According to the WHO, around 64.8% people experience depressive and anxiety disorders. Violence on and harassment of women and girls creates an untenable, chaotic situation.
If allowed to grow, it can destroy the country.
At least population growth rates are falling, but that still leaves a complex and challenging background: What, by 2041, might be Bangladesh’s future? What are we as individuals doing ourselves to shape it? What are our collective strengths and weaknesses?
I grew up in a simpler world, for the most part anyway. The Liberation War, which cost me the life of a much-loved brother, changed it radically. Bangladesh emerged as a free country, but with its physical infrastructure wrecked. Economic prospects seemed bleak. However, most importantly, the continued resilience and strength of its people was also revealed.
We need that resilience again.
In this too-often chaotic, globalized world, every society is changing rapidly. Progress for any nation must depend on civic order and the rights of both men and women. Technological innovation, scientific development, and research will open new ways of tackling problems. The brick kilns and other industrial structures will be converted so that no pollution is emitted to destroy the air. Agriculture will be improved even further. We will plant trees and develop new forest areas.
Before 2041, new technologies will enable high rise rock walls to defend our coastal areas. I have seen this in the capital of Maldives, Male, done with Japanese technology. Such walls, together with our mangroves, will resist water encroachment. All industrial enterprises would use innovative methods to stop any form of pollution on land or water. We will use technology to dredge and clean our many rivers.
This requires good governance, stern commitment, and freedom of press and expression. A higher percentage of GDP should be allocated to improving the quality of education, only then will the country produce trained physicians, surgeons, scientists, mental health specialists, and excellent teachers to work with men and women both in rural and urban areas.
Governments must lead, but we can take pride that local NGOs, born amidst the post-war chaos, have developed into world leaders, transforming Bangladesh’s image and greatly adding to government efforts to promote education and health services. The Bangladesh armed forces make a major contribution to UN peacekeeping efforts in the more troubled areas of the world.
A great deal has yet to be done, both globally and nationally, if Bangladesh is to continue its progress. It will require dedication, respect for human rights, and scientific innovation. Only then by 2041 could Bangladesh not only emerge as a developed country itself but be recognized as a leader in world development.
