In the first eight months (July-February) of the current FY26, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has seen a major deficit in customs and tax collection.
During this period, Tk71,472 crore less revenue was collected than the target. Concerned parties fear that this deficit may exceed Tk100,000 crore by the end of the fiscal year.
According to the latest data from the NBR, the agency's customs and tax collection target for the July-February period of the current fiscal year was Tk325,802 crore. Against this, Tk254,330 crore was collected.
Although there was a growth of about 12% in revenue collection during this period compared to the previous year, there is still a large gap from the target.
The set target could not be achieved in any of the three main revenue collection sectors—import duty, value added tax (VAT) and income tax.
The biggest deficit was in the income tax sector. The target for this sector in eight months was Tk118,509 crore, but Tk85,136 crore taka was collected. As a result, the deficit stood at Tk33,373 crore.
The target was also not met in the import duty sector. Although the target was to collect Tk89,780 crore during this period, Tk71,912 crore was collected. This resulted in a deficit of Tk17,166 crore.
At the same time, Tk97,282 crore was collected in the VAT sector, while the target was Tk118,214 crore.
In this situation, the government will face a big challenge in collecting revenue in the last four months of the fiscal year.
According to the revised budget, the NBR's total revenue collection target for the current fiscal year is Tk5,540 crore.
To meet that target, about Tk300,000 crore will have to be collected in the four months from March to June. That is, an average of more than Tk75,000 crore in revenue will have to be collected every month.
However, those concerned believe that collecting such a huge amount of revenue is difficult in reality. Because no month of the current fiscal year has collected so much revenue.
The highest collection was in January, about Tk3,733 crore. And the lowest collection was in August, Tk2,725.3 crore.
NBR officials say that due to national elections, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the slowdown in trade and commerce, there has been pressure on revenue collection in the current fiscal year. This situation may have an impact in the coming months as well.
Meanwhile, as part of the reform in the revenue sector, an ordinance was issued during the interim government to abolish the NBR and form two separate departments - revenue policy and revenue management.
However, that structure has not been implemented yet.
There has also been a movement due to objections from a section of NBR officials and employees.
As a result, it has become another administrative challenge for the new government.
According to experts, it will be difficult to reduce the revenue deficit without solving the old problems of increasing the tax-GDP ratio, preventing tax evasion, bringing taxable persons outside the tax net under the tax net, increasing the efficiency of the revenue administration and taking strict measures against corruption.
Meanwhile, under the terms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program, Bangladesh has to ensure additional revenue collection equivalent to at least 0.5% of GDP every year.
