Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase global trade by 40% by 2040, a new World Trade Organization (WTO) report has said.
But without having adequate policies, it could also exacerbate economic divides, the report warned.
Adoption of AI would help lessen trade costs, boost productivity and expand participation in global markets, thus aiding increases in global trade coupled with real income.
The development and deployment of AI are also projected to generate a substantial increase in the global GDP, ranging from 12%-13% across scenarios.
The WTO made these projections and observations in its “World Trade Report 2025,” which was formally released in Geneva on Wednesday at a session of the WTO Public Forum 2025.
The theme of the latest World Trade Report was “Making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all.”
Based on the WTO projections, it is estimated that global trade in goods and services may reach $46.20 trillion in 2040 from $33.30 trillion in 2024.
Global services trade, in terms of exports, reached $8.90 trillion in the last year, recording a robust 10% growth over the previous year.
The global exports of goods, however, stood at $24.40 trillion in 2024.
According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34%-37% across different scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle- and high-income economies.
The WTO report also estimated that the global trade in these goods totalled $2.3 trillion in 2023.
However, the report mentioned that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.
Speaking at the report launching session, the WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remain highly uneven."
Within societies, AI could upend labour markets, transform some jobs while displace others, she said, adding that managing such shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets.
"The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in such areas during these past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI," she warned.
"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," DG Okonjo-Iweala added.
According to the report, in a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50% and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15% and 14%, respectively.
