Bangladesh has significantly improved its ability to forecast lightning and severe thunderstorms, but a critical gap in delivering timely warnings to vulnerable communities continues to cost lives, raising questions about the country's progress toward the United Nations-backed Early Warnings for All initiative.
As the world marks International Lightning Safety Day on June 28 under the theme "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors," experts say Bangladesh's challenge is no longer forecasting dangerous weather but ensuring warnings reach farmers, fishermen, and outdoor workers before lightning strikes.
Lightning has become one of the country's deadliest weather-related hazards, with scientists warning that climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms across South Asia.
According to the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), 3,860 people have died in lightning strikes in Bangladesh over the past 12 years. The highest annual death toll was recorded in 2020, when 427 people were killed. As of June 14 this year, lightning had already claimed 132 lives.
Bangladesh declared lightning a national disaster in 2016 following a surge in fatalities.
Some research organization records shows the highest lightning mortality rate per 1,000 square kilometers in South Asia, while globally the country ranks second only to India in annual lightning deaths.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) says it can now issue lightning forecasts one to four hours before storms develop.
However, experts say the country's early warning system breaks down at the final stage—communicating alerts to people working outdoors.
Most warnings are distributed through television, websites and social media, while many farmers and fishermen have limited internet access or do not use smartphones during work.
Bangladesh has yet to introduce a nationwide cell broadcast-based emergency alert system, a technology increasingly recommended by international organizations for delivering hazard warnings instantly to all mobile phones in affected areas.
"The science is available, but the warning often does not reach the people who need it most," said Rashim Molla, general secretary of the Save the Society and Thunderstorm Awareness Forum (SSTAF), to media.
The communication gap mirrors concerns raised under the UN Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, launched by UN Secretary-General António Guterres at COP27 in Egypt earlier.
The initiative aims to ensure every person on Earth is protected by life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027, particularly as climate change fuels more frequent and intense weather extremes.
The program is jointly led by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC).
The ITU has emphasized that effective early warning systems must combine digital connectivity, mobile communication networks, emergency telecommunications, and cell broadcast technology to ensure alerts reach everyone, including those in remote and underserved communities.
The agency also promotes people-centered warning systems, ensuring information is understandable, accessible, and delivered through multiple communication channels so that no one is left behind.
Scientists say rising global temperatures are creating more unstable atmospheric conditions, leading to stronger thunderstorms.
During a recent roundtable at the BMD, meteorological expert Khan Md Golam Rabbani warned that Bangladesh is seeing an increase in continuous current lightning, which carries electrical current for longer periods and can reach temperatures of around 50,000 degrees Fahrenheit.
He also noted a rise in positive lightning, a powerful type of strike capable of occurring several kilometers away from the main storm cloud, catching people off guard even under relatively clear skies.
Senior meteorologist Bazlur Rashid said lightning is no longer confined to the traditional pre-monsoon season.
"Climate change is extending the lightning season into the monsoon months as warmer temperatures continue to generate severe convective storms," he said.
According to researchers from Buet, Bangladesh's northeastern haor basin remains the country's principal lightning hotspot.
Jamalganj in Sunamganj has been identified as one of the highest-risk areas, alongside Sunamganj Sadar, Bishwamvarpur, Netrokona, and parts of Moulvibazar.
These regions are dominated by open agricultural land and wetlands where thousands of farmers and fishermen work with little access to immediate shelter.
Meteorologists and disaster experts say Bangladesh should move beyond forecasting and invest in last-mile communication.
Suggested measures include mobile cell broadcast alerts, automated SMS notifications, mosque loudspeakers, community sirens, local volunteer networks, and stronger coordination between the meteorological department and local governments.
BMD Director Md Mominul Islam said the country's forecasting capability has improved considerably.
"We can now issue forecasts well in advance. The challenge is ensuring those warnings reach vulnerable communities quickly enough for people to take action," he said.
Experts argue that strengthening Bangladesh's last-mile warning system would not only save lives but also support the country's commitments under the UN Early Warnings for All initiative and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which calls for universal access to multi-hazard early warning systems.
"As climate change accelerates, forecasting alone is no longer enough," they say. "The real measure of success is whether the warning reaches the farmer working in a field before the lightning does."
