Several Rohingya armed groups are recruiting members from the Cox's Bazar refugee camps to fight against Myanmar's Arakan Army (AA), according to a report published by the International Crisis Group on Wednesday.
The report said that this approach will not only damage Myanmar's intercommunal relations but also weaken the prospects for Rohingya repatriation.
The report, titled 'Bangladesh-Myanmar: The Risk of Rohingya Insurgency', highlights the risk of recruitment for armed groups from among refugees and suggests ways to mitigate it.
The report said that Rohingya armed groups have become active again in the context of the AA’s continued progress against the military in Rakhine.
These groups, which have been involved in violence for a long time, decided to fight the AA together last November. Although the violence has decreased somewhat, recruitment has increased, especially around religious appeals, as the AA has the support of the Buddhist population of Rakhine.
The report says that the Myanmar-Bangladesh border has almost completely come under the control of the AA. In this situation, the Bangladesh government has made efforts to start talks with them. However, if the Rohingyas launch an armed movement against the AA, the talks may be damaged, and additional uncertainty may arise in the repatriation of refugees.
In early 2024, the army wanted to use the Rohingyas in its favor. Although these groups have opposed the army in the past, this time they have taken a different position to stop the Arakan Army. However, this strategy of the army has not brought any major success in the end.
Bangladeshi security agencies have been in contact with the Rohingya and the AA for a long time, the report added, saying that Bangladesh supports the unity efforts by reducing violence in the refugee camps. In addition, it is believed that there is a plan to put pressure on the AA through the Rohingya groups to repatriate them. It is worth noting that the areas from which the Rohingya were sent away in 2017 are now under the control of the AA.
Meanwhile, the AA has broad public support for its opposition to the junta government. If the Rohingya oppose them, it could actually create more hostility towards the refugees in Myanmar.
According to the Crisis Group, Bangladesh should increase contact with the AA, strengthen trade and aid in Rakhine, and reduce the influence of armed groups in the camps. This will bring stability to the border and build a Rohingya civil society.
The AA should take effective steps to gain the trust of the Rohingya and prove that it is capable of governing with everyone. As the United States is reducing its foreign aid, international donors should increase assistance to the Rohingya camps in Bangladesh, the report added.
