Prof Dr Md Iqbal Hossain, professor at the Department of Chemical Engineering at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) and a certified energy management auditor, speaks to Dhaka Tribune’s Shaikh Shahrukh about Bangladesh’s ongoing energy crisis, growing import dependence, policy shortcomings, and the urgent steps needed to ensure long-term energy security. He is also affiliated with international professional organisations, including AIChE, AEE, and IChemE, and serves as an associate editor of the international journal Energy Exploration and Exploitation.
Dhaka Tribune: How do you assess Bangladesh’s current energy crisis in 2026?
Prof Dr Md Iqbal Hossain: The current energy crisis is not merely a technical problem—it is fundamentally a failure of planning. The situation we are facing today stems from inadequate long-term master planning and a failure to respond to global market changes in time.
In the past, Bangladesh’s energy sector relied heavily on domestic natural gas. Today, however, nearly 60–65% of total energy demand is met through imports. This heavy dependence has increased pressure on foreign currency reserves and made the country highly vulnerable to global price fluctuations.
Many countries restructured their energy policies after the Russia–Ukraine war. What lessons could Bangladesh have learned, particularly from Pakistan?
The Russia–Ukraine war in 2022 caused severe disruptions in the global energy market. Several countries treated it as a wake-up call and adopted strategic measures.
Pakistan, for example, increased its renewable energy share from around 5% to nearly 25% within a relatively short period. This shift has helped save billions of dollars in import costs.
Unfortunately, Bangladesh did not take similar structural steps. At present, renewable energy accounts for only about 5.34% of installed capacity—far below what is required. Instead of long-term reforms, we focused primarily on short-term solutions.
Every crisis brings lessons, but in this case, we did not learn enough from the events of 2022.
How important is energy efficiency compared to building new power plants?
There is a strong tendency to prioritize the construction of new power plants, but reducing energy wastage is equally important. In fact, energy savings are equivalent to new power generation.
Countries such as Germany, Japan, and France have achieved global leadership by prioritising energy efficiency and advanced energy management systems.
In Bangladesh, industry groups like BGMEA and BKMEA frequently raise concerns about energy shortages. However, an important question remains: how many factories are implementing modern energy management practices?
The government should introduce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) linked to incentives. Industries that demonstrate measurable improvements in energy efficiency should be rewarded. Such a policy framework is essential at this stage.
Refinery modernisation has been widely discussed. Why is the Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) important?
Refinery modernisation is critical for ensuring energy security. Currently, Bangladesh has only one state-owned refinery—Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL)—with an annual processing capacity of about 1.5 million metric tons, while national demand is around 7 million metric tons.
The Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) measures refinery sophistication. Bangladesh’s existing refinery has an NCI of around 5, classifying it as a simple refinery.
In contrast, many refineries in India have NCI values of 15 or higher, allowing them to process a wider range of crude oils.
The proposed Eastern Refinery-2 (ERL-2) project must ensure a sufficiently high NCI. If it remains below 9, Bangladesh may continue to face limitations in processing diverse crude types.
Private sector refineries—such as those proposed in Mongla and Narsingdi—should also be granted regulated operational flexibility to help reduce pressure on state infrastructure.
How risky is Bangladesh’s growing dependence on LNG and spot market purchases?
In 2010, around 75% of electricity generation in Bangladesh relied on natural gas. As domestic reserves declined, the country shifted towards imported LNG. Today, nearly 30% of total gas supply comes from LNG imports.
Although Bangladesh has long-term agreements with Qatar and Oman, additional demand is often met through the spot market, which is significantly more expensive and financially risky.
Energy diversification should have begun much earlier. Coal-based base-load power plants were expected to reduce reliance on LNG, but some are not operating at full capacity—highlighting weaknesses in long-term planning.
What are the geopolitical considerations regarding the import of Russian crude oil?
Importing Russian crude oil is not only a political issue—it is also a technical and strategic one.
If refineries are not capable of processing a specific type of crude oil, importing it—even at a lower price—does not make economic sense.
Moreover, Bangladesh maintains extensive trade relations with the United States and its allies. Therefore, international sanctions and trade considerations must be carefully evaluated.
Decisions should be based on technical feasibility and strategic assessment, rather than political or emotional considerations.
What long-term policy decisions are necessary to ensure Bangladesh’s energy security?
Incremental reforms will no longer be sufficient. What Bangladesh needs now are bold and decisive policy actions.
To achieve the target of 30% renewable energy by 2030, the country must secure long-term financing at affordable rates. At the same time, technical and financial support from international partners will be crucial.
Three strategic priorities must be addressed:
- Accelerating domestic gas exploration
- Ensuring efficient operation of coal-based power plants
- Improving industrial energy efficiency
Ultimately, one fundamental reality must be recognized: without energy security, sustainable development is impossible.
