The government will remain tough on the opposition to make the journey towards election smooth, unchallenged and non-violent, if the BNP-led 18-party alliance does not shift its position of boycotting and resisting polls under this government, sources close to the administration have said.
Moreover, Friday’s crackdown on the opposition has made the political scenario hazy overnight, especially with the elections ahead, which according to the constitution, must be held before January 24, analysts and politicians in different tiers have observed.
Some district and upazila level BNP leaders on Saturday told the Dhaka Tribune over phone that they believed that the latest arrest of their top leaders was to weigh down the confidence of party leaders and activists and keep BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia away from her party colleagues to weaken the movement.
“I think the government wants to make Madam [Khaleda] lonely,” said Azizur Rahman, a leader of Cox’s Bazar district unit BNP. “[The government wants] to pressure Madam to keep her away from the movement.”
“By arresting our leaders, the government wants to hold one-sided elections without any interruption,” said Hafizur Rahman, general secretary of Lalmonirhat district unit BNP.
Speculations have been ripe in the every sphere of the society about the future political scenario after Friday’s arrests.
On Friday night, police arrested three former ministers and BNP policymakers Moudud Ahmed, MK Anwar, Rafiqul ISlam Miah, one of Khaleda Zia’s advisers Abdul Awal Mintoo and her special assistant Shimul Biswas.
Police did not immediately give the reasons behind the arrests. However, when the producing the BNP leaders before a Dhaka court on Saturday, police said they had been picked up for their alleged involvement in killing law enforcers and bomb blasts.
Police also alleged that the BNP leaders had termed the government “illegal” which incited officials to not carry out orders.
Whatever the grounds might be, some political analysts observed that the arrests would fade out the hope of dialogue between the Awami League and BNP and deepen the political crisis.
Ruling Awami League Presidium Member Nuh-ul-Alam Lenin, however, said the arrest would not create any new political crisis.
He said: “We never said we wanted to hold election without BNP. The door for dialogue and solution is still very much open.
“But the BNP said instead of joining, it would resist the polls. In these circumstances, election environment will be hampered if BNP continues its journey along the path of violence.”
The ruling party leader said it was the government’s duty to create a conducive environment for election and ensure safety of people and their properties.
“It cannot be expected that the government would remain silent when they [BNP-led alliance] enforce one hartal after another without any reason and leading to the deterioration of law and order through violence.”
“The government’s goal is to hold the national elections peacefully,” said the ruling party policymaker.
Meanwhile, sources close to the administration have said the government would maintain the hardline until the elections were held.
On the other hand, although some grassroots BNP leaders believed that the arrests “could not shatter the moral strength” of the leaders and activists, they admitted that the arrests could “spread panic among some leaders.”
“I can tell you, under the present circumstances, BNP will not participate in the national elections,” said Khandakar Mahbub Hossain, Khaleda Zia’s adviser. “Begum Khaleda Zia will not move from her position.”
He also said the main point of disagreement was “who will be the chief” of the polls-time government. BNP did not want Sheikh Hasina to remain the head of the election-time government.
“I personally believe that the political situation would be more confrontational and complicated after on Saturday [Friday],” he said.
However, senior lawyer Rafique-Ul Huq said: “It will be a huge advantage for the Awami League if BNP does not contest the elections because they is exactly what they want.”
BNP chairperson’s adviser Mahbub thinks that the government may hold the election without BNP but the post-election scenario will not be normal. “They will have to run the government in an abnormal situation.”
Barrister Rafique said he believed that “the government has made a mistake” by arresting the BNP leaders.
“They [the government] ruined the possibility of a dialogue between two leaders” the veteran lawyer said, adding: “We have seen rivals reach agreements even amid extreme war situations.”
“So a dialogue can be held if the two parties are sincere,” he said. “The government should release the arrested leaders to pave the way for a dialogue.”
Cox’s Bazar BNP leader Azizur said: “It is a test of nerves for the BNP. Madam [Khaleda Zia] has always won this test in the past.”
Sarwar Kamal, vice president of Cox’s Bazar district unit BNP, said they would continue with their movement no matter what the circumstances were. “For carrying on with the movement, just our strength is not always enough. Sometimes we need support from international powers.”
