Just six months away from the general elections, the ruling Awami League is likely to plunge into a political predicament over Saturday’s polls to the four city corporations, no matter whether its candidates win or lose in the local government fray.
The main opposition BNP, now spearheading a campaign for restoration of the non-party caretaker government provision in the constitution to administer next parliamentary polls, seems to reap a benefit from the four city corporation polls.
In case of triumph of the Awami League candidates in any of the cities, even in the fairest polls, the BNP and its allies are likely to raise the allegation of vote rigging and thus injecting new life into their ongoing movement.
On the other hand if the BNP candidates win it will give a clear signal of slide in Awami League’s popularity that will eventually affect the next general elections due in January next year.
Again it will encourage the opposition to strengthen its oust-government movement.
Political researcher Dr Nizam Uddin Ahmed, a professor of public administration at Chittagong University, said the city corporation polls, though a non-partisan one election, will see a straight fight between the Awami League and BNP ahead of the national elections.
“The city corporation polls will, of course, influence the general elections. If the BNP wins, they may think of participating in the polls under the interim administration that Awami League has put forward,” said Nizam who wrote several books on Bangladesh politics.
“Awami League’s defeat will dent its popularity ahead of the national polls,” he said.
He said the government would not intervene in the voting as it would then lose its credibility of holding the next general elections under an interim administration comprising elected representatives, not under the non-party caretaker government.
Even a shadow of doubt in the election will give the opposition strong grounds for the caretaker government restoration campaign, he said.
“The Awami League is in two-pronged problem. Let us see how they handle it”.
Rezaul Bari Dina, a former whip of the BNP-led 8th parliament, told Dhaka Tribune that the government should not intervene in the city polls to prove its sincerity to hold fair polls under its administration.
SM Akram, a former Awami League MP and chairman of public accounts committee, said the city corporation must influence the next general elections as the national leaders of the two political fronts had made it a ‘prestige issue’.
Again, he said, the BNP-led opposition would raise the allegation of irregularities if any of their candidates lose even in fair polls and go for vigorous movement.
Another political researcher and former MP of the BNP, who in 2006 predicted a huge defeat of the BNP-led alliance in the annulled ninth parliamentary polls on January 22 same year, told Dhaka Tribune that the city corporation polls would be watershed event in our politics ahead.
“A victorious BNP will popularise the campaign that the Awami League is sure to rig the next general elections as they have failed to win any one of four city corporation polls,” he said.
If otherwise, he noted, the BNP will launch vigorous movement in favour of their demands for reinstating the caretaker government in the charter.
The BNP MPs on Thursday told parliament that they had been taking part in the city corporation polls to observe how impartially the government and the Election Commission organise the elections.
Professor Tofail Ahmed, a local government expert, however, differed.
“The elections will help the two political fronts – the Awami League and BNP –to assess their popularity ahead of the polls, no doubt.
“But it will not be wise to judge the whole country on the basis of the results of the city corporation polls,” he told the Dhaka Tribune.
Brig Gen M Sakhawat Hossain told the Dhaka Tribune that the four city corporation polls were major challenge for the present Election Commission.
“If the EC can hold the polls in free and fair ways, its credibility among people and the political parties will be established,” Sakhawat said.
