On the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, experts say the impact of the biggest war in Europe since World War II has been felt in Bangladesh on many fronts, from economic to energy supplies to diplomatic challenges.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to resist the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and reclaim its historical sphere of influence around its western borders.
Since then, Western countries have been pushing Bangladesh to take a position in favour of Ukraine. As for Dhaka, it has always maintained a policy of “friendship to all, malice towards none” in foreign policy. Besides, Russia is a historic friend.
Still, Bangladesh had to vote in favour of Ukraine at the UN twice and has abstained on three occasions.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky recently met Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Munich and sought Bangladesh’s support for his peace formula, which Moscow has rejected.
“The war has devastated the world economy. We also felt the pinch. Our economy is in crisis due to the war,” Mohammad Hatem, executive president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), told Dhaka Tribune.
“Export oriented industries, other industries all were affected due to the war. Export orders dropped significantly. Energy prices went up, we faced the dollar crisis,” he said, adding: “And the crisis is deepening every day.”
Hatem, owner of MB Knit Fashion, said: “Just take an example of my own company; my net loss was Tk30 crore due to the Russia-Ukraine war.”
Bangladesh imports various goods, including food grains, arms and military equipment, from both Russia and Ukraine. Russian energy companies also work in Bangladesh. The conflict disrupts energy supplies from Russia, leading to higher energy prices globally, affecting Bangladesh's energy imports and overall cost of living.
International Business Forum of Bangladesh (IBFB) President Humayun Rashid told Dhaka Tribune: “We had to pay more for energy due to the war. Today’s foreign currency crisis is also a result of the war.
“It also affected the food grain supply. But we felt it less due to our local supply. In the last two years, we did not have calamities at the local level. That’s why we did not face this food grain supply crisis,” he said.
“But it impacted our manpower market. We could also send manpower to Russia. Our trade relations were also supposed to grow with Russia. But due to the war, it did not happen. From the wage-earning point of view, we have also been affected. The process has been slowed down. But it’s regaining gradually,” Humayun Rashid said.
“If there had been no war, our economy could be in a better position. Our exports would have gone up with the employment rate. New markets could have been created with new products to export to those places.”
He, however, suggested the government devise policies on what to do once the war is over. “It should be planned now.”
Bangladesh, like other nations, has also faced challenges on the diplomatic front.
When Ukraine President Zelensky sought a meeting with the prime minister on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Bangladesh agreed..
Russia, however, said that it hoped the meeting would not have any impact on its relations with Bangladesh.
Before the meeting, Russian ambassador to Bangladesh Aleksandr Mantytsky reminded that Moscow rejects the Ukraine peace formula.
President Zelensky sought support from Bangladesh for his peace formula. The prime minister, however, asked all parties to end the war and maintained her non-aligned policy.
Prof Shahab Enam Khan, at the International Relations Department of Jahangirnagar University, told Dhaka Tribune that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a deadlock situation.
“Neither side is able to convince the rest of the world that the war will end in a way the western world envisages. Russia has already gained the upper hand. This polarization - the Russian side and the western side - puts pressure on Bangladesh,” he said.
“The western bloc thought Russia would be weakened, but that did not happen. So, the Russian bloc has greater influence on countries like Bangladesh. This will put Bangladesh in a further complicated situation because the polarization will put trade and other relations into difficulties.
"US sanctions will be a critical factor for global trade and investment and the region in which Bangladesh has a stake,” he said.
