First-time and young voters are set to play a decisive role in Bangladesh’s 13th National Parliamentary Election on February 12, with over 4.5 million newly registered voters likely to influence the outcome, according to data from the Election Commission (EC).
The EC reports that 4,571,216 citizens have been added to the voter list for the first time ahead of the election and referendum. Of these new voters, approximately 1.87 million are men, 2.7 million are women, and 251 identify as third gender, bringing the country’s total electorate to 127.7 million.
Political analysts say the growing influence of young and first-time voters, many aged between 18 and 33, could reshape traditional voting patterns. This is particularly significant in closely contested constituencies, where margins of victory have historically been narrow. Young voters now account for more than 34% of the total electorate, underscoring their potential impact on the upcoming polls.
Youth vote as a game-changer
Election Commissioner Md Anwarul Islam Sarkar has highlighted the growing influence of young voters, noting that they now constitute nearly one-third of the population and are showing strong interest in participating in the upcoming election.
“One-third of the total population is young. Many of them could not vote in the past,” he said. “The number of young voters will be the deciding factor in this election.”
In Kushtia-1, voter Alpana Khatun, who was registered in 2013, said she was deprived of voting in the past.
“I went to my village home to vote, but before I could even reach the polling center, someone told me there was no need to go because the vote had already been cast,” she said.
“This time, I will definitely cast my vote.” Others, however, remain cautious.
Hazrat Hania Ratul, a voter from Narsingdi-4, said she stayed away from the last election because she felt it was “dummy and one-sided,”
“I already knew what the outcome would be,” she said.
“This time, even if I don’t vote for a candidate, I will go to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum.”
Demand for change drives youth choices
First-time voters are largely motivated by a desire for change, with priorities extending beyond traditional political rhetoric. Employment opportunities, quality education, good governance, law and order, and modern civic amenities are among the top concerns for this group.
Students, in particular, echo these expectations. Afroza Khandakar, a third-year student at Jahangirnagar University, emphasized the importance of education and employment.
“If the quality of education is not improved and jobs are not created at the expected rate, the future of young people will remain uncertain,” she said. “That is why these issues must be among the top priorities of this poll.”
Similarly, Anik Kundu, a sociology student at the University of Dhaka, highlighted the significance of democratic development.
“Without proper democratic development, problems like communalism, discrimination, and violence cannot be solved,” he said. “If this election contributes to establishing democracy, it will bring positive change.”
Observers note that the focus of first-time voters signals a shift toward issues that directly impact daily life and the nation’s long-term future.
Shifting loyalties, high indecision
Findings from Innovation’s latest election surveys show sharp variations in voting preferences across age groups.
Jamaat-e-Islami draws relatively stronger support among younger voters, particularly those aged 18–24, while BNP’s support base is more pronounced among voters aged 45–60, according to the survey data.
Within the broader 18–45 age range, BNP holds an edge, especially among voters aged 28–45.
Innovations Consulting, the organization that conducted several election surveys before the 12 February poll, its Managing Director, Rubaiyat Sarwar, told Dhaka Tribune that these trends have remained consistent across surveys, but indecision is highest among Gen Z voters.
“A large portion of young voters are swing voters, and they want change,” he said,
Cautioning against expectations of a landslide victory He said, “An 8, 10, or even 12 percentage-point margin may appear in most of the constituencies. This forecast is giving hints that the February 12 poll is going to be the most competitive elections in a long time.”
He added that the absence of the Awami League has prompted many voters to consider newer political parties, increasing volatility in the final days of campaigning.
Awami League, one of the major political parties of the country, traditionally holds more than 30 percentage voters, is currently barred from participating in the election with the Election Commission decision, as their activities have been banned after the August 5, 2025 monsoon revolution in Bangladesh.
This time, BNP, Jamaat -e-Islam, Jatiya Party, student-led NCP, most of the left and Islamic parties are contesting in this polls and the election suveys suggestd that main competition will be between BNP and Jamaar led alliancs in this national poll after the moonsoon revolution.
Voices from the young voters
Among first-time voters, participation itself carries symbolic weight.
Abdullah Al Safi, a first-time voter from Pabna-3, said voting is about finally being able to choose.
“Since democracy is giving me the chance to choose my representative, I will vote,” he said, citing local agricultural issues as important to his decision. Some youth remain undecided.
Muntaha Rahman Manami from Dhaka-14 said she skipped her first opportunity to vote because she felt the election was orchestrated.
“I did not want to waste my first vote on a farcical election,” she said.
“I am still observing and want to choose candidates who will work in the national interest.”
Meanwhile, a BRAC official Saikat Adnan said the atmosphere feels different this time.
“I did not vote in the last election due to irregularities,” he said.
“Now, I want to support a party that can establish democracy, meet basic needs, fight corruption, and protect freedom of speech and an independent judiciary.”
Young voters’ growing demographic weight
EC age-based data underline the scale of youth influence. According to the EC, 8.53 million voters are aged 18–21, 19.62 million are 22–25, 12.22 million are 26–29, and 16.87 million are 30–33.
By comparison, voters aged 60 and above number 19.35 million.“Young voters will play a big and decisive role in the upcoming election, and if they cast their votes collectively for a particular party, that could significantly influence the outcome,” said Dr Badiul Alam Majumder, chairman of the Election System Reform Commission and secretary of the civil society platform Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik (SHUJAN).
He noted that student union election results seem to show support for the Jamaat-allied coalition, though it remains unclear how this will translate at the national polls.
“What happens in the election is still an open question,” he added.
Polling preparations complete
Meanwhile, the EC says it has completed preparations for polling.
EC Senior Secretary Akhtar Ahmed said voting will take place at 42,766 polling stations nationwide, with 247,482 booths or polling rooms.
A total of 785,225 presiding and polling officers will be deployed for the election and referendum.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, all eyes are now on whether first-time and young voters will turn out in large numbers, and which political forces can successfully translate youth aspirations into electoral support.
