In the 11 parliamentary elections that have taken place since 1973, the Dhaka-2 constituency has been won by the Awami League six times, including three consecutive terms by AL Presidium Member Md Qamrul Islam, while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has been successful five times.
Former minister Qamrul Islam thrashed his rival from the BNP-led Jatiya Oikyo Front, Erfan Ibn Aman Omi, in the 2018 elections held on December 30. The turnout was 81% against 494,346 voters—an increase of five times since 1991.
Advocate Qamrul Islam got 339,581 votes (85%). Omi bagged 47,195 votes (11.8%), while Islami Andolan Bangladesh's (IAB) Md Zahirul Islam received 8,104 votes (2%).
Barrister Omi is the organizing secretary of the Dhaka district BNP and son of Aman Ullah Aman, the convenor of the party's Dhaka city north unit and former MP from Dhaka-3 constituency.
Qamrul Islam, now 73, is a member of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the Chittagong Hill Tracts Affairs Ministry.
He was elected unopposed from the same seat in the 10th parliamentary election in 2014, boycotted by the BNP, and inducted into the Cabinet as the food minister.
The constituency consists of Hazratpur, Kalatia, Taranagar, Shakta, Kalindi, Rohitpur and Basta unions of Keraniganj Upazila, Sultanganj Union of Hazaribagh, Ward No 55, 56 and 57 under Kamrangirchar police station of Dhaka South City Corporation, and Aminbazar, Tentuljhora and Bhakurta unions of Savar Upazila.
Dhaka Tribune notes a shifting political landscape in Dhaka-2 with the AL and the BNP winning the seat alternatively, with former BNP state minister Abdul Mannan coming out victorious four times.
This exhaustive analysis depicts the 11 parliamentary election outcomes since 1973 to identify patterns and trends in the electoral landscape of the constituency ahead of the twelfth national election.
To this point, none of the main political parties has announced who their candidates would be for the position of Member of Parliament (MP), although prominent BNP leaders have been spotted participating in activities to strengthen the party and prove that they are qualified to run for the position.
This time, the party might put forward a formidable candidate to challenge Qamrul Islam and put an end to his unbeaten streak.
On the other hand, Qamrul is attending the AL's peace rallies, organized as a counter to the ongoing anti-government movement waged simultaneously by the BNP and other like-minded parties.
However, Chairman of Keraniganj Upazila and President of AL Keraniganj South unit Shaheen Ahmed is seeking nomination this time. On July 21, he arranged a views exchange meeting with the grassroots leaders of the party.
Speaking at the event, Shaheen said that when he wanted to contest the elections in 2014 and 2018, the party chief, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, had asked him not to vote. Shaheen hoped that he would get the nomination this time.
Other small parties, like the Jatiya Party, Communist Party of Bangladesh, Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal, Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB) do not have strong candidates in this constituency.
Previous polls
In 2008, Qamrul Islam got 57% of the votes needed to win the election, whereas the BNP's Md Matiur Rahman secured 39.4%. He served as the state minister for law from 2009-14.
Deceased BNP vice chairman and former state minister for civil aviation and tourism Abdul Mannan got 41.8% of the votes in 1991, 100% in the February 15 election of 1996, and 47% on June 25 of the same year, and 50.5% in the 2001 election.
His rivals were the AL's Azizur Rahman (32.2%) in 1991, A Baten Mian (31.7%) in 1996, and Mohammad Noor Ali (48.7%) in 2001.
Abdul Mannan served as the state minister from 1991-96. He died on August 4, 2020, while undergoing treatment for kidney diseases and old-age complications.
Earlier, the AL's Burhan Uddin Khan won the seat in the elections in 1986 and 1988, the BNP's Abdul Halim Chowdhury in 1979, and the AL's Moslem Uddin Khan in 1973.
