Bangladesh’s efforts to increase the power generation capacity over the last year have failed to make a significant dent in reducing the intensity of load shedding in the peak demand-season of April-May.
Power Division officials say the power outage would be the same this year as last despite some improvement in mitigating the electricity supply shortage. This is due to a demand growth simultaneously with the improvement in supply situation.
Load shedding is on the cards for Bangladesh in April and May, for an average of two to three hours a day, mostly due to shortages in the supply of gas by Petrobangla.
Sources said if the rainy season is delayed, load shedding could continue into June.
Irrigation needs during the Boro planting season, previously a major cause for load shedding in urban areas, will not contribute to load shedding this year, Power Division sources said. But inadequate supplies of gas will, they added.
A Power Division official said power supply shortage to the tune of around 1,000MW is expected in April and May, forcing the authorities to go for load shedding particularly in the urban areas.
Both the supply and demand of electricity have risen over the last five years. But the government has managed to halve the supply shortfall from 2,200MW in 2011 to 1,000MW this year.
The demand for electricity peaks in the heat of the summer Boro irrigation season, which takes place between March and May, according to the Power Division.
Estimated peak demand during this period is around 8,500MW, an increase from the peak demand of 8,200MW last year.
“Against the average demand of 8,500MW during the summer Boro irrigation period, we will be able to produce around 8,000MW of electricity,” Power Division Secretary Monwar Islam told the Dhaka Tribune.
“But if Petrobangla fails to supply sufficient gas, electricity production will not exceed a maximum of 7,500MW during the irrigation season,” he added.
Supply-Demand Gap
Bangladesh currently has a net (de-rated) installed capacity for electricity generation of about 9,600MW. But actual generation is less than that.
The forced shut downs of power plants for maintenance works would leave 1,662MW of capacity unused by the peak season. Another 603MW cannot be tapped due to gas shortages.
Gas shortages have hindered newly installed capacity from significantly improving the supply situation.
On March 14, a simple cycle unit of a newly built 225MW combined cycle power plant and the Ashuganj 200MW Modular Power Plant at Ashuganj Power Station began commercial production.
But the project director of the two plants, Ajit Kumar Sarkar, yesterday told the Dhaka Tribune: “We are not able to fully run the power plants due to shortages of gas.”
“The two new power plants require around 75mmcfd of gas to operate at optimal levels. But there is no new gas allocation for the power plants. Meanwhile, Ashuganj Power Station shut down two units – a combined capacity of 90MW – because they have come to the end of their service lives,” he said.
Moreover, 44MW of hydro-power capacity lies idle because of low water levels in Kaptai Lake.
After adjusting for these hindrances, around 7,300MW can be generated. This, however, is augmented by around 200MW – adding up to 7,500MW of expected electricity production – made available by diverting gas away from fertiliser factories and towards power plants, and by running smaller and newer plants at close to full tilt.
No problem, Boro
Power Division sources said they are prepared to supply adequate amounts of electricity to rural areas for Boro irrigation without having to resort to load shedding in urban areas.
The Power Development Board requires 1,250 million cubic feet of gas per day for grid-feeding power plants during the Boro season to increase power generation from gas-fired plants.
A director of Petrobangla said over 900mmcfd gas was supplied to the power plants during the Boro season. He said another 100mmcfd would be added by April.
“Five electricity distribution companies so far provided a total of 22,064 new electricity connections for irrigation this year, raising the number of pumps to 357,057. The new connections required about 100MW of power,” the power division secretary said.
“We have made special arrangements to supply uninterrupted power to rural areas from 10pm to 8am until May,” he added, saying that power utilities would divert electricity from urban areas to the Boro fields at the off-peak hours of 10pm to 8am during the cultivation season.
An official of the division added: “The Division has estimated demand of about 1,800MW of power for Boro irrigation this year.”
Last year, the electricity demand for irrigation during the Boro season was 1,700MW.
