As innocent people continue to be maimed and killed, children burned, vehicles torched and the country’s economy battered, the question on everyone’s lips is: What is the way out of this costly and bitter impasse?
Political analysts agree that neither the Awami League nor the BNP have made appreciable gains in the bitter row that has held the country hostage since the new year.
Analysts also agree that the two parties, in common, have successfully alienated the public, who are increasingly unhappy with having to suffer the consequences of a feud that is narrowly focused on the power of the political elite.
The Dhaka Tribune has tried to discover what the exit strategy is for the country’s clashing political behemoths and for the people of the country.
Since January 5 — the one-year anniversary of the general elections — at least 72 people have been killed and 60 are currently being treated for violence-related burn injuries.
The fatalities are mainly the result of arson attacks on buses, trucks, cars and CNG-run auto-rickshaws, but also include crude bomb blasts and “shoot outs” with law enforcers.
Over 1,000 vehicles have been smashed or torched, 11 trains have been derailed and much of the country’s transportation system has been severely hampered.
Some 14 people have been killed in “shoot outs” with law enforcement personnel and more than 7,000 people have been arrested in several weeks of political unrest.
Supporters of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who boycotted the 2014 general elections, demand that the government resign and hold new elections immediately, but Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina says her government will remain in office until her term ends in 2019.
The hostilities follow a year of relative calm and have raised fears it may escalate as it did in 2013, when political violence left nearly 300 people dead.
The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry estimates the country has already sustained losses in all sectors of over Tk75,000cr during the previous month.
The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association said losses in the apparel sector had reached nearly Tk21,700cr.
Most tellingly, Bangladesh Bank has revised the country’s GDP growth forecast from the government’s original estimate of 7.3% down to 6.5% – 6.8%.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have taken an even more cautious view, estimating GDP growth at 6.2%. The Asian Development Bank, taking a middle view, has forecast 6.4% GDP growth. But all agree that GDP growth was hit hard by prolonged instability.
Restoring law and order
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has asked law enforcers to get tough with blockade enforcers whom she has described as “monsters.”
“As the premier, I am giving you the liberty to take any action, wherever and whenever necessary, against the arsonists,” she said while addressing senior officials of Bangladesh Police to mark Police Week 2015 at her Tejgaon office on January 28.
The government temporarily blocked Viber, WhatsApp and other messaging applications in many parts of the country though access was later restored.
But BNP chief Khaleda Zia’s Gulshan office, where she is temporarily residing, has been subject to a landline telephone, fax and internet blackout since January 31 which remains in effect.
Mobile telephony and wireless services were also blocked for about a week and then later re-enabled.
The power supply to the office was disconnected for nineteen hours overnight from January 31 to the following day, but then restored.
Nuh-ul-Alam Lenin, Awami League presidium member, claimed the BNP was carrying out criminal activities in the name of the movement and killing innocent people.
He said that this was not democratic practice.
“The BNP is trying to force the government to step down from office. The government is not concerned by this. But if the violence continues, the government will not remain a silent spectator.
“The government will get tougher. Remember: Government is responsible for ensuring people’s security. The way people are being killed, government is concerned about that. The BNP is basically provoking the government to become tougher,” he said.
Movement to continue
BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia recently said in a press statement: “The movement...will continue to its logical conclusion.”
Claiming that government and AL forces had killed at least 33 BNP alliance men under the guise of “gun fights” and other means since January 6, she said the government had taken over the media and was disseminating propaganda “against her party and its democratic movement.”
Khaleda claimed that she was confined to her Gulshan office since January 3 and announced a non-stop transportation blockade after failing to leave her office to join a rally on January 5.
Although the police barricades that had been placed in front of her office were removed on January 19, she has remained there and said the blockade would continue.
But she distanced herself and her 20-party alliance from the deadly violence, mostly arson and firebombing, that has rocked the country.
“We strongly condemn these horrible attacks on innocent people. We also express deep sympathy and condolences to those who have been injured or killed.
“We have urged earlier that saboteurs be identified and that exemplary punishment is meted out. I am repeating this demand again today,” Khaleda said.
The BNP chief has hinted that that her party was being framed for the violence by ruling party supporters: “No one has been caught red-handed for the attacks. In some places, ruling party men have been caught by police with bombs, bullets and firearms but were then let go.
“Without any evidence or investigation, the police have filed cases according to the directives of high-ups against national and local leaders of the opposition alliance.”
Industries Minister Amir Hossain Amu, who heads a government committee on law and order, said security forces had detained over 7,000 people in recent weeks.
The BNP claims the true number is higher.
Amu said the government was offering up to Tk100,000 bounties for information leading to the arrest of those behind the arson.
International concern
Western diplomats, the United States, the EU and the United Nations have urged all sides to shun violence and peacefully resolve the political dispute.
British High Commissioner Robert Gibson has called on all sides to work together to break the cycle of violence in which “innocent people are paying the ultimate price for the ongoing situation.”
US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf called on the government to provide the necessary space for peaceful political activity, and for all parties to instruct their members to refrain from violence, in a press statement.
Transparency International Bangladesh Executive Director Iftekhar Zaman said that the violence: “is not only undermining prospects of democracy and governance, but also causing extreme forms of damage to democratic institutions.”
“Having locked themselves in a zero-sum game of power, our political parties and leaders are not only exposing their political bankruptcy, but also increasing on a daily basis their distance from the people and public interest,” he said.
Amnesty International, in a statement, called on both the government and opposition parties to uphold the letter and the spirit of international humanitarian law and norms.
It said the government risked making the country’s situation worse by giving police “carte blanche to use excessive force” in response to petrol bomb attacks.
It also said: “International human rights law protects the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and peaceful protest, but the manner in which the BNP-led protests are being carried out clearly shows a repeated pattern of violence being used for a political purpose.”
What next?
Communist Party of Bangladesh President Mujahidul Islam Selim has opined that uncertainty was the only certain element in Bangladeshi politics.
He told the Dhaka Tribune that the market value of the two major political parties seemed to depend on which was more repressive than the other.
He said both major parties must shoulder the responsibility for the situation the country is in.
“The Awami League has been saying everything will be normal – which shows a lack of responsibility – and the BNP has to shoulder the responsibility for the deaths of the common people.
“News reports have said that ruling party men were involved in some incidents but that leaders had them released claiming they were innocent,” he said.
Former president of Bangladesh and Bikalpadhara Bangladesh President AQM Badruddoza Chowdhury yesterday expressed fears that Bangladesh could be plunged into civil war if the two bickering sides do not hold talks.
There is a growing sense among political observers that neither side is likely to back down.
Political Analyst Afsan Chowdhury told the Dhaka Tribune: “Neither party practises real politics because neither is truly accountable to the people. The parties have achieved nothing but the alienation of the people.”
Afsan said neither party could be said to be practising real politics because both were involved solely in power politics—a narrow struggle to assume power.
“The BNP is conducting a movement not for the people but to compel the Awami League to hold an election. So the people do not expect much from them,” he said.
Imtiaz Ahmed, professor of International Relations at Dhaka University, said: “The situation will continue until the January 5 election issue is settled – the level of violence and sabotage will rise at times and fall at others. Both parties believe that their position is correct.”
Imtiaz said the victimisation of the public is nothing new in Bangladesh. He said neither party cares much for the common person.
With the two sides implacably at odds with the other, the answer to the question of how this crisis can be brought to an end seems elusive.
Both sides say the only way out is if their demands are met. Neither offers much scope for compromise.
For the public that probably means that they must expect more of the same and watch helplessly as a culture of violence takes root in the country.
The question will then be: Who will the public hold responsible for that?
