The Supreme Court ruling that rejected Khaleda Zia’s appeals in two corruption cases against her and others including her elder son, has reinforced the dominance of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, The Economist reports.
Published yesterday on its website, the report claims that Hasina had put the BNP chairperson under house arrest and barred the BNP’s electoral ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, from running.
With no opposition, it was a shoo-in for Hasina’s Awami League, it says.
The UK-based magazine claims that the government has continued to capture the courts, silence media critics and tinker with the constitution to perpetuate its rule.
It says Jatiya Party Chairman HM Ershad, also a special envoy to the prime minister, acts as the loyal opposition. “Without an effective opposition, she is under little pressure.”
The report also states that despite a “deeply flawed election,” many countries including India, Russia and China are extending supports to the Awami League government.
Regarding the corruption cases, it says the recent ruling clears the way for Khaleda to stand trial. The prosecutors accuse her of having siphoned off cash from charitable trusts set up in memory of her late husband, Gen Ziaur Rahman. “If found guilty, the country’s second-most-powerful woman could face time in jail.”
The court ruling comes eight months after she won an unprecedented second term in an election boycotted by Khaleda’s BNP.
“After a nervous start and amid calls for fresh polls, her government has hit its stride. Some sympathisers argue that Sheikh Hasina’s rule is justified, if only because of her success in developing the economy. Poverty has fallen rapidly since her return to power in 2009.
“The economy is now twice as big as when the kleptocratic and incompetent rule of Khaleda Zia’s government ended in 2006 – the moment the army locked up both battling begums.”
After its coup, the army discovered that governing was less enjoyable than it had imagined. It has since taken a back seat. “It earns a handy $500m a year from its UN peacekeeping missions, the arms budget has grown nicely, and new additions to the army’s business portfolio include yet another luxury hotel as well as a cattle ranch.”
At the same time, Hasina’s government has “continued to capture the courts, silence media critics and tinker with the constitution to perpetuate its rule.”
It has a two-thirds majority in parliament, and its ally JaPa of former dictator Ershad acts as the loyal opposition.
On September 17, parliament passed a constitutional amendment to give it the authority to fire judges.
“The BNP has little choice but to wait until the next general election, which need not take place until 2019. Its claim that the Awami League is imploding is wishful thinking. Although the economy has recently slowed, the banking sector is in bad shape and law and order is shaky, no full-blown crisis is in sight.”
Terming the ruling government “shrewd in some respects,” the report says the government has kept pending the long-overdue verdicts of the war crimes tribunal.
On September 17, the Appellate Division commuted a death sentence for Sayedee to imprisonment until death.
Mentioning that all those charged for war crimes are members of Jamaat, the report says: “Sayedee’s sentencing for war crimes last year triggered a wave of fatal street unrest. This latest ruling, along with, in effect, a suspension of the war crimes trials, hints that they [Jamaat] have outlived their usefulness as a political tool.”
The report also mentions about a recent opinion poll to say: “Perhaps surprisingly, the government is now considerably more popular than it was before the election.”
The Economist says: “How the BNP climbs back into contention will remain unclear for some time. Out of parliament, its politicians rely on thugs for personal protection that was once provided by the state.”
Flanked by advisers who were once close to her husband, Khaleda insists that boycotting the general election was the right thing to do. “She suggests that party reform is in the works and that her son, [Senior Vice-Chairman] Tarique Rahman, in exile in London, will make a political comeback.”
Khaleda declares that she is not interested in revenge – unlike “that lady,” says the report.
Although Tarique’s return would inject some younger blood into the party, his elevation would divide the BNP at home and isolate it abroad, says the report. Citing a US embassy cable published by WikiLeaks, it says: “Much of what is wrong in Bangladesh can be blamed on Tarique and his cronies.”
However, Tarique’s defenders claim that the corruption of which he is widely accused was in fact carried out by those who abused their connections with him.
Regarding ties of some countries with the Hasina government after the January 5 election, the report says: “Not relishing a return of the BNP’s mother-son duo – which, among other things, turned a blind eye to the Islamist fringe – foreign governments are content to do business with Sheikh Hasina.
“India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has nothing like the close ties with Sheikh Hasina that were forged by the Gandhi dynasts of the country’s recently defeated Congress party. Still, he is keen for relations with Bangladesh to be solid, emphasising economic ties and a common front against Islamist militants.
“China has submitted an open-ended offer of aid so long as it gets a seaport. Japan has just pledged $6bn in loans. Russia and Bangladesh are conducting a feasibility study for two nuclear power plants – though doubts exist about whether they will ever be built. Foreigners have put in bids to launch a Bangladeshi satellite, to be named after the prime minister’s father and the country’s founding president, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.”
To conclude, the report says: “All, in other words, is set fair for Sheikh Hasina, despite a deeply flawed election. Without an effective opposition, she is under little pressure. Only if the prime minister feels that winning a third straight term in 2019 looks unlikely might she call an early poll in the hope of prolonging her dynasty’s rule. One begum is winning the endless battle – for the time being.”
