Just a year ago, Egypt’s liberals and pro-democracy youth movements were demanding the military, which took over from the ousted Hosni Mubarak, leave power. But after a tumultuous year under a freely elected Islamist president, many of them are hoping for the army’s protection as they try to force out Mohammed Morsi with protests this weekend.
Morsi’s opponents calculate they can push him to go through the sheer number of people they bring into the streets Sunday — building on widespread discontent with his running of the country — plus the added weight of the army’s backing.
After that, they believe that the Islamists have misruled so badly that a new election would yield a different result.
Morsi’s backers, in turn, say the mainly liberal and secular political opposition is fomenting a coup to remove an elected leader because they can’t compete at the ballot box.
Central to whatever happens on June 30 — the anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration — is the stance of the military.
Last Sunday, Egypt’s army chief gave the president and the opposition a week to reach an understanding to prevent bloodshed and warned it would intervene to stop the nation from entering a “dark tunnel.”
General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi also gave a thinly veiled warning to Morsi’s backers that the military will step in if the protesters are attacked during the planned protests, as some hard-liners have threatened.
In the days since, there has been no movement towards a resolution. Morsi has given no sign of making any concessions. He invited all sides to a meeting Wednesday, when he plans a national address. The opposition in turn rejects talks, saying they come “extremely late.” It is boycotting the meeting, saying it is not serious, and will only join a dialogue if el-Sissi convenes it — a sign of how it sees him as the only reliable arbiter.
“There is just no time left. It is too late and anything the president tries to do now will in reality be an attempt to discourage people from coming out on Sunday. We have no confidence in the president,” said Khaled Dawoud, the spokesman for the National Salvation Front, the main opposition grouping.
In his comments, el-Sissi said the two sides must reach a “genuine” reconciliation, seeming to acknowledge the opposition’s argument that Morsi’s past calls for dialogue were empty gestures.
The opposition has laid out a post-Morsi road map that would have the chief justice of the supreme constitutional court step in as interim president, a non-partisan figure as prime minister heading a small cabinet of technocrats, an expert panel to amend the Islamist-backed constitution and new presidential elections six months later.
How to get to that point is less clear.
If the protesters are attacked by hardcore Morsi supporters and the army sides with the protesters, it would add significant pressure on the president. At the least, the army is likely to deploy to protect vital institutions like the state television, parliament, the cabinet, and the media complex that houses a multitude of television networks, some critical of Morsi.
The opposition seems confident it can have army intervention without the generals actually taking power like they did after Mubarak’s fall.
“Unlike last time in 2011, the military will not intervene to rule but to protect a people against a regime that is no longer wanted,” said Ammar Ali Hassan, a prominent analyst and author. “There seems to be agreement by the military over the road map charted by the protest movement.”
Morsi’s office has depicted his comments as a sign of support for the president’s “legitimacy.”
Presidential spokesman Omar Amer underlined to reporters that Morsi is supreme commander of the armed forces and said “there is complete agreement and coordination” between him and el-Sissi.
Another Morsi spokesman, IhabFahmy, said el-Sissi’s comments were made in coordination with the presidency and “were intended to defuse tension.”
But some of Morsi’s Islamist backers saw el-Sissi’s statement as a slap and were furious.
