
Uttar Pradesh election results are usually a good indicator of how all of India will vote in the 2019 general elections, something akin to Ohio’s status in the general elections of the United States.
Despite an Indian Supreme Court ruling prohibiting the use of religion, caste or language to solicit votes and communal politics, UP candidates regularly use caste and religion as a political ploy to gain support.
As India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh holds 80 of the 540 seats at the Lok Sabha.
The elections began on Saturday and will continue until March 8, reports NDTV.
For the ruling BJP, the election results in UP will determine if Modi’s demonetisation drive will negatively impact the chances of his reelection in 2019.
The poll is a crucial test for incumbent Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, president of Samajwadi Party.
For Mayawati, it is an opportunity to be five-time Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, in a bid to revive her party image after failing to get a single seat in the 2014 Union elections. Former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee recently said: “BJP’s road back to power lies in the results of the elections in India’s most populous state.”
Since the birth of India, 8 of its 14 prime ministers has come from the state.
Uttar Pradesh has become the focus of interest as the state is the major communal battleground and base of the Indian political scene.
As per the 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of the population of the state. The Mallah community is divided into 27 sub-castes. Other castes (OBCs) constitute 40% of the state where the Yadavs are biggest grouping among OBCs. There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs in UP.
Muslims constitute 19.3% of the population while forward castes constitute around 19%. Brahmins are 10% and Thakurs are 7.6%.
The large Muslim electorate are often described as pawns on the political chessboard of the state.
On January 4, the Election Commission of India announced an election schedule for the legislative assemblies of Uttar Pradesh and other four states – Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand.
