Every time the shockwaves of a major earthquake in a nearby country hits Bangladesh, everyone – experts, media and general people – starts talking about how vulnerable the capital city is.
Based on a general perception that builders do not follow building codes while erecting high-rise structures, everyone suddenly feels scared about what might happen if they are hit by a bigger jolt.
But the shocking truth is that none of the relevant authorities in the country – neither the Public Works and Housing Ministry nor the Disaster Management Ministry nor the city development authority Rajuk – knows exactly where to begin.
While the Disaster Management Ministry says there are as many as 72,000 risky buildings in the city, Rajuk says there are only 321.
When the Disaster Management Ministry asks for identifying and demolishing those 72,000 buildings, the Public Works Ministry does not take any actions terming the number “impractical.”
The figure 72,000 too is more than half a decade old. It came up in a 2008-09 survey conducted by the Disaster Management Ministry.
That survey too does not give any specific data on exactly which buildings are vulnerable and which are not. Moreover, because the survey was conducted seven years ago, the number of buildings has also increased.
Prof ASM Maksud Kamal, supervisor of that research and teacher of geology at Dhaka University, said: “There were 326,000 buildings in the Dhaka city corporation area at that time [2008-09]. We divided the city’s 91 wards into 535 clusters.
“Then we took 20-22 buildings as samples from a few of those clusters and tried to find out what might happen in case there was a 7.5 magnitude earthquake at Tangail’s Modhupur [where there is a major fault]. We measured the extent of damage that it might cause and concluded that an average 72,000 buildings were vulnerable.
“However, we did not identify every vulnerable buildings in the city,” Prof Maksud told the Dhaka Tribune.
After the shockwaves of a 6.7-magnitude quake in India’s Manipur jolted Bangladesh last week, Disaster Management Minister Mofazzal Hossain Chowdhury said: “We had put black and red marks on the 72,000 buildings in Dhaka that were identified as vulnerable to earthquake.”
Earlier, a month after the catastrophic earthquake in Nepal in April last year – seven years after the survey was conducted – the Disaster Management Ministry wrote to the Public Works ministry asking for addressing the vulnerable buildings issue.
Minister Mofazzal recently said: “We submitted the report [of the survey] to the Housing and Public Works Ministry and asked them to take steps to demolish the risky buildings. But they have so far not done anything in this regard.”
But, when contacted, Public Works Minister Mosarraf Hossain told the Dhaka Tribune that they had not received any such letters.
He also said: “It is not quite practical that 72,000 buildings are vulnerable.”
Apart from the city development authority Rajuk – one of whose functions is to approve building plans – which is a wing of the Public Works Ministry, other government bodies such as the city corporation and the Fire Service and Civil Defence also have their own estimates on the number of vulnerable buildings.
According to city corporation authorities, there were about 500 risky buildings in the city in 2004 while fire service sys there are around 2,000 several years ago.
Emdadul Islam, former chief engineer of Rajuk, said: “We identified 321 risky buildings in the capital. However, our survey did not follow any scientific method. The survey was conducted on some selected old buildings. We measured their strengths.”
Sirajul Islam, a planner at the Dhaka South City Corporation, said that their survey too was conducted on a selection of buildings. “We considered only those buildings which were made without proper foundations.”
These are pretty much all the latest data that is available on the number of risky buildings in the city, which is one of the most densely populated in the world.
Interestingly, Rajuk does not have any recent data on the exact number of buildings in the city at present. They have a combined data for Dhaka city and some of the adjacent areas such as Narayanganj – which is around one million – but nothing only on the capital city.
Expert opinions
Asked whether there were any short-term ways out, SM Mahbubul Ameen, former head of the Geological Sciences department at Jahangirnagar University, said: “It is not possible in a short term to bring every building in the city under a survey.”
He suggested: “The authorities can start with the visibly risky buildings and those erected in breach of building codes. This can be done in the first phase.
“In the second phase, the strength of the rest of the buildings in the city can be examined. This survey could be conducted jointly by Rajuk, city corporation, fire service and the Army.”
How much time will this require? Prof Mahbubul Ameen said: “It is hard to tell. Since the city is already divided into clusters, the authorities can first see how much time is needed to cover all the buildings in one cluster. Then a time estimate can be given.”
Prof Golam Moinuddin, from the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Jahangirnagar University, said preparing a comprehensive database on the vulnerable buildings in the country will be time consuming.
“However, what we can do primarily is acquiring hi-tech equipment to measure the strength of buildings – something that is done around the world. The authorities can also think about strengthening or repairing the weaker buildings,” Prof Moiuddin said.
There are already forecasts that a strong earthquake might hit the country anytime soon and if that happens, the capital city might be worst victim.
