The country’s exports, imports, remittance and foreign exchange reserves will increase in the last quarter of the current fiscal year if the peaceful political situation continues, said a leading business chamber.
It said the foreign exchange reserves will rise to record high of US$25.5bn by the end of the fiscal, which has already exceeded $24bn in April.
Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry released the forecasts yesterday in it its review on economic situation of Bangladesh in January-March period of FY2014-15.
Reviewing the past nine months’ growth trends, the MCCI made the projections.
It said the rate of inflation can be expected to fall in April and May as the supply situation is very likely to get improved with a relatively calm political environment.
However, the inflation may rise due to increase in demands during the month of Ramadan fasting.
According to June forecasts, exports figure will be $2.80bn, imports $3.7bn, remittance $1.6bn, foreign exchange reserves $25.5bn and inflation 6.25% for the month of June of the current fiscal year.
MCCI review said political violence in the third quarter disrupted economic activities and caused loss of lives and properties, but with extensive government and private sector efforts, the normalcy has been restored.
“Overall scenario is encouraging, although the slower export growth and slowing private sector investment remain a major challenge,” it said.
Shortfalls in revenue collection and weak annual development programme implementation are also worrying for the economy, it added.
The fall in fuel oil prices in the world market has given a fiscal space to the government, while the plummeting fuel oil prices in the international markets enable the government to slash it subsidy expenditure and enhance public allocation to priority sector of the economy, the chamber said.
But the political stability would be vital to ensure sustainability of the growth process, according to it.
MCCI said the continuous efforts of the government to accelerate power, energy and transport sector reforms would result in better environment for investment in future.
