Bangladesh may be heading toward a major seismic disaster if long-stored tectonic energy is released, leading earthquake and geography experts have warned. Their concerns intensified after Friday’s moderate quake, which shook large parts of the country.
A 5.5–5.7 magnitude earthquake, with its epicenter in Madhabdi, Narsingdi, jolted Dhaka and several other districts at 10:38am on Friday.
The tremor was described as one of the strongest in recent years by Professor Humayun Akhter, eminent seismologist and former faculty member of the University of Dhaka’s Department of Geology.
Possibility of an 8.2–9.0 magnitude quake
“Today’s (Friday’s) tremor was one of the most intense in recent times,” said Prof Humayun Akhter.
“Active tectonic stress beneath the country has been accumulating for centuries. A major release could trigger a devastating earthquake,” he added.
He noted that the last major rupture along the India–Burma plate boundary occurred 800–1,000 years ago. The segment has been locked since then, storing immense energy.
“If that locked energy is released in a single event, the magnitude could range between 8.2 and 9, affecting large parts of South Asia,” he warned.
Bangladesh positioned over three active plates
Experts say Bangladesh sits at the junction of three tectonic plates:
- Eurasian Plate
- Indo–Australian Plate
- Burma Microplate
These plates move an average of 50mm per year, causing pressure to build along the boundaries. The Sylhet–Chittagong belt is now identified as a “locked zone,” where stored energy is sufficient to generate a 7–9 magnitude earthquake.
Recent studies at the University of Dhaka indicate that an 8.2–9.0 magnitude event is geologically overdue in this region.
Dozens of quakes in a year
Bangladesh recorded nearly a dozen small to moderate earthquakes over the last year. Several originated near the Madhupur Fault, Dohar, Ramganj, Manikganj, Chandpur, and Mymensingh, raising concerns about growing instability.
Historically, catastrophic quakes—such as the 1762 Arakan (Assam) earthquake that altered the Brahmaputra River’s course—occurred in similar tectonic settings.
Scientists warn that Bangladesh’s geology is capable of producing earthquakes of comparable magnitude.
‘Active fault running through Madhabdi–Ghorashal’
Geographers have highlighted the significance of Friday’s epicenter.
Located near Bangladesh’s northeastern tectonic boundary, the region marks the zone where the Indian Plate is subducting beneath the Burma Microplate.
Professor Dr Shahedur Rashid, geographer at Jahangirnagar University, said: “The Indo–Burma plate system appears increasingly active. A series of mild to moderate quakes in recent months could be a precursor to a larger event.”
He added that an active fault line runs through Madhabdi–Ghorashal–Belabo, capable of generating moderate quakes. The frequency of tremors suggests that stress accumulation is ongoing, making a larger seismic event “scientifically plausible.”
Why a major disaster could be fatal for Dhaka
Experts warn that the capital faces disproportionate risk due to four primary factors:
- Soft, unstable soil
- Construction on filled wetlands
- Unregulated high-rise development
- Widespread violations of the Bangladesh National Building Code, 2020
They argue that even a moderate earthquake could cause severe devastation.
Prof. Humayun Akhter cautioned: “Today’s earthquake may be a warning of something larger. With centuries of accumulated energy beneath us, preparedness is the only path forward.”
Immediate actions needed
According to seismic experts, Bangladesh must immediately:
- Conduct structural safety assessments of all major buildings
- Enforce the National Building Code without compromise
- Identify and demolish risky or defective structures
- Strengthen public awareness and emergency preparedness
- Ensure all new buildings follow earthquake-resistant designs
- Increase drills, response training, and rescue capacity
As seismic activity rises across the Indo–Burma region, scientists stress that Bangladesh must act urgently to prevent a natural hazard from turning into a national catastrophe.
