The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) continues to lead in public voting intentions, while Jamaat-e-Islami maintains steady support and the Awami League shows signs of recovery, according to the second round of the People’s Election Pulse Survey (PEPS).
The nationwide survey, conducted by INNOVISION in September across all eight divisions, found that 41.3% of respondents said they would vote for BNP if elections were held today.
Jamaat secured 30.3%, while Awami League registered 18.8%, marking a modest increase from the first round of the survey in March.
The National Citizen’s Party (NCP), a much-talked-about entity born from the July 2024 uprising, has seen its popularity wane.
After the first round of the survey in March showed 5.10% of voters intended to vote it, the latest data from September reveals a decline to 4.10%, indicating a loss of momentum over a six-month period.
The data reveals a geographically fractured political map, with each major party drawing its strongest support from different regions.
The BNP finds its highest backing in Khulna (43.3%) and Mymensingh (45.7%), consolidating its position as the leading choice in these divisions.
Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, dominates in Rangpur (43.4%) and Rajshahi (40.9%), where it surpasses the BNP to emerge as the frontrunner.
The Awami League’s support is most concentrated in Barisal (31.9%) and Dhaka (25.8%), though it faces significant challenges in Rajshahi, where its share drops to just 9.2%.
A clear generational divide is also evident.
Support for the BNP increases with age, from 34.3% among Gen Z to 48.6% among those aged 61 and above.
Conversely, Jamaat-e-Islami draws its strongest support from the youth - 32.8% among Gen Z.
‘What If’ scenario
The survey also explored a scenario in which the Awami League does not participate in the election.
In this case, the BNP is the primary beneficiary, capturing 45.6% of the vote, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami at 33.5%.
Notably, 8.3% of voters said they would not cast a ballot under these circumstances.
Despite the increased openness, a substantial bloc remains in flux.
Overall, 32.6% of respondents have not yet decided who to vote for, and 9.6% refused to say if they had decided, indicating that a significant portion of the electorate is still up for grabs.
Suitable party to form govt
The PEPS Round 2 found that the BNP is viewed by the largest share of respondents as the most suitable party to form the next government.
According to the survey, 39.1% of respondents identified BNP as the best positioned to govern, compared to 28.1% for Jamaat-e-Islami and 17.7% for the Awami League.
Other parties, including the Nationalist Citizens’ Party (NCP), received marginal support.
Age-based analysis revealed notable generational divides in perceptions of party suitability.
Younger respondents, particularly those in the 18–28 age bracket, were more inclined to support BNP, reflecting its appeal among first-time and younger voters.
Jamaat’s support was strongest among middle-aged respondents, especially in the 29–44 and 45–60 brackets, while Awami League’s suitability ratings were comparatively higher among older age groups.
When asked which party has a good chance of forming the next government, BNP again emerged as the frontrunner.
40% of respondents said BNP is most likely to return to power, up significantly from 29% in Round 1 of the survey.
Jamaat also gained ground, with a growing share of respondents seeing it as a viable contender.
Awami League, while still trailing, showed modest improvement compared to earlier results, suggesting that despite its challenges, it remains a factor in the electoral equation.
Likelihood of forming govt
The comparative analysis between Round 1 and Round 2 of the PEPS survey shows a clear upward trajectory for BNP.
Its perceived likelihood of forming the next government rose by more than 10 percentage points, consolidating its position as the leading contender.
Jamaat also registered gains, particularly in northern divisions, while Awami League’s slight recovery indicates that it has not been entirely written off by the electorate.
Generational breakdowns further illustrate the dynamics of political expectations.
Younger respondents overwhelmingly identified BNP as the party most likely to form the next government, reflecting both enthusiasm and momentum among youth voters.
Middle-aged groups showed a more balanced distribution between BNP and Jamaat, while older respondents were more likely to see Awami League as a potential governing party, despite its overall weaker standing.
