Tarique Rahman is now in a “ruling” position, with his stance strong, the chairman of a political party sympathetic to the BNP has said.
“In the context of the interim government, he is sustaining his position. Tarique Rahman also means the BNP, and the BNP's position is stable, though it has not started negotiations yet,” the politician told this correspondent on Tuesday.
He said the BNP should focus more on ensuring acting chairman Tarique’s potential position and influence in future national leadership.
“It is still unclear whether the BNP or Tarique Rahman has begun negotiations in the way that the Awami League did during the 1/11 political crisis.”
Even within the BNP, discussions are ongoing regarding the party's future position and Tarique’s leadership role.
Notably, while Tarique has addressed grassroots leaders during Ramadan iftar events in the past, he has refrained from doing so this year.
Mahmudur Rahman Manna, president of the Nagorik Oikko, said the BNP had not yet formally discussed this matter.
"Bangladesh’s future rests in the hands of the BNP and Tarique Rahman. From a political standpoint, he is certainly trying from a distance, but many party followers are beyond control. If he can manage the party and its activists effectively, change will come to the country," Manna said.
However, he noted that the BNP had yet to initiate any dialogue regarding the upcoming election.
Senior Ganatantra Mancha leaders also said there had been no substantial discussions between the BNP and its allied parties since the August 5 government transition.
While sporadic contacts existed at high levels, no comprehensive strategy discussions had taken place, they added.
Internal debates
Within the BNP, senior leaders are debating the party’s ideological positioning.
One senior leader said the BNP had not yet made it clear whether it would take a centrist or Islamist stance.
Sources within the party’s standing committee claimed that the BNP's top leadership was moving forward with several alternatives in preparation for the election.
Although publicly critical of the newly formed student-led National Citizen Party (NCP), many standing committee and central committee members were privately maintaining close communication with them, they added.
One source said it would not be surprising if the party wanted to see divisions within the new party.
When several members of the standing committee were asked about this, they declined to be quoted by name, with some saying that the BNP's electoral strategy was still unclear.
The question also remains whether the party will align with the Jamaat again.
BNP Standing Committee member Begum Selima Rahman said the BNP had not yet held any discussions in this regard as there was still a lot of time left till the election. “It will not take long to discuss the election. We will sit for discussions at the right time.”
When asked when that might be, Selima Rahman responded: “I cannot confirm that yet. Let Ramadan pass. We are considering when and how to prepare.”
Meanwhile, Mohammed Mojibur Rahman Bhuiyan Monju, chairman of the Amar Bangladesh Party, said that while the BNP was interested in reforms, its primary focus was on the quick holding of the election.
“On the other hand, the newly formed student-led political party, the NCP, is prioritizing the trial of fascists and reforms rather than immediate elections,” he added.
According to the AB Party chairman, although the two parties appear to have differing demands, there are behind-the-scenes discussions between them regarding elections. “Over time, the situation will become clearer.”
“It remains to be seen how much progress the National Consensus Commission makes. I believe the BNP will keep both pressure and negotiation options open,” Monju said.
Several BNP analysts said they believed the party was yet to grasp the core issue.
Every sector of society was now active, political and state machinery included, they noted, adding that they felt this growing activity was becoming one-sided.
A high-ranking BNP official emphasized that Tarique Rahman must make national decisions before the “politically ambitious faction benefiting from government patronage” took centre stage.
According to another senior BNP leader, all political parties are still relying on Tarique Rahman’s role.
They said the election, government formation and the transformation of promises into commitments – including making the BNP’s 31-point agenda more visible – could mark the beginning of change.
Seat distribution
Several BNP sources said discussions on contesting all 300 parliamentary seats had already begun at various levels, calling them part of a strategy.
They added that the BNP's electoral stance would largely depend on Tarique’s seat allocation decisions.
A BNP leader told this correspondent: “Every party assumes it will field candidates in all constituencies. Each one of them thinks if they take part, they will win. If everyone runs separately, the BNP will get the maximum benefits.
“However, if the government engineers a controlled election, that is another matter. The key question is whether the BNP will aim for a landslide victory and form the government alone or ensure parliamentary representation for other parties, thereby strengthening parliamentary democracy. This depends on Tarique Rahman.”
This leader said he believed seat-based negotiations should begin now.
“Realistically, securing at least 80 seats by distributing them among allies and new candidates would increase the chances of a competitive election. At the same time, international powers still have little interest in seeing the BNP in power. Thus, seat-sharing politics hinges on Tarique Rahman as the popular leader of a popular party.”
The influential BNP leader added: “At least 40 seats could be left open for independent candidates, fostering competition. Meanwhile, the key electoral campaign will start based on how the Awami League, ousted from power on August 5, strategizes its comeback. The BNP's seat-sharing strategy will determine how that party participates in the electoral process.”
One party, Khelafat Majlis, said there had been no seat-based electoral discussion with his party and the BNP yet.
“However, we are discussing forming an all-party government based on the BNP’s 31-point agenda. No specific discussions on an election roadmap have taken place. Also, the Khelafat Majlis has not yet decided on its electoral stance,” its joint secretary general, Maulana Ataullah Amin, added.
Jamaat ambitious
Jamaat-e-Islami Secretary General Prof Mia Golam Parwar said his party was prepared to contest all 300 seats, adding that its candidates were ready.
However, he acknowledged that as elections drew near, political polarization would occur. If Islamist parties forged unity for the election, the Jamaat would consider a collective approach, Parwar said.
“When discussions about alliances or negotiations arise, we will have to make seat adjustments. We are also prepared to leave seats for different parties.”
When will Tarique return?
Tarique is expected to return to Bangladesh from London around the time of the election schedule announcement.
His return could happen before or after the announcement, possibly in a grand manner. His mother, former prime minister and BNP chief Khaleda Zia, may accompany him.
However, top BNP leaders have remained silent on this matter, and several standing committee members declined to be quoted when asked about this issue.
One source did inform this reporter that Khaleda Zia might return to the country in April. However, there is no concrete evidence to confirm this information.
BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir had previously spoken about Tarique’s return. However, when contacted for an update, he was unavailable for comment.
Notably, on March 4, at an iftar event in the UK, BNP Standing Committee Member Dr AZM Zahid Hossain said Tarique would return to the country before the general election.
