Bangladesh's heavy reliance on fossil fuel and LNG expansion will worsen the heat stress in the country, as highlighted in the recently published report by Zero Carbon Analytics.
The report highlighted that the global development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is set to increase by 173%, which poses a serious threat to the climate goals set by the Paris Agreement, reads a press release issued on Thursday.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the continued use of fossil fuel infrastructure, both existing and planned, without emission reduction measures would result in a global temperature increase of over 1.5°C, significantly above the target set by the Paris Agreement, unless they are phased out early.
This highlights the dire future of rising heat stress in the countries and the urgent need for immediate and drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent catastrophic climate change.
The economic risks
Bangladesh's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels for its energy development poses significant economic risks.
Bangladesh faces an important debt bill of $2 billion yearly from its mega fossil fuel projects.
Undated photo shows a top view of Moheshkhali Floating LNG Terminal in the Bay of Bengal CollectedThe country's plans to invest $16.5 billion in new gas infrastructure, including LNG terminals, pipelines, and power plants, raises concerns about its large and unsustainable debt burden.
Hence, continuing to pivot towards gas could result in poor investments and the wastage of valuable capital.
At the same time, infrastructures become stranded assets, leading to broader and more severe socio-economic problems for Bangladesh.
Climate Threat
The report highlighted that increased use of fossil fuel and LNG poses a grave threat to the climate, contributing significantly to the acceleration of global warming.
The extraction and transportation of gas releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas responsible for a quarter of the warming already experienced by the world.
Moreover, the energy required to super-cool the gas for transportation as LNG is emissions intensive, equivalent to almost nine coal power stations in the US alone.
Extreme weather events and climate migration
The continued expansion of LNG exports and fossil fuel infrastructure threatens to push the world past the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, leading to more severe and frequent extreme weather events in countries like Bangladesh.
Bangladesh stands on the front line of climate change, facing significant vulnerability and a looming threat to its population—over 90 million people living in areas with high exposure to climate change.
Syed Zakir Hossain/Dhaka TribuneThe country experienced 185 extreme weather events due to climate change between 2000 and 2019.
World Health Organization reports that over 7.1 million Bangladeshis were displaced by climate change in 2022 alone.
Heatwaves and their impact on mortality
Heatwaves are becoming an increasingly serious concern in Bangladesh. The country is predicted to experience more frequent and severe heatwaves, which have been shown to increase mortality rates by as much as 31.3% for every 1°C increase in the universal thermal climate index.
These events can have devastating impacts on both individuals and the economy.
Temperature rise has been linked to increased mortality rates, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with underlying health conditions.
File Photo UNBFurthermore, those exposed to heat stress can suffer from respiratory problems, leading to reduced productivity, increased absenteeism and long-term health issues.
Additionally, vulnerable communities often face economic impacts from heat stress, such as lost wages from illness or decreased productivity.
Low-income households, in particular, may face challenges in affording cooling measures or living in housing with inadequate ventilation, which can further exacerbate the risk of heat-related illness.
The psychological impact
The report also highlights the psychological impacts of heat, revealing a link between elevated temperatures and mental health-related morbidity and mortality.
Vulnerability to mental health impacts is particularly acute for older populations, women, individuals with physical disabilities or illnesses, and households experiencing economic shocks.
Risks to health, well-being and labour loss
The warming planet will also increase the health and well-being risks associated with working in hot and humid conditions.
Workers exposed to heat stress are at risk of various health impacts, including dehydration, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and other heat-related illnesses.
Mahmud Hossain Opu/Dhaka TribuneThe report identifies Bangladesh as one of the South Asian countries that faces a high risk of lost working hours due to heat stress.
At present temperatures, the country loses 254 hours of labour per person annually due to heat exposure.
This figure increases significantly to 573 hours of labour loss per person annually if the temperature rises by 2°C.
The toll of medical care and preventive measures on GDP
The costs of providing medical care and preventative measures to reduce heat stress can be significant.
By 2030, heat stress could have a similar impact on GDP in Thailand, Cambodia, India, and Pakistan.
Bangladesh is projected to lose around 4.9% of its GDP to heat stress by 2030 – a potential loss of USD95.75 billion.
BigstockThe significant impact of these losses on the country's population and economy underscores the urgency of implementing measures to mitigate the effects of extreme heat on working conditions and productivity.
These impacts are set to get worse as the climate warms.
The IPCC science is clear that the world needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avert the worst impacts of climate change, and an immediate and rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuel and gas is required to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
Policy change advocacy
The report calls to reduce the country's reliance on fossil fuels and LNG, which contributing to climate change and exacerbate heat stress.
Renewable energy represents a far better alternative to gas power generation and LNG imports, offering cheaper and more reliable energy sources.
To address this, Bangladesh must introduce significant policy changes and dramatically increase financing available for renewable energy projects.
Representational image BigstockWith the upcoming integrated energy and power master plan review, the country can learn from the global gas price crisis and shift its focus towards rapidly scaling up wind and solar power.
The future of Bangladesh's energy sector lies in renewables, and the country must take immediate action to make this a reality.
