Bangladesh is slated to become the 20th largest economy in the world out of 191 countries by the year 2037, according to a London-based think tank.
A London-based think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) made the projection that was disclosed recently.
The latest findings were disclosed in CEBR's annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2023) report that cited Bangladesh as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world for more than a decade.
As per CEBR, Bangladesh's long-term outlook looks promising based on its macroeconomic stability, strong remittance flows and robust export market.
According to the report, Bangladesh is currently the second largest economy in the region and will continue to sustain it till 2037 with a GDP size of $1,628 billion at current prices (currently $429 billion).
Bangladesh has been classified as a lower middle-income country for 2022 by the CERB, which lauded the government's efforts in ensuring a low debt-to-GDP ratio while operating a 5.1% fiscal deficit in 2022.
The think-tank also concluded that strong macroeconomic fundamentals, infrastructure improvements and enhanced digitalisation have enabled the country to move towards post-pandemic recovery.
The output growth in fiscal 2020-21 was estimated to stand at 6.9%, after which growth is expected to have accelerated to 7.2% in the 2021-22 fiscal year (FY).
The CEBR expects an average growth rate of 6.4% between the FY2022-23 and FY2026-27, citing Bangladesh's strong and consistent growth to be credited to strong remittance flows and a robust export market and both factors are expected to play a significant role in the economy's growth moving forwards.
However, Bangladesh might face multiple hurdles while achieving a medium to long-term outlook, the report stated, citing the country's GDP in the FY2021-22 period, which saw inflation rising due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As per the findings, high inflation has been identified to be a downside risk for Bangladesh, not least due to the fact that it leads to a higher current account deficit, in light of elevated commodity prices.
The paper suggests strong foreign direct investment from both India and China to help accelerate such developments in response to the risk factors.
Additionally, Bangladesh has also been forecasted to rank 35th in 2023 and 26th in 2027, reaching 20th rank by the year 2037, as per the findings, depicting economic growth during the current decade and even the next one.
Earlier in 2021, the think-tank predicted Bangladesh would become the 24th largest economy by 2036.
In contrast, the country has previously held 57th, 58th, and 42nd ranks in 2007, 2012 and 2017 respectively, representing its consistency in economic growth.
When compared to other economies within the South Asia region, Pakistan (43rd) holds the 3rd position followed by Sri Lanka (75th), Nepal (101st), the Maldives (152nd) and Bhutan (164th) in South Asia.
Meanwhile, neighbouring country India, which has been holding the top position in the South Asian region since the first edition of the report which came out in 2009, has been forecasted to become the 3rd $10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world's third-largest by 2032.
The US (1st), China (2nd) and Japan (3rd) are currently the top three economies in the world and it is forecasted that China is now not set to overtake the US as the world's largest economy until 2036 at the earliest — six years later than expected — due to the country's zero Covid policy and rising trade tensions with the West.
