Eight years ago, after President Xi Jinping took the reins of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), he initiated one of the most significant overhauls in the world's largest military force's history. This overhaul, which began in 2015, aimed to shift China's military structure away from its Soviet-style, army-centric model and towards one more adaptable for joint operations, akin to the US military.
Over the past eight years, President Xi has undertaken a massive anti-corruption campaign, completely restructured the military's command system, and significantly upgraded China's military technology across all branches.
This transformation has propelled the PLA's capabilities at such a pace that some American defense officials believe Beijing could be ready to take Taiwan by force as early as 2027, despite deterrence and Western warnings.
Challenges for the PLA's modernization
While the PLA's modernization overhaul has achieved substantial successes over the past eight years, defense experts emphasize that uncertainties remain regarding its ability to adapt to the changing landscape of modern warfare and, more significantly, its readiness for its most significant challenge: Taiwan.
"It's too early to conclude whether the PLA's modernization efforts are working or not," says Ni Lexiong, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. "The realities unfolding on the Ukraine battlefield have overturned many military doctrines and judgments we learned from previous conventional wars, such as the Gulf War in the 1990s."
As part of this modernization, the PLA restructured its seven military regions into five theater commands, aiming to streamline troop numbers from 300,000 to 2 million. Additionally, the PLA's four independent "military kingdoms" were dissolved, and their powers were distributed across 15 smaller units under the Central Military Commission (CMC).
Xi's ambitious modernization plan
President Xi's vision for the PLA's future includes achieving full modernization comparable to the US military in the Pacific by 2027, coinciding with the centenary of the PLA's founding. Furthermore, he aspires for the army to "basically complete" its modernization by 2035 and to become a "world-class" military by 2049, marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party's rise to power. To achieve this, the PLA is planning to operate at least four active aircraft carrier strike groups by 2035. China has already built three aircraft carriers, with a fourth, equipped with advanced electromagnetic launch systems, undergoing sea trials soon.
Focus on integration of hardware and software
China's rapid economic development has also provided the PLA with a steady increase in the annual defense budget. However, military observer Antony Wong Tong emphasizes that the effectiveness of new warships and high-tech equipment will rely on having well-trained engineering corps to operate them effectively.
Tong notes that modern warfare is evolving rapidly, with the roles of heavy equipment in air and naval battles changing significantly. Recent conflicts have shown that hi-tech superiority can easily trap and neutralize advanced weapons.
China is aware that the Ukrainian conflict and other modern warfare scenarios are challenging conventional military doctrines. The PLA has observed a shift in fighting patterns in prolonged conflicts, leading to a rethink of strategies and tactics.
Uncertainty surrounding future warfare
While the PLA's modernization overhaul has made significant progress, uncertainties loom about the nature of future warfare. Ni points out that real war is the best test of military reshuffles, as theories and weapons are just pieces of metal until tested in actual combat.
Therefore, the PLA's readiness to adapt to an ever-changing battlefield, particularly when it comes to Taiwan, remains a critical question. In this context, the constant military drills around Taiwan, and the international response to these, provide a key indicator of how the PLA would engage in an actual conflict.
The future reunification of Taiwan is a central component of President Xi's vision for China's "national rejuvenation," which serves as a driving force behind the PLA's modernization.
