With the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party securing 240 seats in this year’s Lok Sabha election in India and falling short of an outright majority, focus has shifted towards two veteran politicians – Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and former Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu – both of whom have a habit of shifting alliances.
It is becoming increasingly clear that without the support of their parties – Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party – the BJP cannot form a government, which has raised their political importance overnight. Speculation is rife about whether they will ultimately support the BJP or switch sides.
Kumar and Naidu have both parted ways with and rejoined the BJP so often that even political observers have lost track.
Both JD(U) and the TDP contested this Lok Sabha election as part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Seat-sharing agreements were also made between the BJP and JD(U) and the TDP in their respective states. However, this does not mean that these two parties are obliged to support the BJP following the announcement of the election results.
Modi, allies to meet after humbling election verdictAlliances formed before voting have no legal obligation to remain in that state post-election. Depending on the circumstances, for example, any party from the NDA can join the opposing INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc now that the results have been announced, or the reverse can easily happen as well. It is sufficient for them to inform the president in writing about which party or alliance they support.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will now have to depend on disparate regional parties, including the aforementioned two, whose political loyalties have wavered over the years.
Modi was set to meet his allies on Wednesday to discuss forming the government.
The BJP won 240 seats on its own in the general election, 32 short of the halfway mark in the 543-member decision-making lower house. Meanwhile, the NDA led by the BJP won 293 seats, more than 20 ahead of the 272 needed to form a government.
Significance of JD(U) and TDP
Now let us take a look at the seat count for JD(U) and the TDP. Kumar’s party won 12 seats in Bihar while Naidu’s party secured 16 seats in Andhra Pradesh, with the two together holding 28 seats. With the support of these two leaders, the BJP can easily form a government for the third consecutive time.
Additionally, if the BJP has the support of a few smaller ally parties such as Chirag Paswan's Lok Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (five seats), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (seven) and Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal (two), the resulting government will undoubtedly be even stronger.
However, there is no doubt that the key to forming a government will remain with Naidu and Kumar.
Chandrababu Naidu's political career shows that he has a long history of playing political games with the BJP, since the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee's prime ministership. In exchange for supporting Vajpayee's BJP government, he secured a series of advantages, and at a certain point he did not hesitate to part ways with the party.
Modi declares victory in India electionAt 74 years old, Naidu is almost the same age as Modi. He is the son-in-law of the late NT Rama Rao, a prominent figure in Andhra Pradesh's film industry and a former chief minister of the state. However, he did not hesitate to break political alliances, even with his famous father-in-law, for the sake of becoming chief minister himself. At one point, Naidu was leading the "Third Front," which refers to alliances formed among smaller parties to offer a third option to Indian voters, then later joined the BJP camp.
Having left the BJP alliance for quite some time, Naidu joined hands with the party again just before the election, this time along with Telugu film actor Pawan Kalyan.
However, there is no guarantee that Naidu will continue to align with the BJP. At least, his track record suggests so.
Seventy-three-year-old Nitish Kumar's story mirrors a similar narrative. Since 2005, for the past eighteen years, he has been chief minister of Bihar. However, during this long period, there were times when his JD(U) had a majority in the Bihar Legislative Assembly and times when it did not. Nevertheless, he has adeptly managed situations, sometimes aligning with the BJP and at other times with parties like the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal. Over the past decade alone, he has allied with the BJP twice and joined forces with the Congress-RJD alliance the same number of times.
The final agreement between Kumar and the BJP came just a few months before the Lok Sabha election. However, the BJP's failure to secure an absolute majority means the fate of that agreement remains uncertain.
Possible scenarios
Political analysts are now discussing several possibilities. For instance, Kumar and Naidu could demand special economic packages worth billions of rupees for their respective states (Bihar and Andhra Pradesh) in exchange for their support to the BJP.
In another scenario, the BJP may feel compelled to offer both of them deputy prime ministerial positions, once held by political figures like Devi Lal or Lal Krishna Advani. Some observers even suggest that Naidu or Kumar could claim the prime ministerial position in exchange for supporting the BJP.
The opposition alliance, INDIA, could also try to pull them to its side from the BJP-led NDA.
Only Naidu and Kumar know what their ultimate move will be. But at this moment, both of them are under the spotlight, with the country of over 1.4 billion people closely watching their every move.
