Speculation has been rife that a secret pact is being negotiated between New Delhi and Naypyidaw to deport Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims as illegal migrants from India, fuelled by a remark of Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh.
Neither New Delhi nor Naypyidaw has, however, issued any official statement as yet in this regard.
Some 40,000 Rohingya Muslims have been living in Hindu-majority India, border forces of which have been authorised to use “chilli and stun grenades” to block the entry of Rohingya fleeing violence in Rakhine, where a coordinated attack by Rohingya insurgents on Myanmar’s security forces in late August triggered a counteroffensive, killing at least 400 people, according to Reuters.
Inaugurating a seminar organised by National Human Rights Commission of India on Thursday, Rajnath Singh said: “Many are voicing their objections against the deportation of Rohingya migrants, which is not comprehensible to me.
“The Myanmar government said they are agreed on taking them back. So, what is your problem if they are repatriated?”
The minister, however, did not mention when the Myanmar authorities said this and where. Referring to Myanmar's State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi in his speech, Rajnath said the country’s government had agreed to take the Rohingya back if they can produce their valid identity documents before the authorities concerned.
While it is known to all that very few Rohingya people can be found in possession of valid national identity cards, the remarks the minister made at the event have triggered a speculation that the two neighbouring countries already kicked off a negotiation behind the scenes to reach an agreement to repatriate the Rohingya.
Asked, a high-level official at the Indian Home Ministry said: “Some sort of discussion on the repatriation is going on. The Indian government on August 9 told parliament that they would send them back to Myanmar. We can assume that the government said this based on any discussions with Myanmar.”
Shedding further light on the possible agreement, he said: “How will the government be appearing and with what before the people during the forthcoming elections if it fails to repatriate them [Rohingya] even after the announcement to send them back?”
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Joyeeta Bhattacharjee, senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation, said there were sufficient reasons to speculate that discussions on the Rohingya crisis are going on between New Delhi and Naypyidaw.
“It is true that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Suu Kyi did not make any comment to the public on the Rohingya issue when they met a few days ago, but it is sheer unreasonable to believe they refrained from discussing such a big crisis,” she added.
“Rather, there are indications that New Delhi has been trying to reach a consensus with Naypyidaw on the repatriation,” Joyeeta also said.
A tenable reason to believe that an accord between the countries is in the offing is that the number of Rohingya Muslims in India is quite smaller compared with Bangladesh.
Only 40,000 Rohingya are living in India, while over half a million people from troubled Rakhine state fled to Bangladesh, where the crisis is even more intricate to deal with.
If Myanmar can win support from India to develop its infrastructures and embolden the military, then Naypyidaw may agree with New Delhi on the repatriation, diplomats think. But, it is true as well that the country may face international pressure to take its people back if the Rohingya are repatriated from India.
Former Indian ambassador to Myanmar VS Seshadri said he was not hopeful of a successful agreement right now on the repatriation.
It is difficult to say anything until Myanmar really accepts the Rohingya, he said, adding: “It has to be understood that the Myanmar army is still holding sway on Suu Kyi. She has to tread a fine line compromising with the army for sustainable democracy in her country.
“So, signing a deal on the deportation of Rohingya will not be an easy task as the Myanmar army is the vehement opponent of such measures.
Despite all these challenges, Home Minister Rajnath’s remarks in the event convey a signal that a secret pact between New Delhi and Naypyidaw is in the making.
This article was first published on Bangla Tribune
Monday, July 20, 2026
