The first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas will end Saturday without any certainty over the planned second phase, which is hoped to bring a more permanent end to the Gaza war.
The first, 42-day phase of the ceasefire agreement, which began on January 19, stipulated a pause in fighting and the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Analysts say that phase is likely to be extended because it is the preferred scenario for Israel, which has the upper hand in the conflict’s aftermath.
What will happen?
“One thing we can expect is that phase two won’t start tomorrow, but I think the ceasefire probably won’t collapse also,” Max Rodenbeck, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, told AFP Friday.
Egypt, which along with Qatar and the United States has been mediating peace efforts in Gaza, will host a new round of talks with the hopes of determining the future of the ceasefire.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday dispatched a delegation to Cairo, “to take forward negotiations to get our hostages home,” government spokesman David Mencer said.
The preferred Israeli scenario is to free more hostages under an extension of the ceasefire’s first phase, rather than a second phase, Defence Minister Israel Katz said Thursday.
Of the 251 hostages taken during Hamas’s October 7 resistance campaign, 58 hostages remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Amit Segal, an Israeli commentator close to Netanyahu in an interview this week said it was likely Israel would favour “prolonging the deal for yet another week.”
Hamas has on several occasions reiterated its “readiness to engage in negotiations for its second phase.”
On Friday, the group said it was not willing to extend the first phase.
A senior Hamas official told AFP that the Palestinian fighter group was prepared to release all remaining hostages in a single swap during the second phase.
“Hamas will not be happy to drag on phase one, but it doesn’t really have the capacity to force Israel to go on to phase two,” Rodenbeck told AFP.
Will fighting resume in Gaza?
The fragile ceasefire mostly halted fighting in war-ravaged Gaza throughout the first phase, save for a number of Israeli strikes and live fire on sites and Palestinians deemed a “threat” by the military.
“Even during the ceasefire, Hamas plotted attacks targeting soldiers and Israeli communities,” Katz said Thursday.
Hamas called the claim “baseless and misleading.”
Katz, like Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, has repeatedly threatened a return to fighting and to “exterminate” Hamas, should the Palestinian group break the ceasefire agreement.
For Rodenbeck, the risk is heightened by the fact that Trump’s administration “sort of have given full license to the Israelis to resume fighting if they want to.”
He said that at the same time, Trump appears keen “to wrap this up quickly,” and the Israeli public does not want a war that would jeopardize the lives of hostages still held in Gaza.
What are the main sticking points?
Even before the deal’s announcement on January 15, one of the main issues remains the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land on the Palestinian side of the Egypt-Gaza border, which Israel took control of during the war.
“Maintaining absolute control over the Philadelphi Corridor is non-negotiable from a security standpoint,” Katz said Thursday, particularly to prevent weapons smuggling into Gaza.
Hamas called it a “clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.”
The entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, which Israel says could provide Hamas with “dual use items” that can be repurposed to make weapons, has been another source of friction since the start of the first phase.
But the paramount question remains the role Hamas will play in post-war governance.
Though the group signaled it would be willing to leave administrative and civil matters to a group of Palestinian technocrats, it has not committed to giving up its security control of Gaza, which is unacceptable to Israelis.
“The end of the war cannot be agreed, because Hamas would never agree to be expelled from Gaza and Netanyahu would never ever whatsoever agree to end the war” under those circumstances, commentator Segal said.
