In late July, Israel's security cabinet reached a decision: It authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant "to decide how and when action will be taken against the Hezbollah terrorist organization," as the Prime Minister's office announced. Previously, Netanyahu had threatened the pro-Iranian militia with having to pay a "high price" for a rocket attack targeting a soccer pitch in the Golan Heights that was allegedly carried out by Hezbollah. Twelve young people were killed in the attack.
For its part, Hezbollah stated it hadn't fired the rockets. The militia is designated as a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and others. It is endorsed by Iran. The EU lists Hezbollah's armed wing as a terrorist organization.
At the time, Israel had responded that it did want to strike Hezbollah but did not want to plunge the entire Middle East into war. The statement was made by several unnamed Israeli officials vis-à-vis Reuters news agency.
"The assessment is that the response will not lead to all-out war," Reuters cites one of its sources. "This would run contrary to our interests at this point."
Spending nights away from home, seeking safety
In fact, war-like conditions already prevail in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel, according to Michael Bauer, head of the Beirut office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, who is currently staying in Jordan.
As he pointed out, time and again, the Israeli army had also attacked Hezbollah targets in other parts of the country. "Of course, the Lebanese are now fearing that they could enter into a new phase of the conflict," he said.
They were also afraid of Israel's army selecting further targets and using different weapons systems. A young Lebanese woman who preferred to remain anonymous told DW that she spent the second consecutive night away from her home in Dahieh, because the district was under Hezbollah's control.
Admittedly, the danger of an escalation was not yet incalculably high at this point, but she preferred getting to safety even now.
She wasn't concerned herself, another Lebanese woman said. She believed the risk was still manageable. She was, however, worried about several members of her family who reside in the country's south.
Weak state, weakened society
If the conflict expanded, it would hit an already feeble state. According to a World Bank report, Lebanon has massive debts: its liabilities amount to 180% of GDP, compared to 201% in 2023.
According to another World Bank report, Lebanon's poverty rate has tripled during the last decade, with 44% of the Lebanese population living below the poverty line in 2024.
Inflation at least could shrink this year — from 221% in 2023 to 83% in 2024.
For years, the Lebanese state has been displaying little to no capacity to act. Its flaws were highlighted in August 2020, for example, when 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate detonated in a massive explosion at a storage facility in Beirut's port. As a result, large parts of the city were destroyed. More than 200 people were killed and more than 6,500 were injured in the accident.
Over 30,000 people were forced to leave their homes. Previously, Lebanese authorities had for years neglected to transport the chemicals, which were known to be hazardous, to a safe place.
Other burdens have their roots in neighboring countries. For example, some 1.5 million Syrians came to Lebanon to seek shelter from the war in their native country. The Cedar state is also home to a quarter of a million Palestinian refugees who, partly, have been living in camps for decades.
A potential further escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah confrontation is already beginning to affect Lebanon: international airlines have suspended or completely canceled their flights to and from Beirut.
"In addition, there are tightenings of international travel warnings and urgent repeats of already existing travel warnings," Michael Bauer said. Germany's Foreign Office in Berlin has also called on all Germans to leave Lebanon.
Remaining infrastructure in danger
Months ago, former economy minister and vice-governor of the Lebanese Central Bank, Nasser Saidi, had warned of an expansion of the Israel-Hamas war to the whole of Lebanon. "The economic situation would deteriorate quickly," he told The National newspaper in Abu-Dhabi.
If the situation escalated, the remaining infrastructure, including ports and airport, could possibly be destroyed. "Those are, in the face of the country's considerable dependence on the Lebanese diaspora, Lebanon's economic lifeline."
An expansion of the conflict will likely have catastrophic consequences — that's also the assessment of a study published by the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council in July 2024. This could herald a return to "permanent wars." In addition, Iran-supported fighters from the entire region could join Hezbollah, which would make the conflict even more complex and precarious.
Lebanon would be at the epicenter of those tensions. And, according to Michael Bauer, the country was certainly not capable of coping with another crisis — not to mention a war with Israel.
