From an Asian perspective, Europe looks puzzling. To many, the War has highlighted its lack of strategic autonomy vis a vis the United States. At par in 2007, the latter is now far larger than the European economy. One can understand the Ukraine war is an existential issue for it, but why join the US in ruining ties with China? Moreover, why do its politics look such as mess? Why is it returning to the 1930s – an era when Hugo Boss suits mingled with uniforms and stormtrooper boots? Today, the boots have been discarded but the 'beast' has reawakened and prowling the continent.
This weekend’s elections in Spain has seen a media makeover, masking the underlying continental trend. Partido Popular, with the largest number of seats, came out of the womb of fascist General Franco’s era – known as Accion Popular. One third of Far-Right VOX voters merely returned to PP. The Hard Right has not disappeared. Indeed, real Spain is very right-wing.
The river Ebro marks a political divide. North if it lie much of the Basque and Catalan territories (so-called ‘separatist inclined’), next to France. Of the 350 seats in the Spanish Congress, 284 are found to the south of the Ebro. Of these, around 159 went to VOX or PP. i.e. 55% of Spaniards in most of ‘real Spain’ voted for either the Far-Right or for a hardline Right party. The use of ‘Centre-Right’ for PP is completely misleading.
What is keeping Spain together for ‘progressives’ ironically are the Basque and Catalan parties. When you include them, the Parliament is basically split down the middle and so instability looms.
Things look bad under the hood
The election was fought on culture wars, of which a subset was a fear of the ‘retrograde’ Far-Right joining a governing coalition. Survey after survey showed that the majority of people are deeply anxious about jobs, pensions, soaring cost of living i.e. bread-and-butter issues. Yet, there was no deep philosophical debate about structural change for the country.
Neoliberal economics unites the Big Two Parties (PP and PSOE). The differences in economic management are minimal. The centrist PSOE offers a bit more welfarism but leaves the foundations untouched.
The country, along with the rest of Southern Europe (the infamous PIGS), nearly went belly up during the Euro crisis of 2012. Money printing by the European Central Bank kept southern Europe afloat. It still does. There has been no meaningful structural transformation towards a German-style manufacturing economy. So, the next deep crisis will see a run to the hills.
The elites have enthusiastically gorged on the FIRE economy – Finance, Insurance, Real Estate – and tourism. The ‘jobs growth’ is heavily dependent on tourism – precarious, low paid, low tech, low productivity. Pockets of technical excellence and industrial prowess do exist on the peninsula, (and much of these are situated in the Basque and Catalan lands along with Madrid).
Europe looks ship-wrecked
The dog that didn’t bark was the failure of the PP and Vox to win more than 176 seats out of the 350 total. They won 169 seats. Close but not close enough. Media editors had the articles ready for ‘Another One bites the Dust’, as in the onward march of the Hard Right. Be patient. This may be postponed until the next election this winter. If you look beyond Iberia, the picture is grim.
In England, UKIP is the monster from the movie “Alien,” burrowing deep into the Tory Party before emerging through its chest. Nowadays, it is difficult to distinguish between the two. The Far Right in France has been rebadged, with new leadership, and is closer than ever to power. Admittedly, a fear of Marine Le Pen has been pervasive for a decade now, and her party has not won. Nevertheless, the line on the graph continues to rise steadily. It really is becoming too close to call. The recent nationwide riots have been a godsend. Macron is marooned.
In Germany, the Far-Right AfD are on or above 20% in the polls. The bellicose Greens (yes the world is upside down) have collapsed to 14%. The hapless governing coalition, led by a wishy-washy ‘centrist’ SPD is wobbly. The war in Ukraine and the energy debacle (the unmentionable Nordstream anyone?) mark a shift towards the AfD. The industrial behemoths are fearful about their future, made uncompetitive by expensive US LNG gas.
Italy is led by a neo-fascist PM. Note how easy a ride she and her forces have had to date. Cynics suggest that as a member of the Aspen Institute, her close links to a part of the US elite may play a part. Whatever the cause, the Far Right have become acceptable in Western Europe.
Eastern Europe is beyond the pale. The Hard Right consensus in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary is taken as the norm. Scandinavia in the imagination of the Hipster middle class used to seen as cuddly and right-on. It is swinging rapidly towards the Right. Olaf Palme died a long time ago.
The continent needs two things to happen. Firstly, the war must come to a rapid conclusion. Secondly, the conversation needs to shift to an overhaul for Europe in terms of technology upgrade, energy sovereignty and the ditching of neoliberalism. None of this looks remotely likely given the cocooned nature of the political classes. China and the US are seeing a gasping, unfit Europe fall further and further behind in the rear-view mirror.
As sprightly, 100-year young Henry Kissinger visited Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, one recalls his first visit in 1971. Meeting Mao Zedong, the US Secretary of state enquired: “Mr Chairman, I hear that you are learning English.” With a disarming smile, the Chinese leader replied: “yes, but I only know a few words. I also invented the term ‘Paper Tiger’.” That was a dig at US weakness in the Vietnam war.
Later in the meeting, Henry Kissinger told Mao and Zhou Enlai: “What Europe thinks I am not able to judge. They cannot do anything anyway. They are basically irrelevant”. Victoria Nuland said the same thing in a more vulgar way in 2014. How times don’t change. Since 1945 then, Europe has been and remains a Paper Tiger. The future is bright for Eastern Eurasia. The lights are going out in Western Eurasia.
Farid Erkizia Bakht is a political analyst.
