Nearly a year since Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, there are no real signs of a way out of the conflict. Neither side appears primed for an outright military victory, and progress at the negotiating table seems just as unlikely.
Analysts estimate that about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war so far. By comparison, Ukraine has seen some 100,000 killed or wounded in action, and 30,000 civilian deaths.
Meanwhile, neither Russian leader Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows any signs of backing down and abandoning one of the largest military conflicts since the end of World War II. For the civilians caught in the crossfire, that means the bloodshed and suffering brought on by the war has no discernible end.
“Animosity between Russia and Ukraine could sustain this conflict for a long time,” says Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp.
Within days of its initial assault one year ago this Friday, Russia's apparent strategy of a swift capture of Kyiv and toppling of Zelensky's government came face to face with an inconvenient reality: Ukrainian resistance was much stronger than anticipated, thanks in part to years of Western training and arms.
Moscow's forces were unequal to the task. A 40-mile-long stalled Russian convoy along a main highway leading into the capital became symbolic of the Kremlin's military failure.
Russia then shifted its offensive to the south, where its forces captured the city of Mariupol after a devastating siege in an effort to secure a corridor along the Black Sea coast linking the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region, areas Moscow invaded and annexed in 2014.
By late summer and into the fall, however, Ukrainian forces had struck back in a dramatic counteroffensive, routing Russian forces from parts of the south and east and liberating the key city of Kherson.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays owers at a memorial to the Hero Cities on Victory Day in central Moscow May 9, 2022 ReutersSince then, neither side has been able to make substantive advances.
Russia has kept up pressure by using missiles and drones to target Ukraine's cities and infrastructure. It has also engaged in a months-long campaign to capture the eastern city of Bakhmut, but that has made little difference on the tactical map.
Last week, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that an anticipated Russian spring offensive had already begun. Ukraine is also expected to mount a counteroffensive in the coming weeks.
‘Ukraine will prevail'
Zelensky yesterday expressed confidence in his country's victory over Russian forces with fears mounting of strikes.
The nearly year-long conflict has seen Western leaders step up their support for Kyiv, and yesterday G7 ministers discussed new sanctions on Russia as the UN General Assembly prepared to vote on a motion calling for "lasting" peace.
"We have not broken down, we have overcome many ordeals and we will prevail. We will hold to account all those who brought this evil, this war to our land," Zelensky said on social media.
In the capital Kyiv, which saw Russian troops at its doorstep at the start of the invasion last February and relentless attacks on energy infrastructure since, residents remained defiant.
On Wednesday UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres opened the special session of the UN General Assembly by condemning Moscow's February 24, 2022 attack on Ukraine.
"That invasion is an affront to our collective conscience," Guterres said.
He called the anniversary "a grim milestone for the people of Ukraine and for the international community."
Crimea bridge reopens
Moscow yesterday announced the full reopening to car traffic of a key Crimea bridge damaged by a blast in October.
The announcement came on the eve of the first anniversary of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. Moscow blamed Kyiv for the attack on the bridge linking the Moscow-annexed Crimea peninsula to mainland Russia, but Kyiv has denied the charges.
"All lanes of the Crimean bridge are fully open to car traffic 39 days ahead of schedule," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said, quoted by his press service.
On Telegram, Khusnullin said the reopening was a "big gift for the Defender of the Fatherland Day" annual public holiday celebrated in Russia on Thursday.
Khusnullin added that "work was carried out round-the-clock" by around 500 people to complete the repairs.
The Russian government had the bridge to be repaired by July 2023.
Repairs on the railway part of the bridge -- also called the Kerch bridge -- are still on, Khusnullin said.
The Kerch bridge also serves as a vital transport link for carrying military equipment to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
In October, the bridge -- which was personally inaugurated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 -- was partially destroyed in a blast that killed three people.
