There are growing calls for the European Union to bolster its assistance to Myanmar's government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), which is at the head of a resistance movement fighting Myanmar's military junta.
The junta overthrew Myanmar's democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup.
A report published last month by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, a group of independent international experts, estimated that the junta has effective control over less than a fifth of Myanmar's territory, while the NUG and its allies, which include local militias, control 53%.
Brussels has stepped up its engagement and given more exposure to its meetings with the NUG in recent months "to send a strong signal to the junta," a European Commission official, speaking under condition of anonymity, told DW.
"We also carefully avoid legitimizing the junta in international organizations or through bilateral contacts," the official added.
According to a senior official at the NUG foreign ministry, particular attention has been paid to lobbying Germany and France. The NUG established a representative office, a de facto embassy, in France earlier this year. It also has an older one in the Czech Republic.
What has the EU done so far?
Since the coup, the European Parliament has adopted three resolutions on Myanmar, with a fourth expected this week on the junta's crackdown on media freedom.
The European Commission has also adopted several rounds of sanctions targeting the military regime and its aligned businesses.
The EU's fourth and latest tranche of sanctions was announced in February 2022, and activist groups have recently been petitioning European governments with lists of military individuals they want to be sanctioned.
The chances of the EU imposing a fifth round of sanctions against the junta and its associated businesses have increased since late September when Aung San Suu Kyi, the ousted democratically elected leader, three former ministers, and the Australian economist Sean Turnell, were sentenced to three years in prison, ostensibly for violating a colonial-era Official Secrets Act.
Suu Kyi has already been convicted of several other trumped-up crimes and additional charges could see her jailed for 100 years if found guilty.
"Concerned governments should take this as a clear signal that they need to take concerted action against the junta if they are going to turn the human rights situation around in the country," Elaine Pearson, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.
An NUG official told DW that the government is submitting lists of individuals it wants to be sanctioned to the EU through member states.
"We don't know yet when it will be announced. We push all the time for more targeted sanctions and humanitarian assistance," the official said.
Although the EU does not discuss sanction plans, an EU spokesperson told DW that "should the situation continue to deteriorate the EU stands ready to apply a new package of restrictive measures."
Myanmar government-in-exile seeks recognition
The NUG is now doubling down on its demands for official recognition from the EU, which it argues would be a game-changer amid the civil war.
"[EU officials] are still giving many reasons why they can't. They say they want to restore the status quo before the military coup. Their approach is totally wrong," said the NUG official.
In October 2021, the EU Parliament adopted a resolution "supporting" the NUG as the "only legitimate representatives of the democratic wishes of the people of Myanmar." However, this support does not amount to "official" recognition.
Late last month, Heidi Hautala, the European Parliament's vice president responsible for human rights, called on "international actors to fully acknowledge the NUG as what it is, the legitimate government of Myanmar, and to support it accordingly with funding, capacity building initiatives, and diplomatic recognition."
On September 25, a delegation of parliamentarians from Southeast Asia and Europe, including Hautala, traveled to New York to lobby the United Nations, US State Department, and US Congress to support Myanmar's pro-democracy movement.
Hautala also met with Saifuddin Abdullah, the Foreign Minister of Malaysia, the Southeast Asian country that has been the most supportive of the NUG.
Hautala told DW that the EU and its member states can and should help the NUG establish representation in EU capitals and international organizations.
"The EU can also help build the capacity of the NUG and promote good governance. The EU should also facilitate trust-building between the NUG and ethnic organizations to prepare the ground for a peaceful transition to a federal system," Hautala added.
However, to officially acknowledge the NUG as the legitimate government of Myanmar would require unanimity among the EU member states, which is a problem given that getting consensus among 27 countries is difficult on most issues.
And it would also be hard to achieve as some member states have a policy not to recognize governments but countries, Hautala said.
An EU spokesperson said the bloc does recognize the NUG as one of the key stakeholders "who must be engaged to determine the future of the country."
Dialogue with all parties, including the NUG, the ousted National League for Democracy party, and the country's numerous Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), "is essential in restoring the path to democracy," the spokesperson continued.
The issue of supporting Myanmar's government-in-exile has the potential to take center stage during high-level summits in the coming months.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which is still trusted by much of the international community to take a lead in solving the Myanmar crisis, will have its annual summit in November. It could provide Asean the opportunity to take a more decisive stance on whether to give the junta the cold shoulder and increase cooperation with the NUG.
In December, the EU will host its first full summit with the Asean states in Brussels. A European Commission official said that there is likely to be greater European attention to Myanmar in the run-up to the meeting, which could prompt the bloc to actively discuss the question of recognition.
"The most important thing is to have recognition," said an NUG official. "Some European governments are willing to have silent diplomacy with us. But we don't want to be on the side-lines."
