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Dhaka Tribune

What's at stake in the Philippines election?

Neither candidate will advocate a significant economic restructuring, though both have promised to prioritize pandemic recovery and could target investment reforms

Update : 09 May 2022, 09:53 PM

The Philippines holds an election on Monday for a new president, pitting incumbent Vice President Leni Robredo against Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the son of a notorious dictator whose 20-year rule ended in a 1986 uprising.

Here are some of the issues at play:

How would each candidate rule?

Marcos is unlikely to rule like his authoritarian father, although strongman-style leadership could be expected.

This approach proved popular under incumbent Rodrigo Duterte, who cultivated an image as a ruthless, no-nonsense leader who got things done.

If elected, Marcos would probably use his family's influence to consolidate power through transfers, appointments and connections in the bureaucracy, judiciary and other key bodies, replacing potential obstacles with members of his extensive political network.

He could expect a more favourable congress and senate than Robredo.

A Robredo victory would bring a more liberal approach and focus on education, healthcare, poverty and gender equality, while strengthening institutions and oversight and boosting market competition.

She has pledged to improve social welfare, such as unemployment benefits and family support.

However, a Robredo presidency would probably run into turbulence. She has already been a prime target for hate and disinformation campaigns as a vice president who dared to challenge Duterte.

What about the economy?

Neither candidate will advocate a significant economic restructuring, though both have promised to prioritize pandemic recovery and could target investment reforms, such as cutting red tape.

Robredo has pledged to increase investment to tackle climate change, level the playing field for business and promote public-private partnerships.

Marcos has revealed very little about policy and has steered clear of presidential debates and tricky media interviews, focusing on a simple but ambiguous message of unity. Continuity with Duterte is expected, for example on key infrastructure projects.

Some economic risk consultants have seen a higher chance of corruption and nepotism under a Marcos presidency, however, and the scope for score-settling and retaliation against businesses linked to the family's opponents.

What would foreign policy look like?

The Philippines' longstanding ties to former colonial power the United States are unlikely to be threatened by either candidate, having been steady through Duterte's years of very public hostility towards Washington.

The defence alliance is crucial for internal security and military capability, and preserving it is vital for a Philippine president's relationship with the armed forces.

Marcos is seen as the candidate closer to China and could benefit from its business interests. He favours a two-way approach that better suits Beijing but will frustrate advocates of the multilateral approach Robredo is likely to pursue.

Marcos has been pragmatic in recognizing the Philippines is no match militarily, so a tough stance should not be expected. Robredo would oppose Chinese provocations, and remind Beijing that an international arbitral court ruling in 2016 invalidated most of its South China Sea claims.


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