While Algeria’s Islamists were never allowed to govern, Egypt’s Mohammed Morsi ran the country for a year, and a widespread sense that he was author of his own misfortunes may deter some who might have taken up arms in his cause.
But his removal could still split Islamist groups that have entered Egyptian politics since a 2011 uprising toppled Hosni Mubarak, an autocrat who repressed them for decades.
Egyptian Islamists such as the Brotherhood and their erstwhile ultraconservative allies risk losing those followers, especially among the young, who conclude Egypt’s democratic experiment has failed and peaceful politics will get them nowhere.
Morsi’s National Security Adviser Essam El-Haddad wrote in a valedictory Facebook post, “The message will resonate throughout the Muslim World loud and clear: democracy is not for Muslims.”
As authorities rounded up some of the Brotherhood’s most prominent figures, one of its senior members, Mohamed El-Beltagy, laid bare the dangers at a pro-Morsi sit-in outside a Cairo mosque on Thursday.
“The issue now is the position of the free world that is pushing the country to a state of chaos and pushing groups other than the Brotherhood to return to the idea of change by force.”
The rhetoric has heated up since the army first said it might intervene after millions of protesters flooded the streets to demand Morsi’s resignation.
“You’ve made new mujahideen, new people who will seek martyrdom. Know that if one out of every 10 of those here blows himself up, you are the reason,” said one man, referring to army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, in a YouTube video purportedly taken at a large pro-Morsi rally in Cairo this week.
Hours before the army removed Morsi, Mohamed Nufil, a 44-year-old government employee at the same rally, said he was certain the president’s supporters would turn to violence if the army aborted what they saw as a legitimate democratic process.
“If there is a coup, Egypt will have two options: It will become like Syria, or it will become like Algeria in the ‘90s. That is the alternative. It will happen,” he said.
Most Morsi supporters see the military intervention as a coup, while Egyptian authorities say they were merely responding to the demands of the Egyptian people.
Violent Precedents
Egypt has been a crucible of militant Islamist movements for decades, and its government a regular focus of their ire.
The three main presidents that have served since 1952, when a coup installed military-backed rule, have all accused Islamists of trying to kill them. In the case of Anwar Sadat, who made peace with Israel, they succeeded.
In the 1990s, Islamist insurgents waged a bloody campaign against security forces in southern Egypt.
Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya, which carried out some of the most deadly attacks, eventually renounced violence and formed a political party after Mubarak was toppled.
But some Gamaa members have said publicly that they would take up arms again to defend Morsi, a threat the group’s leaders are now trying to play down, and which is controversial among the Islamist rank and file.
“If the army dares to kill democracy in Egypt, we will fight them,” Mohamed al-Amin, a 40-year-old Gamaa member, said hours ahead of the army decree, gesturing to the thousands of supporters who had gathered at the pro-Morsi rally in Cairo.
Sobhy Youssef, 45, a Brotherhood supporter sitting nearby, interrupted him: “No, no, my brother,” he said. “We are not taking up weapons. What we are taking up is our patience and our faith in God.”
Khalil al-Anani, an expert on political Islam at Britain’s Durham University, said the risk of low-level violence in Egypt was significant, especially in the Sinai Peninsula, which has descended into lawlessness since Mubarak was ousted.
