On Thursday the Mail & Guardian published a comment piece on the economic cost of the Covid-19 lockdown.
The article by Alex Broadbent arguing that the biggest public health risk in Africa is not Covid-19, but the consequences of regional and global measures designed to reduce its effect on public health.
By far the biggest risk factor for fatal Covid-19 is age. Worldometer estimates the case fatality rate in the 10 to 30 age categories at 0.2%. Under the age of 10, it’s 0.0%. A recent paper in The Lancet estimated a 0.32% fatality rate in its study population of people aged 60 under, and 6.4% death rate for people over the age of 60.
In South Africa, the average male dies before the age of 60, and 3% of the population is over 65. The median age in Africa is 18. In Europe, it’s 42.
Africa is the world’s youngest continent, by far.
Broadbent asked, whether African nations have as much reason to fear Covid-19 as regions where so much of the population is older.
Africa has not been as badly hit by the coronavirus pandemic as some other parts of the world, but the economy is being pummelled.
Here's a look at the main issues.
Perfect storm recession
For the first time in 25 years sub-Saharan Africa is about to go into recession, according to World Bank estimates.
Following 2.4% growth last year, the estimate for 2020 is between -2.1% and -5.1% as the economy contracts.
This is in part a knock-on effect from the economic hits being taken by Africa's main trading partners: China, the EU and the United States.
Tens of millions of jobs in danger
The African Union estimates that around 20 million jobs, in formal and informal sectors, are under threat.
The United Nations puts the figure much higher, at up to 50 million.
Money transfers from diaspora drop
High unemployment and economic slowdown are also hitting African workers abroad, and therefore their money transfers back home, which are often a vital part of the economy.
The transfers to Mali in 2018 represented 5.5%, according to Bloomfield Investment analysts.
The figure for Senegal was 10%.
These cash transfers are expected to fall significantly with more than half the world's population in some kind of lockdown.
Coffee and cocoa markets threatened
In Ethiopia, Africa's largest coffee producer, exporters are already experiencing a "devastating shock," according to Gizat Worku, head of the country's Coffee Exporters Association.
Business from the main importers in Europe and the US is at a standstill.
Coffee brings in five percent of the country's GDP and directly employs 25 million people, out of a population of 110 million.
In the short term the crisis is unlikely to have a major impact on the cocoa market, according to the Michel Arrion, head of the International Cocoa Organization, because the main importers have around 1.8 million tons of stock, equal to four or five months production.
But "there is a real fear among planters of a long-term drop in prices," said Moussa Kone, president of the growers union in Ivory Coast which produces 40 percent of the world market in "brown gold" and employs up to six million people.
Stemming the crisis
Several African nations have announced economic and social support plans.
But with less than 20% of the population formally employed, with social security systems non-existent in the informal sector and with national coffers in a poor state before even before the current crisis, "the situation is particularly critical for Africa", according to the Finactu accountancy firm which operates in 30 African countries.
It will take some kind of African "Marshall Plan" from the international community and a significant debt write-off to get Africa back on its feet, says Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou.
