An enduring and trusted intelligence-sharing pact, known as the Five Eyes Intelligence, binds together five developed nations: the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. This cooperative agreement has been the bedrock of information exchange, covering even the most sensitive matters pertaining to their respective national interests and security. Over time, this arrangement has operated seamlessly.
However, a recent development saw the prime minister of Canada communicating with his Five Eyes Intelligence counterparts before making startling allegations against India in the Canadian Parliament.
The claim suggested that Indian intelligence was implicated in the murder of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Consequently, a joint statement by all alliance members was anticipated, exerting collective pressure on India.
Notably, the Five Eyes Intelligence did not reach a consensus on this proposal. Consequently, Prime Minister Trudeau presented the allegation alone in the Canadian Parliament. Responding to this, allies like the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom only issued standard statements that said they express “serious concern”.
During his parliamentary address, Prime Minister Trudeau asserted that his government deemed the allegation of India's involvement in the killing as credible.
However, he did not provide any substantiating evidence for this claim, leaving unanswered questions regarding the nature of the evidence collected by Canada's intelligence agencies.
In the wake of Trudeau's speech, his Foreign Minister Melanie Joly remarked that if the allegations were proven, it would constitute a violation of Canadian sovereignty. This suggests that Canada's intelligence investigation remains ongoing or that any evidence they may have is not ready to be disclosed yet.
As a result, it is not difficult to understand why the partners of Five Eyes Intelligence had refused to make a joint statement at this stage.
Why did Trudeau make the allegation?
The motives behind Canada's prime minister recklessly making such serious allegations against a friendly nation were explored by speaking to former diplomats, observers, and researchers in Delhi.
Their collective opinion is that Justin Trudeau's actions stem from an attempt to bolster his political standing within Canada. It is suggested that Trudeau has been willing to compromise Canada's economic interests in the process.
Dr Radha Gulati, an international relations analyst, said that there is no doubt that Trudeau's decision is heavily influenced by the "Sikh vote bank" within Canada.
Dr Gulati said: “You have to remember that Trudeau governs with a minority government, and the support of Sikh Members of Parliament from various parties is pivotal for his administration's stability. Consequently, he openly aligns with pro-Khalistan sentiments to retain this crucial political support.”
Furthermore, it is worth noting that Jagmeet Singh leads the NDP (National Democratic Party), the fourth-largest party in the Canadian Parliament. Jagmeet Singh is not only Sikh but also a vocal supporter of the Khalistan movement. Given that Jagmeet Singh's party holds 25 seats in Parliament, while Trudeau's Liberal Party is 10 seats short of a majority, Trudeau's government relies on the NDP's support to pass significant bills. Consequently, the prime minister is strategically leveraging the "Khalistani card" to maintain support among Sikh communities, Dr Gulati explained.
Highlighting the demographics, Dr Gulati pointed out that Sikhs constitute slightly over 2% of Canada's population. However, in several constituencies, they hold considerable influence due to cohesive voting patterns within their community.
“This phenomenon has made Sikh-appeasement politics a well-recognized strategy in Canada, and Trudeau is actively pursuing this approach,” she said.
Nevertheless, observers argue that the Canadian government's support for Khalistanists, ostensibly in the name of freedom of speech and movement, is fraught with duplicity and hypocrisy.
Many of the Khalistani leaders active in Canada have faced specific accusations of involvement in terrorist activities in India.
Notably, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, at the center of the controversy, was previously on India's most-wanted list. A few years ago, Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh handed over a list of terrorists, including Nijjar, to Trudeau during his visit to Delhi.
Pro-Khalistan organizations in Canada have repeatedly organized violent protests in front of Indian embassies in Toronto, Ottawa, or Vancouver.
More recently, they displayed tableaus in Canada glorifying the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards in 1984. Remarkably, Canadian authorities have taken no action against those involved in these incidents.
Calculated political move
Krishen Chander Singh (better known as KC Singh), a former secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs and former Indian ambassador, views Trudeau's actions as a calculated political move rather than a genuine concern.
He said: “Trudeau’s move appears to me to be mere cheap politics, as nothing has happened in Punjab recently to generate renewed public support for Khalistan. I can swear that 99% or more Punjabis in India do not want a separate state for themselves at all.”
Even among the extensive Sikh diaspora in countries like Canada, the USA, Australia, and Britain, KC Singh believes that only a small faction supports Khalistan.
However, these politically active minorities, often congregating in Gurudwaras, attract attention from mainstream politicians seeking their support, he said.
KC Singh also draws attention to the unusual nature of the incident, where a senior Indian diplomat is being expelled from a G-7 and NATO member country. This, in his view, is a rare and exceptional occurrence.
Point of no return
Consequently, many observers argue that Canada's actions have pushed the issue to a point of no return in diplomatic terms, making it extremely challenging to restore the previous amicable relationship with India.
Dr Rishi Gupta, a research fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, asserted that the Canadian government's actions indicate a lack of regard for its long-term relationship with India. He highlighted that discussions on free trade agreements between the two nations, which had made significant progress, were abruptly terminated.
Experts emphasize that India's enormous market, abundant labor resources, and substantial commercial potential are highly attractive to Western countries. Despite this, the Trudeau government seems willing to compromise its nation's interests for short-term internal political gains.
While Trudeau has made bold moves against India, it remains to be seen how much support he will garner from his Western partners. The US, in particular, values its relationship with India as a counterbalance to China, as evident in its participation in the Quad Alliance. The initial reluctance of the Five Eyes Intelligence alliance to issue a joint statement indicates caution among Canada's allies about becoming embroiled in this dispute.
Prof Harsh V Panth, who researches foreign policy at the ORF think tank in Delhi, said: “Justin Trudeau has turned the incident into a personal fight. That’s why I think the issue will ultimately remain in the realm of Canada-India bilateral relations, with the wider Western world not wanting to get involved. Because there will be a risk of unduly disrupting their separate strategic interests with India.”
